NHL
NHL · Monday 2 November
Avalanche vs Blackhawks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Avalanche. Our number makes Colorado a 68.3% winner, 1.4 points from the price, short of our 5-point bar.
The Colorado Avalanche are -230 and the Chicago Blackhawks +190 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 66.9% for Colorado and 33.1% for Chicago. Our number is 68.3% and 31.7%. The gap is 1.4 points toward the visitors. That is too small to bet.
How 31.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Blackhawks went 14-19-8 at United Center, a 34.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Avalanche went 29-7-5 on the road, 7 regulation losses and 5 after regulation, a 29.3% road loss rate. Average the two and Chicago is 31.7%, Colorado 68.3%.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +190 and -230 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Blackhawks are 33.1% and the Avalanche 66.9%. Our 68.3% sits 1.4 points above the price’s 66.9%. The threshold is 5.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method. The Blackhawks are 4-9-1, 4-4-0 at home, and lost 5-4 in overtime at Boston on Saturday 31 October. Spencer Knight has played 11 of their games and Arvid Soderblom 3. The Avalanche are 8-5-1, 2-4-0 on the road, and beat Calgary 5-2 on Saturday. Mackenzie Blackwood has played 10 of their games and Scott Wedgewood 4.
Chicago at home, Colorado on the road
At home last season the Blackhawks scored 2.61 a game and allowed 3.29, a deficit of 0.68. On the road the Avalanche scored 3.54 and allowed 2.32, a surplus of 1.22. Those are the two halves in our number.
The halves the method leaves out: Chicago on the road went 15-20-6, a 36.6% win rate, scoring 2.59 and allowing 3.41. Colorado at home went 26-9-6, 63.4%, scoring 3.83 and allowing 2.63. Both teams had a higher win rate away from their own arena than in it. Neither of those halves is in our number.
The season around it
The Avalanche went 55-16-11 with 121 points and a goal difference of +99. In the playoffs they swept the Los Angeles Kings 4-0, beat the Minnesota Wild 4-1, then were swept 0-4 by the Vegas Golden Knights. The Blackhawks went 29-39-14 with 72 points, a goal difference of -62, and missed the playoffs.
Colorado won by two goals or more in 41 of 82 games and lost by two or more in 12. Chicago lost by two or more in 31 of 82. In one-goal games the Avalanche went 14-4-11 and won 7 of the 18 that went past regulation. The Blackhawks went 13-8-14 in one-goal games and won 7 of their 21 past 60 minutes.
The Avalanche won all three meetings in 2025-26. Two were at United Center, 1-0 on 23 November 2025 and 4-1 on 20 March 2026, and both are in each half of our number. The third, 3-1 on 28 February 2026, was in Colorado’s arena and is in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this game. The gap is 1.4 points toward the Avalanche against a threshold of 5. The price is right by our measure, and a 1.4-point gap is noise, not an edge.
The line read Avalanche -230 and Blackhawks +190 on 1 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices and has not moved.
What kills the bet
Here, what would make one. Colorado becomes a bet at -172 or longer whatever Chicago is priced at; against Chicago at +190, it becomes a bet at -147 or longer. The Avalanche are -230.
For the Blackhawks to become the bet, they would need to be +274 or longer whatever Colorado’s price, or +293 or longer against Colorado at -230. They are +190.
ESPN’s injury list has Josh Manson out with an ankle injury for Colorado, Logan O’Connor day-to-day for personal reasons and Zachary L’Heureux on injured reserve with an upper-body injury. Chicago lists Bowen Byram as day-to-day with an upper-body injury. No goalie is on either list, so nothing here re-runs the method. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -135 and under +114. The Blackhawks’ games went over 5.5 in 42 of 82, the Avalanche’s in 43 of 82. Chicago’s home games averaged 5.9 goals, Colorado’s road games 5.86.
That is 51.2% and 52.4%, an average of 51.8% for the over. With the margin out the over is priced at 55.1% and the under at 44.9%. Our number sits 3.3 points toward the under, below the threshold. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Colorado is -1.5 at +105 and Chicago +1.5 at -125, which is 46.8% and 53.2% without the margin. The Avalanche won by two or more in 41 of 82 games and the Blackhawks lost by two or more in 31 of 82. Averaged, Avalanche -1.5 lands 43.9% of the time against 46.8% priced, a 2.9-point gap toward Blackhawks +1.5. That is under 5, and our method stakes the moneyline only. No bet on this game.
Avalanche at Blackhawks, Monday 2 November, 8:00 PM ET, United Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 1 November 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 1 November 2026, 17:32 UTC.