NHL
NHL · Sunday 1 November
Oilers vs Rangers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Take the Oilers on the moneyline. With Igor Shesterkin out, our number is run on the Rangers‘ home games without him, and it makes Edmonton a 59.8% winner against the price’s 46.8%.
The Edmonton Oilers are +105 and the New York Rangers -125 at DraftKings, read 31 October 2026 at 15:34 UTC. With the margin out, that is 46.8% for Edmonton and 53.2% for New York. Our number is 59.8% for Edmonton. The gap is 13.0 points, and that gap is the whole argument.
How 59.8% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both splits.
Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a knee injury (ESPN injury list, read 31 October 2026, 15:34 UTC; entry dated 11 October 2026, with 15 September 2027 given as his return date). When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Shesterkin appeared in 51 of New York’s 82 games last season, ahead of Jonathan Quick’s 25, Spencer Martin’s 6 and Dylan Garand’s 3, and in 26 of the 41 home games. In the 15 home games he did not play, the Rangers went 4-9-2, a 26.67% home win rate. Fifteen clears our minimum of 10 games at that venue. The re-run stands.
The Oilers went 19-16-6 on the road, a 53.7% road loss rate over 41 games. Average 26.67% with 53.7% and the Rangers are 40.2%, the Oilers 59.8%. That is 13.0 points better for Edmonton than the price.
The full home season gives the same side. The Rangers went 14-20-7 at Madison Square Garden, a 34.1% home win rate; on that number New York is 43.9% and the gap is 9.3 points toward Edmonton. Taking Shesterkin out widens the gap. It does not create it.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -125 and +105 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Rangers are 53.2% and the Oilers 46.8%.
Every input is from 2025-26: New York’s 15 home games without Shesterkin and Edmonton’s 41 road games. This season is not in the figures, and part of it cuts against the pick. The Rangers are 7-6-1, 6-1-0 at home, and lost 6-3 to the Los Angeles Kings on Monday 26 October. Shesterkin has played five of their games, Garand ten and James Reimer one. The Oilers are 9-2-2, 5-0-0 on the road, and beat the Calgary Flames 4-0 on Wednesday 28 October. Devon Levi has played seven of their games and Tristan Jarry six. A seven-game home start is too few games to be a rate, and it is outside the method.
New York at home, Edmonton on the road
Over the full season the Rangers at home scored 2.59 a game and allowed 3.02, a deficit of 0.43. The Oilers on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.15, a surplus of 0.24.
The halves the method leaves out: New York on the road went 19-19-2, a 47.5% win rate, scoring 3.17 and allowing 3.12. Edmonton at home went 22-14-5, 53.7%, scoring 3.49 and allowing 3.41. The Rangers were a better team away from their own arena than in it. That half is not in our number.
The season around it
The Oilers went 41-30-11 with 93 points and outscored opponents by 13, then lost their playoff series 4-2 to the Anaheim Ducks. The Rangers went 34-39-9 with 77 points, were outscored by 12, and missed the playoffs.
Close games split the two less than the standings do. Edmonton went 13-11-11 in one-goal games and won 9 of the 20 that went past regulation. New York went 11-12-9 in one-goal games and won 9 of its 18 past 60 minutes. The Oilers lost by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games, the Rangers in 27 of 82.
The teams split two meetings in 2025-26. Edmonton won 2-0 at Madison Square Garden on 14 October 2025; that game counts in the Oilers’ road rate, one half of our number. New York won 4-3 in overtime in Edmonton on 30 October 2025, which is in neither half.
Pick: Oilers +105
Bet the Oilers on the moneyline at +105. The gap is 13.0 points toward Edmonton on the Rangers’ home games without Shesterkin, against a threshold of 5, and 9.3 on the full home season.
The line read Oilers +105 and Rangers -125 on 31 October 2026 at 15:34 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at +110 and -130. Since the open the market has moved toward Edmonton: 45.7% for the Oilers then, 46.8% now.
What kills the bet
A shorter Edmonton price. At -121 or longer the Oilers are a bet whatever New York is priced at; against the Rangers at -125, they stay a bet down to -207.
For the Rangers to become the bet, they would have to be +184 or longer whatever Edmonton’s price, or +277 or longer against the Oilers at +105. They are -125.
The rest is on the ice. Besides Shesterkin, ESPN’s injury list has Braden Schneider, Sean Durzi and Eeli Tolvanen day-to-day for New York, and Reimer day-to-day with an upper-body injury. Edmonton lists Zach Hyman, Alec Regula and Matt Savoie on injured reserve, along with two goalies, Levi and Frederik Andersen. Our re-run covers Shesterkin only. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -108 and under -112. The Rangers’ games went over 6.5 in 32 of 82, the Oilers’ in 48 of 82. New York’s home games averaged 5.61 goals, Edmonton’s road games 6.54.
That is 39.0% and 58.5%, an average of 48.8% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%, so our number leans to the under by 0.8 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, New York is -1.5 at +190 and Edmonton +1.5 at -230, which is 33.1% and 66.9% without the margin. Over the full season the Rangers won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games, and the Oilers lost by two or more in 19 of 82. Averaged, Rangers -1.5 lands 25.6% of the time against 33.1% priced, a gap of 7.5 points toward Oilers +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, on the same side. One bet on this game: the Oilers at +105.
Oilers at Rangers, Sunday 1 November, 6:00 PM ET, Madison Square Garden. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 31 October 2026, 15:34 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; New York’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 31 October 2026, 15:34 UTC.