Senators vs Ducks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Ducks at home. With Linus Ullmark out, our number is run on Ottawa’s road games without him, and it makes Anaheim a 63.6% winner against the price’s 50.4%.

The Anaheim Ducks are -112 and the Ottawa Senators -108 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 50.4% for Anaheim and 49.6% for Ottawa. The price calls this a coin flip. Our number has the Ducks clear.

How 63.6% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.

Ullmark is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury (ESPN injury list, read 31 October 2026, 15:34 UTC). He has been listed since 22 October, with 7 November given as his return date. When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Ullmark appeared in 49 of Ottawa’s 82 games last season. Leevi Merilainen played 20, James Reimer 14, Mads Sogaard 2 and Hunter Shepard 1. Ullmark played 25 of the 41 road games. In the 16 he missed, the Senators went 5-9-2, a 68.75% road loss rate. Sixteen games clears our minimum of 10.

The Ducks went 24-13-4 at Honda Center, a 58.5% home win rate over 41 games. Average 58.5% with 68.75% and the Ducks are 63.6%, the Senators 36.4%. That is 13.2 points better for Anaheim than the price.

Our threshold is 5 points. Below it we pass, whatever the side.

The full road season does not get there on its own. The Senators went 21-15-5 away from home, a 48.8% road loss rate. On that number Anaheim is 53.7%, a gap of 3.3 points, and the verdict is pass. The bet exists because Ullmark is out. If he plays, it is gone.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -112 and -108 they come to 104.8%. Taken out, the Ducks are 50.4% and the Senators 49.6%.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. The Ducks are 5-7-1, and 1-4-1 at home. They lost 7-6 to Buffalo on Thursday 29 October. Lukas Dostal has played nine of their games and Ville Husso five. The Senators are 8-5-1, 3-3-1 on the road, and lost 6-5 in overtime in Los Angeles the same night. Ullmark played eight of their games before going on the list, Samuel Ersson six and Jonas Johansson three. Ersson and Johansson are not among the four goalies who played behind Ullmark in 2025-26, so the 16-game sample was played with a different crease. That is a limit of the re-run, stated here, and it does not change the call.

Anaheim at home, Ottawa on the road

At home last season the Ducks scored 3.54 a game and allowed 3.49, a surplus of 0.05. The Senators on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.37, a surplus of 0.02. Two near-zero numbers. The goal rates alone would not separate these teams.

The halves the method leaves out: Anaheim on the road went 19-20-2, a 46.3% win rate, scoring 3.12 and allowing 3.54. Ottawa at home went 23-12-6, 56.1%, scoring 3.39 and allowing 2.63. The Senators were the stronger team in their own arena, with a surplus of 0.76, and that half is not in our number.

The season around it

Over the full season the Senators were the better team by 7 points. Ottawa went 44-27-11 with 99 points and outscored opponents by 32, then lost 4-0 to Carolina in the first round. Anaheim went 43-33-6 with 92 points despite being outscored by 15. The Ducks beat Edmonton 4-2 in their first series before losing 4-2 to Vegas.

That gap between points and goal difference comes from close games. The Ducks went 24-6-6 in one-goal games and won 17 of the 23 that went past regulation. The Senators went 16-10-11 in one-goal games and won 6 of their 17 past 60 minutes. Anaheim lost by two goals or more in 27 of 82 games. Ottawa won by two or more in 28.

Ottawa won both meetings in 2025-26. The Senators won 3-2 in Anaheim on 20 November 2025, a game that counts in the Ducks’ home half of our number. They won 2-0 at home on 14 March 2026, which is in neither half.

Pick: Ducks -112

Bet the Ducks on the moneyline at -112. The gap is 13.2 points toward Anaheim on Ottawa’s 16 road games without Ullmark, against a threshold of 5. On the full road season it is 3.3, under the threshold.

The line read Ducks -112 and Senators -108 on 31 October 2026 at 15:34 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, -112 and -108, and has not moved.

What kills the bet

A shorter Anaheim price. At -141 or longer the Ducks are a bet whatever Ottawa is priced at. Against Ottawa at -108, they stay a bet down to -279.

For the Senators to become the bet, they would have to be +218 or longer. They are -108.

Ullmark is the whole case. His listed return date is 7 November, after this game; if he is cleared early and starts, our number goes back to 53.7% and this is a pass. Besides Ullmark, ESPN’s injury list has Warren Foegele and William Eklund on injured reserve for Ottawa, Andre Burakovsky day-to-day with a lower-body injury, and Hayden Hodgson suspended. Anaheim lists Pavel Mintyukov, Ian Moore, Ryan Poehling and Troy Terry on injured reserve. No other goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -112 and under -108. The Ducks’ games went over 6.5 in 49 of 82, the Senators’ in 40 of 82. Anaheim’s home games averaged 7.03 goals, Ottawa’s road games 6.76.

That is 59.8% and 48.8%, an average of 54.3% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 50.4%, so our number leans to the over by 3.8 points. That is under 5. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Anaheim is -1.5 at +200 and Ottawa +1.5 at -245, which is 31.9% and 68.1% without the margin. Over the full season the Ducks won by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games, and the Senators lost by two or more in 17 of 82. Averaged, Ducks -1.5 lands 22.0% of the time against 31.9% priced, a gap of 10.0 points toward Senators +1.5. That sits with the moneyline call: last season Anaheim won close, by one goal or past regulation, far more often than by two. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so the puck line is not a bet. One bet on this game: the Ducks at -112.

Senators at Ducks, Sunday 1 November, 8:00 PM ET, Honda Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 31 October 2026, 15:34 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Ottawa’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores of all 82 games. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 31 October 2026, 15:34 UTC.