NHL
NHL · Sunday 1 November
Mammoth vs Flyers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Flyers at +130. Our number makes Philadelphia a 48.8% winner at home, and the price has them at 41.7%.
The Utah Mammoth at Philadelphia Flyers is priced Flyers +130 and Mammoth -155 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 41.7% for Philadelphia and 58.3% for Utah. Our number is 48.8% and 51.2%. The 7.1-point gap toward the Flyers is the whole argument.
How 48.8% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. That threshold is set before any price is read.
The Flyers went 20-13-8 at home, a 48.8% home win rate. The Mammoth went 21-17-3 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate. The two rates are the same, so the average is 48.8% for Philadelphia and 51.2% for Utah.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +130 and -155 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Flyers are 41.7% and the Mammoth 58.3%. Against our 48.8%, the gap is 7.1 points, above the threshold of 5.
There is no absence here that re-runs the method. Both injury lists are below, and neither carries a goalie.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures, and it has gone badly for Philadelphia. The Flyers are 3-8-4, 2-3-3 at home, and lost 5-2 at Washington on Wednesday 28 October. Joseph Woll has played eight of their games and Dan Vladar seven. The Mammoth are 9-5-0, 5-3-0 on the road, and won 4-3 in overtime at Pittsburgh on Thursday 29 October. Karel Vejmelka has played 11 of their games and Sebastian Cossa five. None of that moves our number.
Philadelphia at home, Utah on the road
The half of the Flyers’ season in our number is the weaker one. At home they scored 2.71 a game and allowed 2.76, a deficit of 0.05. The Mammoth on the road scored 3.2 and allowed 2.83, a surplus of 0.37.
The halves the method leaves out point the other way for Philadelphia. The Flyers went 23-14-4 on the road, a 56.1% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.17. The Mammoth went 22-16-3 at home, 53.7%, scoring 3.34 and allowing 3.02. Philadelphia was the better road team of the two, and that is not in our number.
The 2025-26 season
The Flyers finished 43-27-12 with 98 points and a goal difference of +7. They beat Pittsburgh 4-2 in the playoffs, then were swept 4-0 by Carolina. The Mammoth finished 43-33-6 with 92 points and a goal difference of +28, and lost 4-2 to Vegas in the first round.
Philadelphia lived in close games. The Flyers went 17-5-12 in one-goal games and won 16 of the 28 that went past regulation. Utah went 16-11-6 in one-goal games and won 10 of its 16 past 60 minutes. Each team lost by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games.
Utah won both meetings in 2025-26. The 3-0 Mammoth win in Philadelphia on Thursday 5 March is inside both halves of our number. The 5-4 overtime win in Utah on Wednesday 21 January is in neither. Two games prove nothing about this one.
Pick: Flyers +130
Bet the Flyers on the moneyline at +130. The gap is 7.1 points toward Philadelphia, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Flyers +130 and Mammoth -155 on 31 October 2026 at 15:34 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, +130 and -155, so the market has not moved since opening.
What kills the bet
A shorter Philadelphia price. At +129 or longer the Flyers are a bet whatever Utah is priced at; against the Mammoth at -155, they stay a bet down to +111.
For the Mammoth to become the bet, they would have to be +117 or longer whatever the Flyers’ price, or +168 or longer against the Flyers at +130. They are -155.
The rest is on the ice. Philadelphia’s 3-8-4 start is outside our number. ESPN’s injury list, read 31 October 2026 at 15:34 UTC, has Rasmus Ristolainen, Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny and Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve for the Flyers. For the Mammoth it lists John Marino as out, with Michael Carcone and Maveric Lamoureux on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +114 and under -135. The Flyers’ games went over 6.5 in 34 of 82, a 41.5% rate. The Mammoth’s went over in 38 of 82, 46.3%. Philadelphia’s home games averaged 5.47 goals and Utah’s road games 6.03.
The average of those two rates is 43.9% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 44.9% and the under at 55.1%. Our number leans to the under by 1.0 point, well short of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Utah is -1.5 at +142 and Philadelphia +1.5 at -170, which is 39.6% and 60.4% without the margin. Over the full season the Mammoth won by two goals or more in 27 of 82 games, and the Flyers lost by two or more in 22 of 82. Averaged, Mammoth -1.5 lands 29.9% of the time against 39.6% priced, a gap of 9.7 points toward Flyers +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Flyers at +130.
Mammoth at Flyers, Sunday 1 November, 4:00 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 31 October 2026, 15:34 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 31 October 2026, 15:34 UTC.