NHL
NHL · Saturday 31 October
Oilers vs Islanders Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Islanders at +114. Our number makes New York a 53.7% winner at home against Edmonton; the odds say 44.9%.
The New York Islanders are +114 and the Edmonton Oilers -135 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 44.9% for New York and 55.1% for Edmonton. The price has the visitors as the favourite. Our number has the Islanders ahead, by 53.7% to 46.3%.
How 53.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.
The Islanders went 22-17-2 at UBS Arena, a 53.7% home win rate. The Oilers went 19-16-6 on the road, a 53.7% road loss rate. The two rates are the same, so the average is 53.7% for the Islanders and 46.3% for the Oilers. That is 8.8 points better for New York than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +114 and -135 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Islanders are 44.9% and the Oilers 55.1%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures, and it has started well for both teams. The Oilers are 9-2-2 and 5-0-0 on the road, and beat Calgary 4-0 on Wednesday, 28 October. Devon Levi has played seven of their games and Tristan Jarry six. The Islanders are 7-4-2, 4-1-1 at home, and won 4-3 in overtime in Minnesota on Thursday, 29 October. Ilya Sorokin has played nine of their games and Semyon Varlamov four. None of that moves our number.
New York at home, Edmonton on the road
Over the full season the Islanders at home scored 2.93 a game and allowed 2.98, a deficit of 0.05. The Oilers on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.15, a surplus of 0.24. On goals alone Edmonton’s road half looks the better of the two. On results it was not: 19 road wins against 22 road losses.
The halves the method leaves out: New York on the road went 21-17-3, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 2.76 and allowing 2.90. Edmonton at home went 22-14-5, 53.7%, scoring 3.49 and allowing 3.41. Neither team was much different away from its own arena, and neither of those halves is in our number.
The season around it
Over the full season these two finished close in the standings. Edmonton went 41-30-11 with 93 points, outscored opponents by 13, and lost a playoff series 2-4 to Anaheim. New York went 43-34-5 with 91 points, was outscored by 8, and missed the playoffs.
The Islanders won close games. They went 27-11-5 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 19 that went past regulation. Edmonton went 13-11-11 in one-goal games and won 9 of its 20 past 60 minutes. That is the shape of a team whose record is better than its goal difference, and it is in the home half we use only through results.
New York won both meetings in 2025-26. The 4-2 win at UBS Arena on Thursday, 16 October 2025 is inside our number, in both halves. The 1-0 win in Edmonton on Thursday, 15 January 2026 is in neither half.
Pick: Islanders +114
Bet the Islanders on the moneyline at +114. The gap is 8.8 points toward New York against a threshold of 5. Below 5 points we pass.
The line read Islanders +114 and Oilers -135 on 30 October 2026 at 19:04 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, +114 and -135. The market has not moved.
What kills the bet
A shorter New York price. At +106 or longer the Islanders are a bet whatever Edmonton is priced at. Against the Oilers at -135, they stay a bet down to -120.
For the Oilers to become the bet, they would have to be +142 or longer. They are -135.
The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list, read 30 October 2026 at 19:03 UTC, has Devon Levi and Frederik Andersen on injured reserve for Edmonton. Levi has played seven of the Oilers’ games this season. The same list has Zach Hyman, Alec Regula and Matt Savoie on injured reserve. For New York it has Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov, Matias Maccelli and Calum Ritchie on injured reserve, and Ryan Pulock day-to-day with an upper-body injury. None of these changes our number; the method is re-run only for a team’s starting goalie measured over last season, and the analysis carries no such re-run here. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -102 and under -118. The Islanders’ games went over 6.5 in 36 of 82, the Oilers’ in 48 of 82. New York’s home games averaged 5.91 goals, Edmonton’s road games 6.54.
That is 43.9% and 58.5%, an average of 51.2% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 48.3% and the under at 51.7%, so our number leans to the over by 3.0 points. That is under the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Edmonton is -1.5 at +185 and New York +1.5 at -225, which is 33.6% and 66.4% without the margin. Over the full season the Oilers won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games, and the Islanders lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Averaged, Oilers -1.5 lands 31.1% of the time against 33.6% priced, a gap of 2.5 points toward Islanders +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, on the same side. One bet on this game: the Islanders at +114.
Oilers at Islanders, Saturday 31 October, 2:00 PM ET, UBS Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 30 October 2026, 19:04 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 30 October 2026, 19:03 UTC.