Blues vs Red Wings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Take the Red Wings on the moneyline. Our number has Detroit winning 54.9% at home, and the price gives them 48.3%.

The Detroit Red Wings are -102 and the St. Louis Blues -118 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 48.3% for Detroit and 51.7% for St. Louis. The market makes the visitors a slight favourite. Our number makes the home team the favourite, and the gap between the two is 6.6 points.

How 54.9% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.

The Red Wings went 21-16-4 at Little Caesars Arena, a 51.2% home win rate. The Blues went 17-19-5 on the road, a 58.5% road loss rate. Averaged, Detroit is 54.9% and St. Louis 45.1%. Against the market’s 48.3%, that is 6.6 points toward Detroit.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -102 and -118 they come to 104.6%. With it taken out, the Red Wings are 48.3% and the Blues 51.7%.

The price has moved against our side since it opened. Detroit opened at -118 and St. Louis at -102, which was 51.7% for the Red Wings. The market now gives the Blues 3.5 points more than at the open. Our number has not moved, because none of its inputs have.

This season so far

Every input above is from 2025-26. This season is not in our number. The Red Wings are 6-4-3, 4-3-1 at home, and beat Chicago 4-1 on Thursday 29 October. John Gibson has played nine of their games and Daniil Tarasov four.

The Blues are 6-6-1 and 2-4-0 on the road. They also won 4-1 on Thursday, against Boston. Joel Hofer has played nine of their games and Jordan Binnington four. Thirteen games each is too few to say anything a full season does not, and our method does not use them.

Detroit at home, St. Louis on the road

The Red Wings at home scored 3.1 a game and allowed 3.34, a deficit of 0.24. The Blues on the road scored 2.8 and allowed 3.22, a deficit of 0.42. Both halves of our number come from teams that were outscored. St. Louis was outscored by more.

The halves the method leaves out: Detroit on the road went 20-15-6, a 48.8% win rate, scoring 2.78 and allowing 2.95. St. Louis at home went 20-14-7, also 48.8%, scoring 2.83 and allowing 3.07. The Blues were close to an average team in their own arena. That half is not in our number, and away from St. Louis they were weaker.

The season around it

Neither team made the playoffs. Detroit went 41-31-10 with 92 points and a goal difference of -17. St. Louis went 37-33-12 with 86 points and a goal difference of -27.

The Red Wings went 18-5-10 in one-goal games and won 11 of the 21 that went past regulation. The Blues went 18-9-12 in one-goal games and won 4 of their 16 past 60 minutes. Detroit lost by two goals or more in 26 of 82 games, St. Louis in 24 of 82.

Detroit won both meetings in 2025-26. The first, 6-4 at Little Caesars Arena on Saturday 25 October 2025, is inside both halves of our number. The second, 5-2 in St. Louis on Tuesday 28 October 2025, was a Blues home game and is in neither half. Two games prove nothing on their own.

Pick: Red Wings -102

Bet the Red Wings on the moneyline at -102. The gap is 6.6 points toward Detroit, against a threshold of 5. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.

The line read Red Wings -102 and Blues -118 on 30 October 2026 at 19:03 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Red Wings -118 and Blues -102.

What kills the bet

A shorter Detroit price. At +101 or longer the Red Wings are a bet whatever St. Louis is priced at. Against the Blues at -118, they stay a bet down to -117. The price already moved 16 cents away from Detroit since the open, and the same move again would end the bet.

For the Blues to become the bet, they would have to be +150 or longer whatever Detroit’s price, or +196 or longer against Detroit at -102. They are -118.

The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list has Dylan Larkin on injured reserve with a suspension and Simon Edvinsson on injured reserve in a contract dispute for Detroit. It also lists Mason Appleton and Marco Kasper on injured reserve and Albert Johansson out. For St. Louis, Colton Parayko is day-to-day with an upper-body injury, and Ross Johnston, Torey Krug, Dillon Dube and Tyler Tucker are on injured reserve. No goalie is on either list. None of these absences changes our number. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. Detroit’s games went over 5.5 in 49 of 82, a 59.8% rate. St. Louis’s went over in 39 of 82, 47.6%. Detroit’s home games averaged 6.44 goals and St. Louis’s road games 6.02.

Averaged, the over lands 53.7% of the time. With the margin out the over is priced at 54.3% and the under at 45.7%. The lean is 0.6 points to the under, far short of 5. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, St. Louis is -1.5 at +210 and Detroit +1.5 at -258, which is 30.9% and 69.1% without the margin. The Blues won by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games, and the Red Wings lost by two or more in 26 of 82. Averaged, Blues -1.5 covers 27.4% of the time against 30.9% priced, a gap of 3.5 points toward Red Wings +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Red Wings at -102.

Blues at Red Wings, Saturday 31 October, 1:00 PM ET, Little Caesars Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 30 October 2026, 19:03 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 30 October 2026, 19:03 UTC.