NHL
NHL · Monday 2 November
Flames vs Sharks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Take the Sharks on the moneyline. Calgary’s road record puts San Jose at 62.2% in our number, against 55.1% in the price.
The Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks is priced Sharks -135 and Flames +114 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 55.1% for San Jose and 44.9% for Calgary. The market has the home team as a modest favourite. Our number has them as a clear one, 7.1 points stronger than the price.
How 62.2% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are left out of both rates.
The Sharks went 21-14-6 at SAP Center at San Jose, a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. That is an ordinary home number. The Flames went 11-26-4 on the road, a 73.2% road loss rate, and that is what moves the result. Average 51.2% with 73.2% and the Sharks are 62.2%, the Flames 37.8%.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -135 and +114 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Sharks are 55.1% and the Flames 44.9%. Our 62.2% against the market’s 55.1% is a gap of 7.1 points toward San Jose.
The rule is fixed before the pick: a side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. This gap is 7.1.
This season, outside the number
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. The Sharks are 7-7-1, 3-4-0 at home, and lost 5-1 to Ottawa at home on Saturday 31 October. Yaroslav Askarov has played nine of their games in goal and Alex Nedeljkovic six.
The Flames are 6-8-0 and 1-5-0 on the road. They lost 5-2 in Colorado on Saturday 31 October. Devin Cooley and Dustin Wolf have played seven games each in goal, and Arsenii Sergeev one. Cooley is now on injured reserve. Six road games is too few to say anything, and the 1-5-0 is given here as a record, not as a rate.
San Jose at home, Calgary on the road
The Sharks at home scored 3.07 a game and allowed 3.46, a deficit of 0.39. The Flames on the road scored 2.24 and allowed 3.71, a deficit of 1.47. Both halves are negative. Calgary’s is the larger one by a wide margin, and it is the half the method uses for the visitor.
The halves the method leaves out point the other way. Calgary at home went 23-13-5, a 56.1% win rate, scoring 2.93 and allowing 2.61. San Jose on the road went 18-21-2, 43.9%, scoring 3.05 and allowing 3.66. The Flames were a better team in their own arena than the Sharks were in theirs. That half is not in our number, because this game is in San Jose.
The season around it
Neither team made the playoffs in 2025-26, and both played in the Western Conference. San Jose went 39-35-8 with 86 points and a goal difference of -41, scoring 3.06 a game and allowing 3.56. Calgary went 34-39-9 with 77 points and a goal difference of -47, scoring 2.59 and allowing 3.16.
The Sharks went 22-5-8 in one-goal games and won 12 of the 20 that went past regulation. The Flames went 14-6-9 in one-goal games and won 7 of 16 past 60 minutes. Calgary lost by two goals or more in 33 of 82 games. San Jose did so in 30.
The two teams played four times in 2025-26:
| Date | Arena | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday 13 November 2025 | Flames | Flames 2-0 |
| Tuesday 16 December 2025 | Sharks | Sharks 6-3 |
| Saturday 31 January 2026 | Flames | Flames 3-2 |
| Thursday 26 February 2026 | Sharks | Flames 4-1 |
The two games in San Jose sit inside both halves of our number: the Sharks’ home rate and the Flames’ road rate. The two in Calgary are in neither. Calgary won three of the four, including the 4-1 in San Jose on 26 February. Four games is a sample that proves nothing on its own, and the method gives it no extra weight.
Pick: Sharks -135
Bet the Sharks on the moneyline at -135. The gap is 7.1 points toward San Jose against a threshold of 5.
The line read Sharks -135 and Flames +114 on 1 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices: -135 and +114. The market has not moved since opening.
What kills the bet
A shorter San Jose price. At -133 or longer the Sharks are a bet whatever Calgary is priced at. Against Calgary at +114, they stay a bet down to -167. Shorter than that, pass.
For the Flames to become the bet, they would have to be +256 or longer against the current Sharks price, or +205 or longer whatever San Jose is priced at. They are +114.
The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list has Devin Cooley on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, which leaves Wolf and Sergeev as the goalies who have played for Calgary this season. It also has Connor Zary out with a knee injury, Brennan Othmann day-to-day, and Jonathan Huberdeau and Samuel Honzek on injured reserve. San Jose lists Igor Chernyshov, Alexander Wennberg, Quentin Musty and goalie Kyle Keyser on injured reserve, all with upper-body injuries. None of these absences re-runs our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +105 and under -125. The Sharks’ games went over 6.5 in 42 of 82, a 51.2% rate. The Flames’ games did so in 29 of 82, 35.4%. San Jose’s home games averaged 6.53 goals, Calgary’s road games 5.95.
Averaged, our number has the over at 43.3%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 46.8% and the under at 53.2%, so we lean to the under by 3.5 points. That is under the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, San Jose is -1.5 at +170 and Calgary +1.5 at -205, which is 35.5% and 64.5% without the margin. The Sharks won by two goals or more in 17 of 82 games last season, and the Flames lost by two or more in 33 of 82. Averaged, Sharks -1.5 lands 30.5% of the time against 35.5% priced, a gap of 5.0 points toward Flames +1.5. That points to the other side of our moneyline call. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so we do not bet it, and we do not back both sides of one game. One bet on this game: the Sharks at -135.
Flames at Sharks, Monday 2 November, 9:00 PM ET, SAP Center at San Jose. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 1 November 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 1 November 2026, 17:32 UTC.