NHL
NHL · Tuesday 3 November
Jets vs Canadiens Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on this game. Our number has the Jets 3.3 points better than the price, and our bar for a bet is 5.
The Montreal Canadiens are -192 and the Winnipeg Jets +160 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 63.1% for Montreal and 36.9% for Winnipeg. Our number is 59.8% for the Canadiens and 40.2% for the Jets. The 3.3-point gap leans to Winnipeg, and it is not large enough to stake.
How 59.8% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.
The Canadiens went 24-15-2 at the Bell Centre, a 58.5% home win rate. The Jets went 16-19-6 on the road, a 61.0% road loss rate. Average 58.5% with 61.0% and Montreal is 59.8%, Winnipeg 40.2%.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -192 and +160 the two prices come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Canadiens are 63.1% and the Jets 36.9%. Our threshold is 5 points. This gap is 3.3.
Every input is from 2025-26, and this season is outside the method. The Canadiens are 9-3-2, 4-2-1 at home, and beat Pittsburgh 5-4 at home on Saturday, 31 October. Jacob Fowler has played eight of their games and Jakub Dobes six. The Jets are 4-8-3, 2-4-2 on the road, and lost 7-0 in Carolina on Sunday, 1 November. Stuart Skinner has played ten of their games, Nico Daws six and Clay Stevenson five. None of that moves our number.
Montreal at home, Winnipeg on the road
The Canadiens at home scored 3.34 a game and allowed 3.10, a surplus of 0.24. The Jets on the road scored 2.61 and allowed 3.24, a deficit of 0.63. Winnipeg was a weak road team last season.
The halves the method leaves out: Montreal on the road went 24-9-8, also a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.56 and allowing 3.15, a surplus of 0.41. Winnipeg at home went 19-16-6, a 46.3% win rate, scoring 3.02 and allowing 3.10. The Canadiens won at the same rate in both arenas. Neither of those halves is in our number.
The season around it
Montreal went 48-24-10 for 106 points and outscored opponents by 27. In the playoffs the Canadiens beat Tampa Bay 4-3 and Buffalo 4-3, then lost 4-1 to Carolina. Winnipeg went 35-35-12 for 82 points, was outscored by 29, and missed the playoffs.
Montreal went 23-6-10 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 24 that went past regulation. Winnipeg went 16-12-12 in one-goal games and won 7 of its 19 past 60 minutes. The Canadiens won by two goals or more in 25 of 82 games and lost by two or more in 18. The Jets won by two or more in 19 and lost by two or more in 23.
Montreal won both meetings in 2025-26. The 3-2 shootout win on 3 December 2025 was at the Bell Centre, so it sits in both halves of our number. The 5-1 win on 4 February 2026 was in Winnipeg, and it is in neither half.
Pick: No bet
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 3.3 points toward the Jets against a threshold of 5. The price is right enough that a bet on either side would be a guess.
The line read Canadiens -192 and Jets +160 on 3 November 2026 at 06:52 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -166 and +140. At the open the market had Montreal at 60.0% and Winnipeg at 40.0%. Since opening it has moved toward the Canadiens by 3.1 points. Had the open held, the Jets would have been closer to our number.
What kills the bet
For the Jets to become a bet, they would have to be +184 or longer whatever Montreal is priced at, or +180 or longer against Montreal at -192. They are +160.
For the Canadiens to become the bet, they would have to be -121 or longer whatever Winnipeg is priced at; with Winnipeg at +160, they would need to be +115 or longer. They are -192.
The rest is on the ice, and none of it is in our number. ESPN’s injury list, read 3 November 2026 at 06:52 UTC, has Nick Suzuki out with an upper-body injury and Mike Matheson out with a lower-body injury for Montreal. Sam Montembeault and Ivan Demidov are on injured reserve, and Kirby Dach is day-to-day with an illness. For Winnipeg, Josh Morrissey, Vladislav Namestnikov, Nick Bjugstad and Garrett Brown are on injured reserve, and Dawson Mercer is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Canadiens’ games went over 5.5 in 53 of 82, a 64.6% rate. The Jets’ games went over in 47 of 82, a 57.3% rate. Montreal’s home games averaged 6.44 goals and Winnipeg’s road games 5.85.
Averaged, our number puts the over at 61.0%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 54.3% and the under at 45.7%. That is a 6.7-point lean to the over. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
On the puck line, Montreal is -1.5 at +136 and Winnipeg +1.5 at -162, which is 40.7% and 59.3% without the margin. The Canadiens won by two goals or more in 25 of 82 games, and the Jets lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Averaged, Canadiens -1.5 lands 29.3% of the time against 40.7% priced, an 11.4-point lean toward Jets +1.5. That is the same direction as the moneyline gap. It is still a lean, and the call on this game stays no bet.
Jets at Canadiens, Tuesday 3 November, 7:00 PM ET, Bell Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 3 November 2026, 06:52 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 3 November 2026, 06:52 UTC.