NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyMIN+1.5U 6.5+120TB-1.5O 6.5-142
NHL · Thursday 8 October
Wild at Lightning Final Score: Lightning Win 3-2
Final: Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Minnesota Wild 2, Thursday 8 October at Benchmark International Arena.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “No bet on the Lightning or the Wild. Tampa Bay becomes a bet at +108, Minnesota at +140.”
What decided it
Tampa Bay won the first period by 2. Tampa Bay had 35 shots to Minnesota’s 36, and scored 1 power-play goal to 1.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Minnesota Wild +120, Tampa Bay Lightning -142, with a total of 6.5. Tampa Bay, the favourite, won. The 5 goals went under the total.
What comes next
Minnesota plays next against the New York Islanders on Thursday 29 October. Tampa Bay plays next against the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday 29 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Wild at Lightning Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
No bet on the Lightning or the Wild. Tampa Bay becomes a bet at +108, Minnesota at +140.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are -148 and the Minnesota Wild +124 at DraftKings, which is a 57.2% chance for the Lightning once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Lightning 53.2%. The gap is 4.0 points toward the Wild. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so this is a pass.
The call has not changed since this page first went up on 29 September. No line was posted then, and the call was the Lightning at +106 or better or the Wild at +142 or better. Neither price is on offer, so it is still no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Lightning went 25-14-1 at home, meaning 25 wins, 14 regulation losses and 1 loss after regulation. That is a 62.5% home win rate over 40 games. It leaves out their shootout win over Boston at Raymond James Stadium on 1 February, played at a neutral site. The Wild went 23-14-4 on the road and lost 18 of 41, a 43.9% road loss rate. The average is 53.2% for the Lightning, which leaves 46.8% for the Wild.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -148 and +124 the two prices add to 104.3%. Removed, it leaves the Lightning at 57.2% and the Wild at 42.8%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 40 home games for the Lightning and 41 road games for the Wild. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Lightning at home, the Wild on the road
The Lightning at home scored 3.27 goals a game and allowed 2.75. The Wild on the road scored 3.46 and allowed 3.05. Both sides outscored their opponents in these games, the Lightning by 0.52 a game and the Wild by 0.41.
Minnesota travelled well. The Wild won 23 of 41 on the road, more than half, and that pulls our number toward them. Tampa Bay won 25 of 40 at home.
The Lightning finished 50-26-6 with 106 points and outscored opponents by 59 goals, 0.72 a game. They lost their one playoff series 4-3 to the Montreal Canadiens. The Wild finished 46-24-12 with 104 points and outscored opponents by 32 goals, 0.39 a game. They beat the Dallas Stars 4-2 in the playoffs, then lost 4-1 to the Colorado Avalanche.
The teams met twice in 2025-26 and won one each, both at home. Minnesota won 5-1 on 3 March, and Tampa Bay won 6-3 on 24 March. Two games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 4.0 points against a 5-point threshold.
The line has not moved. It opened at Lightning -148 and Wild +124, and read on 7 October 2026 at 23:11 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, it was the same.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. The Wild become a bet at +140 or longer, whatever the Lightning are priced at. The Lightning need +108 or longer, which would make them the underdog at home.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 8 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Lightning’s games went over 5.5 in 50 of 82, and so did the Wild’s. The Lightning’s home games averaged 6.02 goals, the Wild’s road games 6.51.
Both over rates are 61.0%, so the average is 61.0%. The over at -130 is priced at 54.3% with the margin removed, 6.7 points below our rate. Lean over 5.5 at -130. It stays a lean, because the only method this page stakes money on is the moneyline one.
The puck line has the Lightning -1.5 at +154 and the Wild +1.5 at -185. The Lightning won by two goals or more in 35 of 82 games. The Wild lost by two or more in 19 of 82. Averaged, Tampa Bay -1.5 lands 32.9% of the time against 37.8% priced. The gap is short of 5. Pass on the puck line.
Wild at Lightning, Thursday 8 October, 7:00 PM ET, Benchmark International Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 7 October 2026, 23:11 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 7 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.