NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyTB-1.5U 5.5-162NYI+1.5O 5.5+136
NHL · Saturday 10 October
Lightning at Islanders Final Score: Lightning Win 5-3
Final: Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3, Saturday 10 October at UBS Arena.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Bet the Islanders at +136.” The Islanders moneyline lost: New York lost 5-3.
What decided it
Tampa Bay won the first period by 2. Tampa Bay had 26 shots to New York’s 23, and scored 1 power-play goal to 1.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| New York Islanders | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Tampa Bay Lightning -180, New York Islanders +150, with a total of 5.5. Tampa Bay, the favourite, won. The 8 goals went over the total.
What comes next
Tampa Bay plays next against the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday 29 October. New York plays next at the Minnesota Wild on Thursday 29 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Lightning at Islanders Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Bet the Islanders at +136. Our number has them 6.9 points better than the price.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are -162 and the New York Islanders +136 at DraftKings, which is a 40.7% chance for New York once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Islanders 47.6%. The gap is 6.9 points. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so the Islanders are a bet.
When this page first went up on 29 September, no line had been posted, and the call was the Islanders at +135 or longer or the Lightning at +111 or longer. The Islanders opened at +136, one step past that mark, and are still there. The full number agrees with the first page: same side, same price rule.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are left out of both.
The Islanders went 22-17-2 at home, meaning 22 wins, 17 regulation losses and 2 losses after regulation. That is a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Lightning went 24-12-5 on the road and lost 17 of 41, a 41.5% road loss rate. The average is 47.6% for New York, which leaves 52.4% for Tampa Bay.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -162 and +136 the two prices add to 104.2%. Removed, it leaves the Lightning at 59.3% and the Islanders at 40.7%.
Both numbers make Tampa Bay the favourite. They disagree on how big. Our number is built from last season’s home and road rates only, and the market prices things it does not see. It is a new season, rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures. The evidence is 41 home games for the Islanders and 41 road games for the Lightning.
The Islanders at home, the Lightning on the road
The Islanders at home scored 2.93 goals a game and allowed 2.98. The Lightning on the road scored 3.73 and allowed 2.83. Tampa Bay’s road games came out 0.90 goals a game in its favour, and New York’s home games 0.05 against it. The method does not see goals at all. It counts wins.
The Islanders were close to the same team in both buildings: 22 wins at home and 21 on the road, 53.7% against 51.2%.
Across the full season the Lightning finished 50-26-6 with 106 points and outscored opponents by 59 goals, 0.72 a game. They lost their one playoff series 4-3 to the Montreal Canadiens. The Islanders finished 43-34-5 with 91 points, were outscored by 8 goals, and did not reach the playoffs.
The Islanders’ record ran ahead of their goals. Forty-three of their 82 games were decided by one goal, and they went 27-11-5 in those. The Lightning went 15-10-6 in 31 one-goal games. Our number makes no adjustment for close games. It takes each result as it fell.
The teams met three times in 2025-26, all in December, and the Islanders won all three: 2-1 at home on 2 December, 2-0 in Tampa on 6 December, and 3-2 in a shootout at home on 13 December. Three games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: Islanders +136
Bet the Islanders on the moneyline at +136. The gap is 6.9 points against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Lightning -162 and Islanders +136 and had not moved when it was read. Read on 9 October 2026 at 15:17 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, Tampa Bay was -162 and New York +136.
What changes it
A move toward New York. Against Tampa Bay at -162 the Islanders still clear down to +119. At Lightning -145 and Islanders +120, a normal pair, the gap would be 4.1 points and a pass. At +135 or longer the Islanders are a bet whatever Tampa Bay is priced at. The Lightning would need +111 or longer, which is not where this line is.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 10 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -122 and under +102. The Islanders’ games went over 5.5 in 41 of 82 and the Lightning’s in 50 of 82. New York’s home games averaged 5.91 goals, Tampa Bay’s road games 6.56.
The two over rates, 50.0% and 61.0%, average 55.5%. The over at -122 is priced at 52.6% with the margin removed. The gap is 2.9 points, short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Lightning -1.5 at +160 and the Islanders +1.5 at -192. Tampa Bay won by two goals or more in 35 of 82 games. New York lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Averaged, the Lightning -1.5 lands 35.4% of the time against 36.9% priced. The gap is 1.5 points. Pass on the puck line. The bet is the moneyline at +136.
Lightning at Islanders, Saturday 10 October, 7:30 PM ET, UBS Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 October 2026, 15:17 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 9 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.