NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyTB-1.5U 5.5-162NYR+1.5O 5.5+136
NHL · Tuesday 13 October
Lightning vs Rangers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Lightning at -162. We make Tampa Bay a 62.2% favourite, and the price says 59.3%.
The New York Rangers are +136 and the Tampa Bay Lightning -162 at DraftKings. With the margin taken out, the Lightning are 59.3% and the Rangers 40.7%. Our number is 62.2% for Tampa Bay and 37.8% for New York. The two differ by 2.9 points, toward the Lightning. A side is a bet at 5 points or more, so this is a pass.
How the number is built
We take the Rangers’ 2025-26 win rate at home and the Lightning’s 2025-26 loss rate on the road and average them into a home win chance. Wins in overtime or a shootout are wins. A game at a neutral site is neither a home game nor a road game, which matters for both of these teams.
The Rangers went 14-20-7 at home, 14 wins against 20 regulation losses and 7 losses after regulation. That is a 34.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Lightning went 24-12-5 on the road and lost 17 of 41, a 41.5% road loss rate. The average gives New York 37.8% and Tampa Bay the other 62.2%.
Each team played one neutral-site game, and each won it. The Rangers beat the Panthers 5-1 at loanDepot park on 2 January. The Lightning beat the Bruins 6-5 in a shootout at Raymond James Stadium on 1 February. Both games are in the season records and out of the splits.
A book prices both sides a little high, and the surplus over 100% is its margin. Here +136 and -162 add to 104.2%. Without it the Rangers are 40.7% and the Lightning 59.3%.
The price agrees with last season’s splits to within 2.9 points. Those splits are 41 Rangers home games and 41 Lightning road games. Nothing from 2026-27 is in them, and nothing about the summer.
The Rangers at home, the Lightning on the road
The Rangers lost 27 of 41 at home. They scored 2.59 goals a game there and allowed 3.02, a deficit of 0.43. The Lightning on the road scored 3.73 and allowed 2.83, a surplus of 0.90.
New York was a different team away. The Rangers went 19-19-2 on the road, a 47.5% win rate over 40 games, and scored 3.17 a game against 2.59 at home. On the road they outscored opponents by 0.05 a game. The method reads only their home half, and this game is played in it.
Tampa Bay barely changed. The Lightning went 25-14-1 at home, a 62.5% win rate over 40 games, and won 24 of 41 on the road, which is 58.5%. They finished 50-26-6 with 106 points and outscored opponents by 59 goals. Their one playoff series went seven games and ended in a 4-3 loss to the Canadiens.
The Rangers finished 34-39-9 with 77 points, were outscored by 12 and missed the playoffs. They went 11-12-9 in one-goal games, and the Lightning went 15-10-6. Tampa Bay won by two goals or more in 35 of its 82 games.
The road team won all three meetings in 2025-26. The Rangers won 7-3 and 4-2 in Tampa, on 12 November and 15 April, and the Lightning won 4-1 in New York on 29 November. Three games prove nothing. They count in the splits like any other game and get no weight of their own.
Pick: No bet on the Lightning -162
No bet. The gap is 2.9 points on Tampa Bay’s side and the threshold is 5.
The line opened at Rangers +142 and Lightning -170. On 12 October 2026 at 17:29 UTC it read +136 and -162, DraftKings via ESPN. The move is toward the Rangers. At the opening price the gap was 1.8 points, and it is 2.9 now.
What changes it
A cheaper favourite. The Lightning are a bet at -133, or at any price that pays more, whatever the Rangers cost. They are -162. The Rangers need +205 or longer and are +136.
Nothing here covers either team’s lineup for 13 October. Check both before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -135 and under +114. The Rangers’ games went over 5.5 in 39 of 82 and the Lightning’s in 50 of 82. New York’s home games averaged 5.61 goals, and Tampa Bay’s road games averaged 6.56.
The two teams pull this total in opposite directions: a 47.6% over rate for the Rangers and 61.0% for the Lightning. The average is 54.3%. The over at -135 is priced at 55.1% without the margin, so the gap is 0.8 points, on the under’s side. No bet on the total.
On the puck line the Lightning are -1.5 at +150 and the Rangers +1.5 at -180, which is 38.4% and 61.6% with the margin out. Tampa Bay won by two or more in 35 of 82 and New York lost by two or more in 27 of 82. Averaged, Lightning -1.5 lands 37.8% of the time against 38.4% priced. That is 0.6 points short. Pass on the puck line too, and the game stays no bet at -162.
Lightning at Rangers, Tuesday 13 October, 7:15 PM ET, Madison Square Garden. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 October 2026, 17:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Nothing here states who is available.