Sharks at Stars Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

The Stars won 26 of 41 at home and the Sharks lost 23 of 41 on the road. Our number makes Dallas 59.8%: bet the Stars at -121 or better, San Jose at +185 or better.

Our number is 59.8% for the Dallas Stars and 40.2% for the San Jose Sharks. No line had been posted for this game as of 28 September 2026. A side becomes a bet when the market, with its margin removed, sits at least 5 points below our number for it.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Stars went 26-11-4 at home last season: 26 wins, 11 regulation losses and 4 losses after regulation. That is a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. The Sharks went 18-21-2 on the road, so they lost 23 of 41, a 56.1% road loss rate. The average of the two is 59.8% for the Stars, which leaves 40.2% for the Sharks.

It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The 2026-27 season opened on 29 September, and no game from it is in these figures.

The Stars at home, the Sharks on the road

At home, the Stars scored 3.29 goals a game and allowed 2.73. The Sharks on the road scored 3.05 and allowed 3.66. The road side allowed 0.93 a game more than the home side did, and that is the widest gap in the comparison.

San Jose’s road defence was the weakest part of their season. Across all 82 games they allowed 3.56 a game; away from home it was 3.66.

Dallas was nearly as good away as at home. Their road record was 24-9-8, a 58.5% win rate, against 63.4% at home. The Sharks were 21-14-6 at home and 18-21-2 away.

Across the full season the Stars finished 50-20-12 with 112 points, scoring 3.40 a game and allowing 2.76. Their goal margin over the 82 games was +53. They went 28-6-12 in one-goal games. They lost their one playoff series, 4-2 to the Minnesota Wild.

The Sharks finished 39-35-8 with 86 points and were outscored by 41 goals, 3.06 a game to 3.56. They lost by two goals or more in 30 of their 82 games. They did not reach the playoffs.

The teams met three times in 2025-26. Dallas won 4-1 at home on 5 December and 5-3 in San Jose on 18 December. San Jose won 5-4 in overtime at home on 10 January. Three games prove nothing about a fourth.

The price

There is no line yet, so the page states the prices at which this becomes a bet.

The Stars need the market to rate them at 54.8% or less, with the margin removed. At -121 or better, that holds whatever San Jose is priced at. The Sharks need 35.2% or less, which +185 or better guarantees.

Our number makes Dallas a favourite by 9.8 points over even, so a Stars bet can come at a favourite’s price. A Sharks bet needs a long one.

Pick: Stars at -121 or better, Sharks at +185 or better

Our number is 59.8% for Dallas. With no line posted, the call is the pair of prices above. Between them, pass.

It rests on 82 games from last season: 41 at home for the Stars and 41 on the road for the Sharks.

What changes it

The price. The full page re-reads the line on the day of the game. A Stars price slightly worse than -121 may still qualify once the book’s margin is taken out, and that check is made against the posted pair.

The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these teams played in 2025-26. Nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 5 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Sharks at Stars, Monday 5 October, 8:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026 (2025-26 regular season and playoffs). No line posted as of 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.