NHL
NHL · Thursday 29 October
Canadiens vs Stars Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our Canadiens vs Stars prediction: bet Montreal on the moneyline. Our number makes them a 47.6% winner in Dallas, and the price makes them 40.7%.
The Montreal Canadiens are +136 and the Dallas Stars -162 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 40.7% for Montreal and 59.3% for Dallas. Our number is 47.6% for Montreal and 52.4% for Dallas. The gap is 6.9 points toward the Canadiens, and the threshold for a bet is 5.
How 52.4% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are left out.
The Stars went 26-11-4 at American Airlines Center, a 63.4% home win rate. The Canadiens went 24-9-8 on the road, a 41.5% road loss rate. Average the two and Dallas is 52.4%, Montreal 47.6%. The price has Dallas at 59.3%, so the market rates the Stars 6.9 points higher than our number does.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +136 and -162 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Canadiens are 40.7% and the Stars 59.3%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. The Stars are 7-4-1, 4-3-0 at home, and lost 5-1 at home to New Jersey on Tuesday 27 October. Jake Oettinger has played nine of their games and Casey DeSmith three. The Canadiens are 7-3-2, 4-1-1 on the road, and won 2-0 in St. Louis the same night. Jacob Fowler has played seven of their games and Jakub Dobes five.
Dallas at home, Montreal on the road
Over the full season the Stars at home scored 3.29 a game and allowed 2.73, a surplus of 0.56. The Canadiens on the road scored 3.56 and allowed 3.15, a surplus of 0.41. Montreal’s road record, 24-9-8, is the half of our number that does the work.
The halves the method leaves out: Dallas on the road also went 24-9-8, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.51 and allowing 2.78, a surplus of 0.73. Montreal at home went 24-15-2, 58.5%, scoring 3.34 and allowing 3.10. The Stars had a larger goal surplus away from home than in their own arena, and that half is not in our number.
Over the full season Dallas was the stronger side. The Stars went 50-20-12 with 112 points in the Western Conference and outscored opponents by 53, then lost 4-2 to Minnesota in the first round. The Canadiens went 48-24-10 with 106 points in the Eastern Conference and outscored opponents by 27. They beat Tampa Bay 4-3 and Buffalo 4-3 before losing 4-1 to Carolina.
Both teams lived in close games. Dallas went 28-6-12 in one-goal games and won 12 of the 24 that went past regulation. Montreal went 23-6-10 in one-goal games and won 14 of its 24 past 60 minutes. The Stars won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games; the Canadiens lost by two or more in 18 of 82.
The two met twice in 2025-26. Dallas won 7-0 in Montreal on Thursday 13 November 2025. That game is in neither half of our number. Montreal won 4-3 in overtime in Dallas on Sunday 4 January 2026, and that one is in both halves: a home loss for the Stars and a road win for the Canadiens. Two games is not a sample, and they split.
Pick: Canadiens +136
Bet the Canadiens on the moneyline at +136. The gap is 6.9 points toward Montreal, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Canadiens +136 and Stars -162 on 28 October 2026 at 19:03 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at +130 and -155. Since the open the market gives Dallas 1.0 point more: 58.3% then, 59.3% now. The longer Montreal price is the market moving away from the Canadiens, and it has widened our gap.
What kills the bet
A shorter Montreal price. At +135 or longer the Canadiens are a bet whatever Dallas is priced at. The price is +136, so the margin here is thin. Against Dallas at -162, Montreal stays a bet down to +118.
For the Stars to become the bet, they would have to be +111 or longer, whatever Montreal is priced at. They are -162.
The rest is on the ice, and none of it is in our number. ESPN’s injury list, read 28 October 2026 at 19:02 UTC, has Nick Suzuki out with an upper-body injury for Montreal, and Sam Montembeault, Ivan Demidov, Bryce Pickford and Lucas Condotta on injured reserve. Dallas lists Kyle Capobianco and Radek Faksa as out, Sam Steel as day-to-day, and Esa Lindell and Oskar Back on injured reserve. Montembeault is the only goalie on either list, and he has not played this season: Fowler and Dobes have taken all 12 of Montreal’s games. Check the lineups before you bet.
Canadiens vs Stars odds on the total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -142 and under +120. The Stars’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82, the Canadiens’ in 53 of 82. Dallas home games averaged 6.02 goals, Montreal road games 6.71.
That is 53.7% and 64.6%, an average of 59.1% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 56.3% and the under at 43.7%. Our number leans to the over by 2.8 points, under the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Dallas is -1.5 at +154 and Montreal +1.5 at -185, which is 37.8% and 62.2% without the margin. Over the full season the Stars won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games, and the Canadiens lost by two or more in 18 of 82. Averaged, Stars -1.5 lands 24.4% of the time against 37.8% priced, a gap of 13.4 points toward Canadiens +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Canadiens at +136.
Canadiens at Stars, Thursday 29 October, 8:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 October 2026, 19:03 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 28 October 2026, 19:02 UTC.