NHL
NHL · Wednesday 28 October
Flames vs Oilers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Flames at +180. Our number has Calgary winning 36.6% of the time and the price says 34.3%: a gap of 2.3 points, short of the 5 we bet on.
The Calgary Flames are +180 and the Edmonton Oilers -218 at DraftKings for Wednesday’s game at Rogers Place. With the margin out, that is 34.3% for Calgary and 65.7% for Edmonton. Our prediction has the Oilers at 63.4%, close enough to the price that it holds.
How 63.4% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Oilers went 22-14-5 at Rogers Place, a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Flames went 11-26-4 on the road, a 73.2% road loss rate. Averaged, Edmonton is 63.4% and Calgary 36.6%.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -218 and +180 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Oilers are 65.7% and the Flames 34.3%. Our number is 2.3 points kinder to Calgary than the price. The threshold is 5.
This season is not in the figures. Edmonton is 8-2-2, 3-2-2 at home, and lost 4-3 in a shootout to Detroit on Monday 26 October. Devon Levi has played seven of their games and Tristan Jarry five. Calgary is 5-6-0, 1-3-0 on the road, and beat Toronto 5-2 on Monday. Devin Cooley has played six of their games and Dustin Wolf five.
Edmonton at home, Calgary on the road
The Oilers at home in 2025-26 scored 3.49 a game and allowed 3.41, a surplus of 0.08. That is a thin edge for a 53.7% home win rate. The Flames on the road scored 2.24 and allowed 3.71, a deficit of 1.47 a game, and that half carries most of Edmonton’s number.
The halves the method leaves out point the other way. Calgary at home went 23-13-5, a 56.1% win rate, scoring 2.93 and allowing 2.61. Edmonton on the road went 19-16-6, 46.3%, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.15. The Flames were better at home than the Oilers were, and none of that is in our number.
The season around it
The Oilers went 41-30-11 with 93 points and outscored opponents by 13. They lost a playoff series 2-4 to the Anaheim Ducks. The Flames went 34-39-9 with 77 points, were outscored by 47, and missed the playoffs.
Edmonton went 13-11-11 in one-goal games and won 9 of the 20 that went past regulation. Calgary went 14-6-9 in one-goal games and won 7 of 16 past 60 minutes. The Oilers won by two goals or more 28 times in 82 games; the Flames lost by two or more 33 times.
Calgary won three of the four meetings in 2025-26. In Edmonton, the Flames won 4-3 in a shootout on 8 October 2025 and the Oilers won 5-1 on 23 December. Both are inside both halves of our number. The two games in Calgary, Flames wins of 3-2 on 27 December and 4-3 on 4 February 2026, are in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 2.3 points toward Calgary against a threshold of 5. At 2.3 points, the price and our number say the same thing within the size of error we accept.
The line read Oilers -218 and Flames +180 on 27 October 2026 at 19:03 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved.
What kills the bet
A longer Calgary price makes the Flames the bet. At +216 or longer, Calgary is a bet whatever Edmonton is priced at. It is +180 now.
For the Oilers to become the bet, their price would have to drift a long way. At -140 or longer they are a bet whatever Calgary is priced at; against Calgary at +180, they become a bet at -100 or longer. They are -218.
ESPN’s injury list has Levi on injured reserve with an undisclosed injury, Mattias Ekholm out with an upper-body injury, Zach Hyman day-to-day with an upper-body injury, and Jason Dickinson and Alec Regula on injured reserve for Edmonton. Calgary lists Jonathan Huberdeau (hip) and Samuel Honzek (lower body) on injured reserve. None of these changes our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -112 and under -108. The Oilers’ games went over 6.5 in 48 of 82, a 58.5% rate. The Flames’ games went over in 29 of 82, 35.4%. Edmonton’s home games averaged 6.9 goals and Calgary’s road games 5.95.
Averaged, our number puts the over at 47.0%. With the margin removed the market has the over at 50.4% and the under at 49.6%, so we lean to the under by 3.5 points. That is below 5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Edmonton is -1.5 at +110 and Calgary +1.5 at -130: 45.7% and 54.3% without the margin. Averaging the Oilers’ 28 wins by two or more with the Flames’ 33 losses by two or more, Oilers -1.5 lands 37.2% of the time, a gap of 8.5 points toward Flames +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean toward Calgary, the same side as the moneyline gap, and not a bet. On this game the call is no bet.
Flames at Oilers, Wednesday 28 October, 8:30 PM ET, Rogers Place. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 27 October 2026, 19:03 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 27 October 2026, 19:03 UTC.