NHL
NHL · Thursday 29 October
Blackhawks vs Red Wings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Blackhawks at +150. Our number makes Chicago a 42.7% winner in Detroit against the price’s 38.4%, and that 4.3-point gap is short of the 5 points a bet needs.
The Chicago Blackhawks are +150 and the Detroit Red Wings -180 at DraftKings for Thursday’s game at Little Caesars Arena. With the margin out, that is 38.4% for Chicago and 61.6% for Detroit. Our number also has the Red Wings as favourites, at 57.3%. The two figures differ by less than our rule allows, so the price is close enough to right.
How 57.3% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are left out of both rates.
The Red Wings went 21-16-4 at home last season, a 51.2% home win rate. The Blackhawks went 15-20-6 on the road, a 63.4% road loss rate. Average the two and Detroit is 57.3%, Chicago 42.7%. That is 4.3 points better for Chicago than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -180 and +150 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, Detroit is 61.6% and Chicago 38.4%.
The rule is set before the pick: a side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. Chicago’s gap is 4.3. It points the right way and is not big enough.
Every input is from 2025-26, and this season is not in the figures. The Red Wings are 5-4-3, 3-3-1 at home, and won 4-3 in a shootout at Edmonton on Monday 26 October. John Gibson has played eight of their games, Daniil Tarasov four and Michal Postava two. The Blackhawks are 4-8-0 and 0-4-0 on the road, though they beat the Los Angeles Kings 2-1 at home on Tuesday 27 October. Spencer Knight has played 10 of their games and Arvid Soderblom two. Four road games is a sample that proves nothing, and it is outside the method.
Detroit at home, Chicago on the road
At home in 2025-26 the Red Wings scored 3.1 goals a game and allowed 3.34, a deficit of 0.24. That is a team that won 51.2% of its home games while being outscored in them. On the road the Blackhawks scored 2.59 and allowed 3.41, a deficit of 0.82 a game.
The halves the method leaves out: Detroit on the road went 20-15-6, a 48.8% win rate, scoring 2.78 and allowing 2.95. Chicago at home went 14-19-8, a 34.1% win rate, scoring 2.61 and allowing 3.29. In our view the half left out of Chicago’s number looks like the half in it. The Blackhawks were weak in both arenas.
The 2025-26 season around it
Detroit went 41-31-10 with 92 points, was outscored by 17 and missed the playoffs. Chicago went 29-39-14 with 72 points, was outscored by 62 and also missed the playoffs. On goal difference the Blackhawks were the clearly worse side.
The Red Wings went 18-5-10 in one-goal games and won 11 of the 21 that went past regulation. The Blackhawks went 13-8-14 in one-goal games and won 7 of their 21 past 60 minutes. Detroit won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games and lost by two or more in 26. Chicago won by two or more in 16 and lost by two or more in 31.
The two teams split their 2025-26 games. Chicago won 5-1 in Detroit on Sunday 9 November 2025, and that game is inside both halves of our number. Detroit won 4-0 in Chicago on Saturday 13 December 2025, and that game is in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 4.3 points toward the Blackhawks against a threshold of 5. Our number and the market agree that Detroit is the favourite. They disagree on how big a favourite by 4.3 points, and below 5 points the method reads that as noise.
The line read Blackhawks +150 and Red Wings -180 on 28 October 2026 at 19:02 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, +150 and -180.
What kills the bet
A longer Chicago price makes the Blackhawks a bet. At +165 or longer they are a bet whatever Detroit is priced at. Against the Red Wings at -180, they become a bet at +157 or longer. They are +150.
For the Red Wings to become the bet, they would have to be -109 or longer whatever Chicago is priced at, or +128 or longer against the Blackhawks at +150. They are -180, so that side is far from a bet.
ESPN’s injury list has Albert Johansson out for Detroit, Daniil Tarasov day-to-day, and Simon Edvinsson, Mason Appleton and Marco Kasper on injured reserve. Tarasov is the one goalie on either list. Chicago lists Bowen Byram as day-to-day with an upper-body injury. None of these changes our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +114 and under -135. The Red Wings’ games went over 6.5 in 37 of 82, a 45.1% rate. The Blackhawks’ games went over in 33 of 82, a 40.2% rate. Detroit’s home games averaged 6.44 goals, Chicago’s road games 6.0.
The average of those two rates is 42.7% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 44.9% and the under at 55.1%, so our number leans to the under by 2.2 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Detroit is -1.5 at +142 and Chicago +1.5 at -170, which is 39.6% and 60.4% without the margin. The Red Wings won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games and the Blackhawks lost by two or more in 31 of 82. Averaged, Red Wings -1.5 lands 32.9% of the time against 39.6% priced, a gap of 6.7 points toward Blackhawks +1.5 at -170. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, on the side the moneyline gap already points to. The moneyline gap is 4.3 points, and the call on this game is no bet.
Blackhawks at Red Wings, Thursday 29 October, 7:30 PM ET, Little Caesars Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 October 2026, 19:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 28 October 2026, 19:02 UTC.