NHL
NHL · Thursday 29 October
Bruins vs Blues Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Blues. Our number has St. Louis 3.3 points better than the price, and a bet needs 5.
The Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues on Thursday is priced Blues -115 and Bruins -105 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 51.1% for St. Louis and 48.9% for Boston. Our number is 54.4% for the Blues. The 3.3-point gap points to the home side, but it is too small to stake.
How 54.4% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both rates, so “at home” here means games in the team’s own building.
The Blues went 20-14-7 at Enterprise Center, a 48.8% home win rate. The Bruins went 16-16-8 on the road, a 60.0% road loss rate. Averaged, that is 54.4% for St. Louis and 45.6% for Boston.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -115 and -105 the pair comes to 104.7%. Taken out, the Blues are 51.1% and the Bruins 48.9%. Ours minus the market’s is 3.3 points toward St. Louis, against a threshold of 5.
None of this season is in the number. The Blues are 5-6-1, 3-2-1 at home, and lost 2-0 to Montreal at home on Tuesday, 27 October. Joel Hofer has played eight of their games and Jordan Binnington four. The Bruins are 9-3-1, 4-2-1 on the road, and lost 2-1 at Carolina on the same night. Jeremy Swayman has played ten of their games and Michael DiPietro three. Boston’s start is the better one, and it sits outside the method.
St. Louis at home, Boston on the road
The two halves the method uses were both losing halves. The Blues at home scored 2.83 a game and allowed 3.07, a deficit of 0.24. The Bruins on the road scored 3.05 and allowed 3.48, a deficit of 0.43.
The halves left out are far apart. Boston at home went 29-11-1, a 70.7% win rate, scoring 3.54 and allowing 2.56, a surplus of 0.98. St. Louis on the road went 17-19-5, a 41.5% rate, scoring 2.80 and allowing 3.22. The Bruins were a different team in their own arena, and that half is not in our number.
The season around it
Over the full 2025-26 season Boston was the stronger club. The Bruins went 45-27-10 with 100 points and outscored opponents by 22, then lost a playoff series 2-4 to the Buffalo Sabres. The Blues went 37-33-12 with 86 points, were outscored by 27, and missed the playoffs.
Games past regulation split the two sharply. Boston played 22 of them and won 12. St. Louis played 16 and won 4. In one-goal games the Bruins went 20-8-10 and the Blues 18-9-12. Boston won by two goals or more in 25 of 82 games; St. Louis lost by two or more in 24 of 82.
Boston won both 2025-26 meetings 5-2. The first, on Thursday 4 December 2025, was in Boston and is in neither half of our number. The second, on Tuesday 9 December 2025, was in St. Louis, so it is inside both halves: a Blues home loss and a Bruins road win.
Pick: No bet
The gap is 3.3 points toward the Blues, against a threshold of 5. Below 5 points the method gives no bet, and this game is below it.
The line read Blues -115 and Bruins -105 on 28 October 2026 at 19:03 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Blues -125 and Bruins +105, which had St. Louis at 53.2% with the margin out. Since opening the market has moved toward Boston, giving the Bruins 2.2 points more than at the open. That move brought the price closer to our number, and it is still not far enough to bet.
What kills the bet
A longer Blues price makes the bet. At +103 or longer, St. Louis is a bet whatever Boston is priced at. Against the Bruins at -105, the Blues become a bet at -100 or longer. They are -115.
For the Bruins to become the bet against the Blues at -115, they would have to be +173 or longer. They are -105.
ESPN’s game page lists Ross Johnston (lower body), Torey Krug (ankle), Dillon Dube (neck), Tyler Tucker (knee) and Logan Mailloux (hand) on injured reserve for the Blues. No goalie is on it, and the Bruins list is empty. None of these absences changes the method. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Blues’ games went over 5.5 in 39 of 82, a 47.6% rate, and the Bruins’ in 47 of 82, a 57.3% rate. St. Louis home games averaged 5.9 goals, Boston road games 6.53.
Our number makes the over 52.4%. With the margin out, the market has the over at 54.3% and the under at 45.7%. That is a 1.8-point lean to the under. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, the Blues are -1.5 at +210 and the Bruins +1.5 at -258, which is 30.9% and 69.1% with the margin out. St. Louis won by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games, and Boston lost by two or more in 19 of 82. Our number has Blues -1.5 landing 23.2% of the time, a 7.7-point gap toward Bruins +1.5 at -258. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this gap is not a bet, and it points away from the moneyline gap. No bet on this game.
Bruins at Blues, Thursday 29 October, 8:00 PM ET, Enterprise Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 October 2026, 19:03 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 28 October 2026, 19:02 UTC.