NHL
NHL · Tuesday 20 October
Bruins vs Stars Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Stars at -170. We make Dallas a 61.7% winner and the market makes it 60.4%: the same favourite at almost the same size, a 1.3-point gap against the 5 a bet needs.
The Dallas Stars are -170 and the Boston Bruins +142 at DraftKings. With the margin taken out, that is 60.4% for Dallas and 39.6% for Boston. Our number gives Boston 38.3%.
How 61.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s 2025-26 loss rate on the road. Wins in overtime or a shootout count as wins. Games at a neutral site are in neither half: Boston’s 6-5 shootout loss to Tampa Bay at Raymond James Stadium on 1 February was one, so the Bruins’ road half is 40 games, not 41.
The Stars went 26-11-4 at American Airlines Center, a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. The Bruins went 16-16-8 on the road and lost 24 of 40, a 60.0% road loss rate. Average the two and Dallas is 61.7%, Boston 38.3%.
The margin is what a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. Here -170 and +142 come to 104.3%. Without it, the Stars are 60.4% and the Bruins 39.6%.
Every figure in our number is from 2025-26. This season is not in it, and Boston has started fast: 7-2-0, with five straight wins, the last three on a road trip through San Jose, Anaheim and Los Angeles, the latest 4-1 in Los Angeles on Saturday. Jeremy Swayman has played seven of the nine games. Dallas is 4-3-1, 1-2-0 at home, and won 4-0 in Chicago on Saturday; Jake Oettinger has played six of its eight games.
Dallas at home, Boston on the road
The Stars at home scored 3.29 a game and allowed 2.73, a surplus of 0.56. The Bruins on the road scored 3.05 and allowed 3.48, a deficit of 0.43.
The other halves, which the method does not read, run the opposite way for Boston. The Bruins at home went 29-11-1, a 70.7% win rate, scoring 3.54 and allowing 2.56. Dallas on the road went 24-9-8, 58.5%, scoring 3.51 and allowing 2.78.
Over the full season Dallas finished 12 points clear. The Stars went 50-20-12 with 112 points and outscored opponents by 53, then lost 4-2 to Minnesota in the playoffs. The Bruins went 45-27-10 with 100 points, outscored opponents by 22, and lost 4-2 to Buffalo.
Dallas went 28-6-12 in one-goal games and won 12 of the 24 that went past regulation. Boston went 20-8-10 in one-goal games and won 12 of its 22 past 60 minutes.
They split the two meetings in 2025-26. The 6-2 Dallas win at home on 20 January is in our number, one of the Stars’ 41 home games and one of the Bruins’ 40 road games. Boston’s 6-3 win at home on 31 March is in neither half.
Pick: No bet on the Stars -170
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 1.3 points toward Dallas, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Stars -170 and Bruins +142 on 19 October 2026 at 22:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, where it opened.
What changes it
A cheaper Dallas price. Against Boston at +142, the Stars would need to be -118 or longer to clear the bar.
For Boston to become the bet, the Bruins would need to be +218 or longer against Dallas at -170.
The lineups are the other unknown. ESPN’s injury list, read on 19 October 2026 at 22:15 UTC, has Pavel Zacha day-to-day for Boston, listed on Monday with an upper-body injury. Dallas has Oskar Back, Matt Duchene, Luke Krys and Cameron Hughes on injured reserve. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -118 and under -102. The Stars’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82, the Bruins’ in 47 of 82. Dallas’s home games averaged 6.02 goals and Boston’s road games 6.53.
That is 53.7% and 57.3%, an average of 55.5% for the over. With the margin out the over is priced at 51.7% and the under at 48.3%. Our number sits less than 4 points toward the over. Pass on the total.
The puck line is where the figures and the price part. Dallas is -1.5 at +150 and Boston +1.5 at -180, which is 38.4% and 61.6% once the margin is removed. The Stars won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games, and the Bruins lost by two or more in 19 of 82. Averaged, Stars -1.5 lands 25.0% of the time against 38.4% priced, a gap of 13.4 points toward Bruins +1.5 at -180. Our method bets the moneyline only, so on the puck line this is a lean. The call on the game stays no bet.
Bruins at Stars, Tuesday 20 October, 8:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 19 October 2026, 22:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; 2026-27 games and goalie appearances from ESPN’s team schedules and game page, read 19 October 2026. Injury list: ESPN, read 19 October 2026, 22:15 UTC.