NHL
NHL · Tuesday 13 October
Avalanche vs Stars Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Avalanche at -108. Our number leans to Colorado by 4.1 points, and a bet needs 5.
The Dallas Stars are -112 and the Colorado Avalanche -108 at DraftKings, a pick’em with the home team a shade in front. Take the margin out and the Stars are 50.4%, the Avalanche 49.6%. Our number puts the Avalanche at 53.7% and the Stars at 46.3%. That names the visitor as the likelier winner, by a gap of 4.1 points, which is 0.9 short of the 5 points a bet requires.
Where 46.3% comes from
The method in one clause: take how often the home team won at home in 2025-26 and how often the visitor lost on the road, and average them, with an overtime or shootout win counted as a win. Neither team played a neutral-site game last season, so nothing is left out.
Dallas went 26-11-4 at home: 26 wins, 11 regulation losses, 4 losses after regulation. That is a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. Colorado went 29-7-5 on the road. The Avalanche lost 12 of 41 away from home, a 29.3% road loss rate. Average 63.4% and 29.3% and the Stars come out at 46.3%.
The second figure is the one that moves the number. A visitor that loses 29.3% of its road games drags a 63.4% home team under even.
The margin is what a book adds to both prices so that they sum to more than 100%. At -112 and -108 the two prices sum to 104.8%. Without it the market says 50.4% Stars.
A 4.1-point gap is the method disagreeing with the market, though by less than the bar. It is also 41 games a side from a season that is over. The 2026-27 season has contributed nothing to it, and neither roster’s summer is measured here.
Two teams that won 26 of 41 at home
At home last season the Stars scored 3.29 goals a game and allowed 2.73, which is 0.56 a game better than their visitors. The Avalanche on the road scored 3.54 and allowed 2.32, a difference of 1.22 a game.
Colorado’s home record was 26-9-6, the same 26 wins in 41 that Dallas had at home, 63.4% each. The road is where they separate. The Stars went 24-9-8 away, a 58.5% win rate. The Avalanche won 29 of 41, which is 70.7%, and were a better team in the win column on the road than in their own building.
Over the full 82 the Avalanche finished 55-16-11 with 121 points and outscored opponents by 99 goals. Among the 32 teams in ESPN’s standings that was the most points, the most goals scored (302) and the fewest allowed (203). The Stars finished 50-20-12 with 112 points and were 53 goals to the good, with the second-fewest goals allowed, 226.
The margins show how differently the two won. Colorado won 41 of its 82 games by two goals or more. Dallas did that 22 times and played 46 one-goal games, going 28-6-12 in them. The Avalanche played 29 and went 14-4-11.
The four meetings in 2025-26 went to Dallas three times, and the first three all ended in a shootout: Stars 5-4 at Ball Arena on 11 October, Avalanche 5-4 at American Airlines Center on 6 March, Stars 2-1 at Ball Arena on 18 March. Dallas won the fourth 2-0 at home on 4 April. Four games is a list of scores and proves nothing about a rate. The method does not use them.
In the playoffs the Stars lost to the Minnesota Wild, 4 games to 2. The Avalanche beat the Los Angeles Kings 4-0 and the Wild 4-1, then lost 4-0 to the Vegas Golden Knights. Playoff games are not in the home and road rates.
Pick: No bet on the Avalanche -108
No moneyline bet. Colorado’s side of the gap is 4.1 points and the threshold is 5.
The line opened at Stars -112 and Avalanche -108 and was the same when read. Read on 12 October 2026 at 16:03 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN: Dallas -112, Colorado -108.
What would make it a bet
A short move on the Avalanche. Colorado is a bet at +106 or longer whatever Dallas is priced at, and the price now is -108. From -108 to +106 is 14 cents. The Stars would need +142 or longer, and they are -112.
Who plays on 13 October is not stated anywhere on this page. A move of 14 cents is small enough that lineup news could produce it, so check the lineups and the price together before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. Stars games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82 and Avalanche games in 43 of 82. Dallas’s home games averaged 6.02 goals and Colorado’s road games 5.86.
Those over rates are 53.7% and 52.4%, and their average is 53.0%. The over at -130 is priced at 54.3% with the margin removed. That leaves 1.3 points, toward the under, and no bet.
The puck line is where the figures disagree with the price most. The Stars are -1.5 at +205 and the Avalanche +1.5 at -250, which is 31.5% and 68.5% once the margin is out. Dallas won by two or more in 22 of 82 games, 26.8%. Colorado lost by two or more in 12 of 82, 14.6%. Averaged, Stars -1.5 lands 20.7% of the time, so Avalanche +1.5 lands 79.3% against 68.5% priced. That is a gap of 10.8 points. The moneyline is the only market the method bets, so this is a lean and no more: Avalanche +1.5, at -250. On the game itself the answer is still no bet at -108.
Avalanche at Stars, Tuesday 13 October, 8:30 PM ET, American Airlines Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 October 2026, 16:03 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Nothing here states who is available.