NHL
NHL · Wednesday 14 October
Stars vs Avalanche Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Stars at +120. The price gives Dallas 43.7%, our number gives it 47.6%, and that 3.9-point gap is short of the 5 a bet takes.
The Colorado Avalanche are -142 and the Dallas Stars +120 at DraftKings. Once the margin is out, the market reads 56.3% Avalanche and 43.7% Stars. Our number has Colorado at 52.4% and Dallas at 47.6%. Colorado is the favourite on both counts. The difference is 3.9 points on the Dallas side, 1.1 short of the bar.
How 52.4% is reached
Our home win chance averages two rates from 2025-26: how often the home team won at home, and how often the visitor lost on the road. A win after regulation, in overtime or a shootout, is a win. Games at a neutral site would be left out, and neither team played one.
The Avalanche went 26-9-6 at home: 26 wins, 9 regulation losses, 6 losses after regulation. That is a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. The Stars went 24-9-8 on the road, so they lost 17 of 41, a 41.5% road loss rate. Halfway between 63.4% and 41.5% is 52.4%.
The visitor’s half is why this lands near even. Dallas won 24 of 41 away from home. Against a road team that loses 17 in 41, a home team that wins 26 in 41 is a narrow favourite and no more.
The margin is the amount by which a book’s two prices add to more than 100%. At -142 and +120 they add to 104.1%. Take it out and Colorado is 56.3%, Dallas 43.7%.
What the method cannot see is most of what made Colorado the best team in the league by points. It reads the Avalanche’s home games only, and their road record, which was better, is not in this number at all. So the 3.9 points may be the method’s blind spot as much as the market’s error. The figures are 41 games a side from a finished season. These same two teams play in Dallas on Tuesday 13 October, the night before, and that game is not in them. Neither is any other game of 2026-27.
Colorado’s home half against Dallas’s road half
The Avalanche at home scored 3.83 goals a game and allowed 2.63, which is 1.20 a game better than their visitors. The Stars on the road scored 3.51 and allowed 2.78, a surplus of 0.73.
Colorado was better away than at home in the win column: 29-7-5 on the road, a 70.7% win rate, against 63.4% at Ball Arena. By goals the two halves were almost the same, plus 1.22 a game on the road and plus 1.20 at home. The home record carries 6 losses after regulation in 41 games, and each of those is a loss in our number.
Dallas ran the other way, though not by much. The Stars went 26-11-4 at home, the same 26 wins in 41 as the Avalanche, and 24-9-8 on the road, a 58.5% road win rate.
The Avalanche finished 55-16-11 with 121 points and outscored opponents by 99 goals over 82 games. The Stars finished 50-20-12 with 112 points and were plus 53. In the playoffs Colorado swept Los Angeles 4-0, beat Minnesota 4-1 and was swept 4-0 by Vegas. Dallas went out 4-2 to Minnesota. None of those games is in our number.
The margins chart shows how differently the two teams won. Colorado won by two goals or more in 41 of its 82 games, exactly half the schedule. Dallas did it 22 times. The Stars lived in close games instead: 28-6-12 when the margin was one goal, and 12 wins in 24 games that went past 60 minutes. The Avalanche went 14-4-11 in one-goal games and won 7 of 18 past 60 minutes.
The four meetings of 2025-26 followed that pattern and ignored home ice. The road team won all four, and three went to a shootout. Dallas won 5-4 at Ball Arena on 11 October and 2-1 there on 18 March, both in shootouts. Colorado won 5-4 in a shootout at American Airlines Center on 6 March and 2-0 there on 4 April. Four games are four games, and they sit inside the 41 on each side like the rest.
Pick: No bet on the Stars +120
Pass on the moneyline. The lean is to Dallas at +120, with 47.6% ours against 43.7% priced, and 3.9 points is under the 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Avalanche -142 and Stars +120 and had not moved when it was read on 13 October 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
Where the call turns
At +135. The Stars are a bet at +135 or longer whatever the Avalanche are priced at, and they are +120 now, so the call is 15 cents from changing. Between those prices it stays a pass.
Colorado would have to become an underdog. The Avalanche are a bet at +111 or longer and they are -142.
One more thing moves before the puck drops. Both teams play each other the night before, and this page states nothing about who dresses for either side on 14 October. Check both lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Avalanche’s games went over 5.5 in 43 of 82, the Stars’ in 44 of 82. Colorado’s home games averaged 6.46 goals and Dallas’s road games 6.29.
That is 52.4% and 53.7%, an average of 53.0%. The over at -130 is priced at 54.3% with the margin removed. The gap is 1.3 points toward the under. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Avalanche -1.5 at +170 and the Stars +1.5 at -205, or 35.5% and 64.5% once the margin is out. Colorado won by two or more in 41 of 82 games. Dallas lost by two or more in 14 of 82. The average of the two is 33.5% for Avalanche -1.5, against 35.5% priced, a gap of 2.0 points toward Stars +1.5. Pass there too. Three markets, three passes, and the nearest to a bet is the Stars at +120.
Stars at Avalanche, Wednesday 14 October, 8:30 PM ET, Ball Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 13 October 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Nothing here states who is available.