Jets vs Stars Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on the Jets at +170. Connor Hellebuyck is out, and on the road games Winnipeg played without him our number gives the Jets 37.5% against the price’s 35.5%: a 2-point gap, short of the 5 a bet needs.

The Dallas Stars are -205 and the Winnipeg Jets +170 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 64.5% for Dallas and 35.5% for Winnipeg. Our number has the Stars as a clear favourite too, by a little less.

How 62.5% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neither team played a game at a neutral site.

Hellebuyck is on injured reserve with a suspension (ESPN injury list, read 22 October 2026, 14:10 UTC; listed since 2 October, 25 October given as his return). When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Hellebuyck appeared in 57 of Winnipeg’s 82 games last season. In the 13 road games he did not play, the Jets went 5-7-1: 7 regulation losses and 1 after regulation, so 8 losses in 13, a 61.5% road loss rate, scoring 36 goals and allowing 47. In the 28 he played, they went 11-12-5.

The Stars went 26-11-4 at American Airlines Center, a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. Average 63.4% with 61.5% and the Stars are 62.5%, the Jets 37.5%. That is 2.0 points better for Winnipeg than the price.

The full road season gives almost the same answer. The Jets went 16-19-6 away from home, 25 losses in 41, a 61.0% road loss rate; on that number Dallas is 62.2% and the gap is 2.3 points. Neither number is near the bar.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -205 and +170 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Stars are 64.5% and the Jets 35.5%.

Every input is from 2025-26: Dallas’s 41 home games and Winnipeg’s 13 road games without Hellebuyck. This season is not in the figures. The Stars are 5-3-1, 2-2-0 at home, and beat Boston 3-2 in overtime at home on Tuesday. Jake Oettinger has played seven of their games and Casey DeSmith two. The Jets are 4-3-2, 2-1-1 on the road, and lost 2-1 in St. Louis on Tuesday. Stuart Skinner has played six of their games and Clay Stevenson three.

Dallas at home, Winnipeg on the road

Over the full season the Stars at home scored 3.29 a game and allowed 2.73, a surplus of 0.56. The Jets on the road scored 2.61 and allowed 3.24, a deficit of 0.63. In the 13 road games without Hellebuyck they allowed 47 goals, more than 3.6 a game.

The halves the method leaves out: Dallas on the road went 24-9-8, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.51 and allowing 2.78. Winnipeg at home went 19-16-6, 46.3%, scoring 3.02 and allowing 3.10. The Stars were nearly as good away as at home.

Over the full season these two finished 30 points apart. Dallas went 50-20-12 with 112 points and outscored opponents by 53, then lost 4-2 to Minnesota in the first round. Winnipeg went 35-35-12 with 82 points, was outscored by 29, and missed the playoffs.

Dallas also won the close ones. The Stars went 28-6-12 in one-goal games and won 12 of the 24 that went past regulation. The Jets went 16-12-12 in one-goal games and won 7 of their 19 past 60 minutes. Dallas won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games.

The Stars won all four meetings in 2025-26. The two in Dallas, 4-3 in overtime on 2 February and 3-0 on 2 April, had Hellebuyck in goal, so they are in the full-season road half but not in the re-run. The two in Winnipeg, 5-4 on 9 October and 4-3 on 9 December, are in neither half.

Pick: No bet on the Jets +170

Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 2.0 points toward Winnipeg on the games without Hellebuyck, and 2.3 on the full road season, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Stars -205 and Jets +170 on 22 October 2026 at 14:08 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -225 and +185.

What changes it

A longer Winnipeg price. Against Dallas at -205, the Jets would need to be +209 or longer to clear the bar.

For Dallas to become the bet, the market would have to drop the Stars to 57.5% or less, from 64.5% now.

The lineups are the rest of it. Besides Hellebuyck, ESPN’s injury list has Josh Morrissey on injured reserve since Monday with a wrist injury, Vladislav Namestnikov out and Garrett Brown on injured reserve for Winnipeg. Dallas lists Esa Lindell as out with a lower-body injury, and Oskar Back, Matt Duchene, Luke Krys and Cameron Hughes on injured reserve. No other goalie is on either list. Check the starters before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 5.5, over -122 and under +102. The Stars’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82, the Jets’ in 47 of 82. Dallas’s home games averaged 6.02 goals, Winnipeg’s road games 5.85.

That is 53.7% and 57.3%, an average of 55.5% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 52.6% and the under at 47.4%, so our number leans to the over by 2.9 points. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Dallas is -1.5 at +130 and Winnipeg +1.5 at -155, which is 41.7% and 58.3% without the margin. Over the full season the Stars won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games, and the Jets lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Averaged, Stars -1.5 lands 27.4% of the time against 41.7% priced, a gap of 14.3 points toward Jets +1.5 at -155. That is a lean, not a bet: our method stakes the moneyline only, and these margins include the games Hellebuyck played. No bet on this game.

Jets at Stars, Thursday 22 October, 8:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 14:08 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Winnipeg’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores, read 17 October 2026. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 22 October 2026, 14:10 UTC.