NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyDAL+1.5U 6.5-115BUF-1.5O 6.5-105
NHL · Thursday 8 October
Stars at Sabres Final Score: Stars Win 4-0
Final: Dallas Stars 4, Buffalo Sabres 0, Thursday 8 October at KeyBank Center.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “No bet on the Sabres or the Stars. Buffalo becomes a bet at +111, Dallas at +135.”
What decided it
Dallas won the second period by 3. Dallas had 18 shots to Buffalo’s 26, and scored 1 power-play goal to 0.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Dallas Stars -122, Buffalo Sabres +102, with a total of 6.5. Dallas, the favourite, won. The 4 goals went under the total.
What comes next
Dallas plays next against the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday 29 October. Buffalo plays next at the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday 29 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Stars at Sabres Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
No bet on the Sabres or the Stars. Buffalo becomes a bet at +111, Dallas at +135.
The Buffalo Sabres are -105 and the Dallas Stars -115 at DraftKings, which is a 48.9% chance for the Sabres once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Sabres 52.4%. The gap is 3.5 points toward the Sabres. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so this is a pass.
The call has not changed since this page first went up on 29 September. No line was posted then, and the call was the Sabres at +111 or better or the Stars at +135 or better. Neither price is on offer, so it is still no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Sabres went 26-10-5 at home, meaning 26 wins, 10 regulation losses and 5 losses after regulation. That is a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. The Stars went 24-9-8 on the road and lost 17 of 41, a 41.5% road loss rate. The average is 52.4% for the Sabres, which leaves 47.6% for the Stars.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -105 and -115 the two prices add to 104.7%. Removed, it leaves the Sabres at 48.9% and the Stars at 51.1%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Sabres and 41 road games for the Stars. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Sabres at home, the Stars on the road
The Sabres at home scored 3.63 goals a game and allowed 2.90. The Stars on the road scored 3.51 and allowed 2.78. Both sides outscored their opponents by the same 0.73 a game.
These are two strong halves. Buffalo won 26 of 41 at home. Dallas won 24 of 41 on the road, and 8 of its 17 road losses came after regulation. That is why our number sits only 2.4 points off even.
The Sabres finished 50-23-9 with 109 points and outscored opponents by 47 goals. They beat the Boston Bruins 4-2 in the playoffs, then lost 4-3 to the Montreal Canadiens. The Stars finished 50-20-12 with 112 points and outscored opponents by 53 goals. They lost their one playoff series 4-2 to the Minnesota Wild.
The teams met twice in 2025-26 and won one each, both on the road. Buffalo won 4-1 at Dallas on 31 December, and Dallas won 4-3 in a shootout at Buffalo on 15 April. Two games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 3.5 points against a 5-point threshold.
The Sabres opened at -115 and the Stars at -105, which put Buffalo at 51.1%, a gap of 1.3 points. The favourite has since switched sides, and the gap has grown toward the Sabres without reaching 5. Read on 7 October 2026 at 23:11 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, the Sabres were -105 and the Stars -115.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. The Sabres become a bet at +111 or longer, whatever the Stars are priced at. The Stars need +135 or longer.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 8 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. The Sabres’ games went over 6.5 in 38 of 82 and the Stars’ in 40 of 82. The Sabres’ home games averaged 6.53 goals, the Stars’ road games 6.29.
The two over rates, 46.3% and 48.8%, average 47.6%. The over at +110 is priced at 45.7% with the margin removed, less than 2 points below our rate. That is short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Sabres -1.5 at +215 and the Stars +1.5 at -265. The Sabres won by two goals or more in 35 of 82 games. The Stars lost by two or more in 14 of 82. Averaged, Buffalo -1.5 lands 29.9% of the time against 30.4% priced. Pass on the puck line.
Stars at Sabres, Thursday 8 October, 7:00 PM ET, KeyBank Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 7 October 2026, 23:11 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 7 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.