NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyDAL-1.5U 6.5-155PIT+1.5O 6.5+130
NHL · Saturday 10 October
Stars at Penguins Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Penguins at +136. Dallas is the favourite on both numbers, and ours gives Pittsburgh a little more, not enough.
The Dallas Stars are -162 and the Pittsburgh Penguins +136 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 59.3% chance for Dallas and 40.7% for Pittsburgh. Our number gives the Penguins 44.5%. The gap is 3.8 points toward Pittsburgh, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 points or more. Pass.
When this page first went up on 29 September, no line had been posted. Our number then was 45.1% for Pittsburgh, and the call was the Stars at +101 or longer or the Penguins at +150 or longer. The number has since moved to 44.5%, for the reason below. Either way, +136 is short of the Penguins’ price and the Stars are the favourite, not the underdog. The full number agrees with that page: no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are left out of both.
The Penguins went 19-13-8 at home, meaning 19 wins, 13 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 47.5% home win rate over 40 games. The Stars went 24-9-8 on the road and lost 17 of 41, a 41.5% road loss rate. The average is 44.5% for Pittsburgh, which leaves 55.5% for Dallas.
The Penguins’ 40 home games leave out one. On 16 November 2025 they beat the Nashville Predators 4-0 in Stockholm, a game ESPN lists at a neutral site with Pittsburgh as the home side. Counted as a home game, it would put the Penguins at 20-13-8, our number at 45.1%, the figure the first version of this page used, and the gap at 4.4. That is a pass all the same.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -162 and +136 the two prices add to 104.2%. Removed, it leaves the Stars at 59.3% and the Penguins at 40.7%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 40 home games for the Penguins and 41 road games for the Stars. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Penguins at home, the Stars on the road
The Penguins at home scored 3.65 goals a game and allowed 3.58. The Stars on the road scored 3.51 and allowed 2.78. Pittsburgh was ahead by 0.07 a game in these games, Dallas by 0.73.
The Penguins lost a lot of games late. They had 16 losses after regulation across the season, and 23 of their 82 games went past 60 minutes. In one-goal games they went 12-7-16. The method counts each of those 16 as a loss.
The Stars were the opposite in close games. They went 28-6-12 in 46 one-goal games, and won 24 on the road against 26 at home.
Across the full season the Stars finished 50-20-12 with 112 points and outscored opponents by 53 goals. They lost their one playoff series, 4-2 to the Minnesota Wild. The Penguins finished 41-25-16 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 25 goals. They also lost their one series 4-2, to the Philadelphia Flyers.
The teams met twice and the Stars won both: 3-2 in a shootout in Dallas on 7 December, and 6-3 in Pittsburgh on 28 March. Two games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: No bet on the Penguins +136
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 3.8 points toward Pittsburgh, against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Stars -162 and Penguins +136 and had not moved when it was read. Read on 9 October 2026 at 14:57 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, Dallas was -162 and Pittsburgh +136.
What changes it
Drift toward Dallas. With the Stars left at -162, the Penguins become a bet at +148 or longer. At +154 or longer they are a bet whatever the Stars are priced at, as long as the pair carries a margin. The Stars would need -102 or longer on the same terms, close to even money, which is not where this line is.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 10 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -115 and under -105. The Penguins’ games went over 6.5 in 47 of 82 and the Stars’ in 40 of 82. Pittsburgh’s home games averaged 7.23 goals, Dallas’s road games 6.29.
The two over rates, 57.3% and 48.8%, average 53.0%. The over at -115 is priced at 51.1% with the margin removed. The gap is about 2 points, short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Stars -1.5 at +154 and the Penguins +1.5 at -185. Dallas won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games. Pittsburgh lost by two or more in 18 of 82. Averaged, Stars -1.5 lands 24.4% of the time against 37.8% priced, so the Penguins +1.5 land 75.6% against 62.2%. That is a gap of 13.4 points. It is built from last season’s results only, and the market prices things it does not see, so read it as a lean, no more: the Penguins +1.5, at -185. Our method bets the moneyline only, and on the moneyline this game is a pass.
Stars at Penguins, Saturday 10 October, 7:00 PM ET, PPG Paints Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 October 2026, 14:57 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 9 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.