NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyDAL-1.5U 5.5-192CHI+1.5O 5.5+160
NHL · Saturday 17 October
Stars vs Blackhawks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Blackhawks at +160. Dallas is the right favourite, and the price has it almost exactly where our number does.
The Dallas Stars are -192 and the Chicago Blackhawks +160 at DraftKings. Strip out the margin and the market makes Dallas 63.1% and Chicago 36.9%. Our number has the Blackhawks at 37.8% and the Stars at 62.2%. The two agree to within 0.9 points, and the bar for a bet is 5.
Where 37.8% comes from
Our home win chance averages two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own building and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. An overtime or shootout win counts as a win. Games at a neutral site sit in neither half; neither team played one.
Chicago went 14-19-8 at the United Center: 14 wins, 19 regulation losses, 8 losses after regulation. That is a 34.1% home win rate over 41 games. Dallas went 24-9-8 on the road, so it lost 17 of 41, a 41.5% road loss rate. Average the two and Chicago comes out at 37.8%, Dallas at 62.2%.
Both halves point the same way. Chicago rarely won at home, Dallas usually won away, and the price already says so.
The margin is the cushion a book adds to both prices, so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -192 and +160 the two add to 104.2%. Removed, the Stars are 63.1% and the Blackhawks 36.9%.
A number this close to the price says the market and last season’s records agree, nothing more. It rests on 41 Chicago home games and 41 Dallas road games, none of them from this season. Dallas is 3-3-1 and won 3-2 in a shootout in Colorado on Wednesday. Chicago is 3-5-0 and beat Winnipeg 4-3 in overtime at home on Thursday. Neither result is in the figures.
Chicago at home, Dallas on the road
The goals make the gap plainer than the records. At home the Blackhawks scored 2.61 a game and allowed 3.29, outscored by 0.68. The Stars on the road scored 3.51 and allowed 2.78, a surplus of 0.73.
The other halves tell the same story. Chicago went 15-20-6 on the road, a 36.6% win rate, scoring 2.59 and allowing 3.41. Dallas was 26-11-4 at home, 63.4%, scoring 3.29 and allowing 2.73. The method reads only the Blackhawks’ home half and the Stars’ road half.
Over the full season the distance between them was wide. The Stars finished 50-20-12 with 112 points, outscored opponents by 53, and lost their only playoff series, 4-2 to Minnesota. The Blackhawks finished 29-39-14 with 72 points, were outscored by 62, and did not reach the playoffs.
Dallas won its close games. The Stars went 28-6-12 in one-goal games and won 12 of the 24 that went past 60 minutes; 22 of their 50 wins came by two goals or more. Chicago went 13-8-14 in one-goal games, won 7 of 21 past regulation, and won 16 of its 29 by two or more.
The meetings went the other way. Chicago won two of the three in 2025-26, every one decided by a goal. The Blackhawks won 4-3 at the United Center on 1 January, and that game is the only meeting in our number: one of Chicago’s 41 home games and one of Dallas’s 41 road games. Chicago’s 4-3 shootout win in Dallas on 27 December and Dallas’s 4-3 overtime win at home on 8 March fall in neither half.
Pick: No bet on the Blackhawks +160
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 0.9 points toward Chicago, and the threshold is 5.
The line opened at Stars -192 and Blackhawks +160 and had not moved when it was read on 16 October 2026 at 15:38 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
What makes it a bet
A big move either way. Against the Stars at -192, the Blackhawks would have to drift to +211 to clear the bar. At +205 or longer Chicago is a bet whatever Dallas is priced at.
Dallas needs the price to come in sharply: -133 or longer before the Stars become the bet, and they are -192.
Price is one unknown; the lineups are the other. This page states nothing about who plays for either team on 17 October. Check both before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -120 and under +100. The Blackhawks’ games went over 5.5 in 42 of 82, the Stars’ in 44 of 82. Chicago’s home games averaged 5.90 goals, Dallas’s road games 6.29.
That is 51.2% and 53.7%, an average of 52.4%. The over at -120 is priced at 52.2% once the margin is out, a gap of 0.3 points. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Stars -1.5 at +130 and the Blackhawks +1.5 at -155, which is 41.7% and 58.3% without the margin. Dallas won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games. Chicago lost by two or more in 31 of 82. Averaged, Stars -1.5 lands 32.3% of the time against 41.7% priced, a gap of 9.4 points toward Blackhawks +1.5. Dallas won 28 one-goal games, and a one-goal win does not cover -1.5. Our method bets the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet: Blackhawks +1.5 at -155. The call on the game stays no bet.
Stars at Blackhawks, Saturday 17 October, 7:00 PM ET, United Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 16 October 2026, 15:38 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; 2026-27 games from ESPN’s team schedules, read 16 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.