Blues vs Rangers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Blues at +105. With Igor Shesterkin out, our number runs on the Rangers‘ home games without him, and it makes St. Louis a 57.4% winner against the price’s 46.8%.

The St. Louis Blues are +105 and the New York Rangers -125 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 46.8% for St. Louis and 53.2% for New York. The price has the home side as a modest favourite. Our number has the visitors ahead by a wide distance.

How 57.4% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.

Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a knee injury (ESPN injury list, read 2 November 2026, 17:45 UTC; listed since 11 October, with 15 September 2027 given as his return date). When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Shesterkin appeared in 51 of New York’s 82 games last season, ahead of Jonathan Quick’s 25, Spencer Martin’s 6 and Dylan Garand’s 3. He played 26 of the 41 home games the method reads. In the 15 home games he did not play, the Rangers went 4-9-2, a 26.67% home win rate. Our minimum for a re-run is 10 games at that venue, so 15 is enough to use.

The Blues went 17-19-5 on the road, a 58.5% road loss rate. Average 26.67% with 58.5% and the Rangers are 42.6%, the Blues 57.4%. That is 10.6 points better for St. Louis than the price.

The full home season gives the same side. The Rangers went 14-20-7 at Madison Square Garden, a 34.1% home win rate over 41 games; on that number New York is 46.3%, a gap of 6.9 points toward the Blues. Taking Shesterkin out widens it.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -125 and +105 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Rangers are 53.2% and the Blues 46.8%.

Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. The Rangers are 7-7-1, but 6-2-0 at home, and lost 4-1 to Edmonton on Sunday. Garand has played 11 of their games, Shesterkin 5 and James Reimer 1. The Blues are 7-6-1, 3-4-0 on the road, and won 5-4 in Detroit on Saturday. Joel Hofer has played 10 of their games and Jordan Binnington 4. The Rangers’ home start is the strongest evidence against this pick, and it sits outside the method.

New York at home, St. Louis on the road

Over the full season the Rangers at home scored 2.59 a game and allowed 3.02, a deficit of 0.43. The Blues on the road scored 2.80 and allowed 3.22, a deficit of 0.42. Both halves the method reads were losing halves. They lost by the same amount per game.

The halves the method leaves out: New York on the road went 19-19-2, a 47.5% win rate, scoring 3.17 and allowing 3.12. St. Louis at home went 20-14-7, 48.8%, scoring 2.83 and allowing 3.07. The Rangers were a better team away from their own arena than in it, and that half is not in our number.

Neither team made the playoffs. St. Louis went 37-33-12 with 86 points and was outscored by 27. New York went 34-39-9 with 77 points and was outscored by 12.

The Blues collected points in close games. They went 18-9-12 in one-goal games, though they won only 4 of the 16 that went past regulation. The Rangers went 11-12-9 in one-goal games and won 9 of their 18 past 60 minutes. New York lost by two goals or more in 27 of 82 games, St. Louis in 24 of 82.

The Rangers won both meetings in 2025-26. The 3-2 win on 24 November was at Madison Square Garden and counts in New York’s full-season home half. The 2-1 overtime win on 18 December was in St. Louis, so it is in neither half of our number.

Pick: Blues +105

Bet the Blues on the moneyline at +105. The gap is 10.6 points toward St. Louis on the Rangers’ home games without Shesterkin, against a threshold of 5. On the full home season the gap is 6.9.

The line read Blues +105 and Rangers -125 on 2 November 2026 at 17:46 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices and has not moved.

What kills the bet

A shorter St. Louis price. At -110 or longer the Blues are a bet whatever New York is priced at. Against the Rangers at -125, they stay a bet down to -158.

For the Rangers to become the bet, they would need to be +166 or longer whatever the Blues price, or +240 or longer against the Blues at +105. They are -125.

The rest is on the ice. Besides Shesterkin, ESPN’s injury list has Joonas Korpisalo, also a goalie, on injured reserve with a foot injury, along with Joe Veleno and Aidan Thompson, and Sean Durzi day-to-day. St. Louis lists Colton Parayko as day-to-day with an upper-body injury, and Ross Johnston, Torey Krug, Dillon Dube and Tyler Tucker on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over +114 and under -135. The Rangers’ games went over 6.5 in 32 of 82, the Blues’ in 33 of 82. New York’s home games averaged 5.61 goals, St. Louis’s road games 6.02.

That is 39.0% and 40.2%, an average of 39.6% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 44.9% and the under at 55.1%, so our number leans to the under by 5.2 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. The under is a lean, not a bet.

On the puck line, New York is -1.5 at +190 and St. Louis +1.5 at -230, which is 33.1% and 66.9% without the margin. Over the full season the Rangers won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games, and the Blues lost by two or more in 24 of 82. Averaged, Rangers -1.5 lands 28.7% of the time against 33.1% priced, a gap of 4.4 points toward Blues +1.5. That is below the threshold and on the same side as the pick. One bet on this game: the Blues at +105.

Blues at Rangers, Tuesday 3 November, 7:00 PM ET, Madison Square Garden. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2 November 2026, 17:46 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; New York’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 2 November 2026, 17:45 UTC.