NHL
NHL · Tuesday 3 November
Mammoth vs Maple Leafs Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on this game. The price has the Maple Leafs at 45.7% and our number has them at 46.3%, a gap of 0.6 points against a threshold of 5.
The Utah Mammoth are -130 and the Toronto Maple Leafs +110 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 54.3% for Utah and 45.7% for Toronto. Our figures are 53.7% and 46.3%. The market and the method agree to within a point, so the page has no edge to argue.
How 46.3% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both.
The Maple Leafs went 18-15-8 at Scotiabank Arena, a 43.9% home win rate. The Mammoth went 21-17-3 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate. Averaged, Toronto is 46.3% and Utah 53.7%. That is 0.6 points better for Toronto than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +110 and -130 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Maple Leafs are 45.7% and the Mammoth 54.3%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is not in the figures. The Maple Leafs are 8-6-2, 4-3-1 at home, and won 4-2 at Vancouver on Saturday 31 October. Sergei Bobrovsky has played 10 of their games and Anthony Stolarz 6. The Mammoth are 9-6-0, 5-4-0 on the road, and lost 6-3 at Philadelphia on Sunday 1 November. Karel Vejmelka has played 12 of their games and Sebastian Cossa 5.
Toronto at home, Utah on the road
At home last season the Maple Leafs scored 3.29 a game and allowed 3.54, a deficit of 0.25. On the road the Mammoth scored 3.20 and allowed 2.83, a surplus of 0.37. Those are the two halves inside our number.
The halves the method leaves out: Toronto on the road went 14-21-6, a 34.1% win rate, scoring 2.88 and allowing 3.76. Utah at home went 22-16-3, a 53.7% win rate, scoring 3.34 and allowing 3.02. Neither half moves our number.
The season around it
Utah finished 43-33-6 with 92 points and a goal difference of +28, then lost a playoff series 2-4 to the Vegas Golden Knights. Toronto finished 32-36-14 with 78 points, was outscored by 46, and missed the playoffs. The Eastern Conference Maple Leafs and the Western Conference Mammoth met twice.
Toronto went 14-4-14 in one-goal games and won 9 of the 23 that went past regulation. Utah went 16-11-6 in one-goal games and won 10 of its 16 past 60 minutes. The Maple Leafs lost by two goals or more in 32 of 82 games; the Mammoth won by two or more in 27 of 82.
The Maple Leafs won 5-3 in Toronto on Wednesday 5 November 2025. That game is in both halves of our number. The Mammoth won 6-1 in Utah on Tuesday 13 January 2026, which is in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 0.6 points toward Toronto against a threshold of 5, so the method gives no side.
The line read Mammoth -130 and Maple Leafs +110 on 2 November 2026 at 17:46 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -125 and +105. Since the open the market has moved toward Utah: it gives the Mammoth 1.0 points more than the 53.2% it gave them at -125.
What kills the bet
A longer price on either side. The Maple Leafs become a bet at +142 or longer whatever Utah is priced at; against the Mammoth at the current -130, the figure is +151 or longer. They are +110.
For the Mammoth to become the bet, they would have to be +106 or longer whatever Toronto is priced at, or +121 or longer against the Maple Leafs at the current +110. They are -130.
ESPN’s injury list on the game page (read 2 November 2026) has John Tavares, Kirill Marchenko, Miles Wood, Nick Blankenburg and Marshall Rifai on injured reserve for Toronto. Utah lists John Marino and Maveric Lamoureux on injured reserve and Kailer Yamamoto as day-to-day with an upper-body injury. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -120 and under +100. The Maple Leafs’ games went over 6.5 in 46 of 82, the Mammoth’s in 38 of 82. Toronto’s home games averaged 6.83 goals, Utah’s road games 6.03.
That is 56.1% and 46.3%, an average of 51.2% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 52.2% and the under at 47.8%, so our number leans to the under by 1.0 point. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Utah is -1.5 at +170 and Toronto +1.5 at -205, which is 35.5% and 64.5% without the margin. Utah won by two or more in 27 of 82 games and Toronto lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, Mammoth -1.5 lands 36.0% of the time against 35.5% priced, a gap of 0.4 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean and nothing more. No bet on this game.
Mammoth at Maple Leafs, Tuesday 3 November, 7:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2 November 2026, 17:46 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 2 November 2026.