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The Panthers lost 24 of 41 on the road last season. Take the Sharks at +114.
The Florida Panthers are -135 and the San Jose Sharks +114 at DraftKings, which prices the Sharks to win 44.9% of the time. Our number is 54.9%. The gap is 10.0 points, twice the 5 points a side needs to be a bet.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.
The Sharks went 21-14-6 at home, which is 21 wins, 14 regulation losses and 6 losses after regulation. That is a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Panthers went 17-23-1 on the road, so they lost 24 of their 41 road games, a 58.5% road loss rate. The average of 51.2 and 58.5 is 54.9.
The market’s figure is the moneyline with the margin removed. The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add up to more than 100%. Take it out of -135 and +114 and the Sharks’ share is 44.9%.
This is the first week of a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. Last season’s 82 games are the only evidence in hand, and the method uses 41 of them for each team. The Panthers play at Carolina on 29 September, and that game is not in these figures.
The Sharks at home, the Panthers on the road
At home, the Sharks scored 3.07 goals a game and allowed 3.46. The Panthers on the road scored 2.88 and allowed 3.73. Both teams gave up more than they scored in these games, and the Panthers gave up more.
Across the full season the Sharks finished 39-35-8 with 86 points and were outscored by 0.50 goals a game. The Panthers finished 40-38-4 with 84 points and were outscored by 0.31 a game. Neither team reached the playoffs.
The Panthers’ road record, 17-23-1, means 23 of their 24 road losses came in regulation. The standings gave them a point for one.
The teams met twice in 2025-26, and the Sharks won both: 3-1 at home on 9 November and 4-1 at Florida on 19 January. Two games prove nothing about a third.
The price
The Panthers opened at -142 and the Sharks at +120. Read on 24 September 2026 at 04:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, they were -135 and +114. At the opening prices the gap was 11.2 points. The move toward the Sharks has cut it to 10.0.
Both halves of our number sit above the market’s 44.9%: the 51.2% home win rate and the 58.5% road loss rate.
Pick: Sharks moneyline
San Jose Sharks +114. Our number is 54.9%, the market’s is 44.9%, and the 10.0-point gap clears the 5-point threshold.
It rests on 82 games, 41 at home for the Sharks and 41 on the road for the Panthers, all from last season.
What changes it
The price, and there is room in it. With the book’s margin at today’s size, the Sharks could move past even money to -108 and still leave a gap of 5.1 points. At -109 the gap is 4.8, and the call becomes a pass.
The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these two teams played in 2025-26, and nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 1 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, with the over at +105 and the under at -125. The Sharks’ games went over 6.5 in 42 of 82, and so did the Panthers’, 51.2% each. The Sharks’ home games averaged 6.53 goals, the Panthers’ road games 6.61.
With the margin removed, the over at +105 is priced at 46.8%. Our 51.2% is 4.4 points above it, short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Panthers -1.5 at +180 and the Sharks +1.5 at -218. The Panthers won by two goals or more in 19 of their 82 games, and the Sharks lost by two or more in 30 of 82. Averaged, that is 29.9% against 34.3% priced for Panthers -1.5, a 4.4-point gap toward the Sharks. Pass on the puck line.
Panthers at Sharks, Thursday 1 October, 10:00 PM ET, SAP Center at San Jose. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
