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Our number leans to the Predators, 4.7 points short of a bet. No bet.
The Minnesota Wild are -148 at DraftKings and the Nashville Predators +124. With the margin removed, that gives the Predators a 42.8% chance. Our number gives them 47.5%. The gap is 4.7 points, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 or more.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Predators went 21-17-3 at home, meaning 21 wins, 17 regulation losses and 3 losses after regulation. That is a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Wild went 23-14-4 on the road and lost 18 of 41, a 43.9% road loss rate. The average is 47.5% for the Predators, 52.5% for the Wild.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -148 and +124, it leaves the Wild at 57.2% and the Predators at 42.8%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Predators and 41 road games for the Wild.
The Predators at home, the Wild on the road
The Wild on the road scored 3.46 goals a game and allowed 3.05. The Predators at home scored 3.10 and allowed 3.22. On goals, the visitor was the better side.
The Wild finished 46-24-12 with 104 points and outscored opponents by 0.39 goals a game. They beat the Dallas Stars 4-2 in the playoffs and lost 4-1 to the Colorado Avalanche. They won 23 at home and 23 on the road. The Predators finished 38-34-10 with 86 points, outscored by 0.27 a game, and did not reach the playoffs.
Twenty-seven of the Wild’s games went past regulation, and they lost 12 of them. Four of those 12 came on the road, and each one counts as a loss in the 43.9% above, though the standings gave the Wild a point for it.
The teams met four times in 2025-26 and split them, with three of the four going to overtime. The Wild won 3-2 in overtime at home on 5 November and 6-5 in overtime at Nashville on 5 February. The Predators won 3-2 in overtime at Minnesota on 24 December and 2-1 at home on 11 April. Four games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 4.7 points against a 5-point threshold.
The Wild opened at -148 and the Predators at +124, and neither had moved when read on 24 September 2026 at 04:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. The Predators become a bet at +136 or longer, whatever the Wild are priced at. The Wild become a bet at +111 or longer, a long way from -148.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 1 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. The Predators’ games went over 6.5 in 35 of 82, and the Wild’s in 42 of 82. The Predators’ home games averaged 6.32 goals, the Wild’s road games 6.51.
Together that is 77 overs in 164 games, 47.0%. The over at +110 is priced at 45.7% with the margin removed, a gap of 1.3 points. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Wild -1.5 at +170 and the Predators +1.5 at -205. The Wild won by two goals or more in 26 of 82 games, and the Predators lost by two or more in 26 of 82. Averaged, Wild -1.5 lands 31.7% of the time against 35.5% priced. Pass on the puck line.
Wild at Predators, Thursday 1 October, 8:00 PM ET, Bridgestone Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
