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Our number and the price agree to within 4.3 points. No bet.
The Colorado Avalanche are -180 against the Los Angeles Kings at +150 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 61.6% chance for the Avalanche. Our number is 57.3%. The gap is 4.3 points, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 or more.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Avalanche went 26-9-6 at home last season, meaning 26 wins, 9 regulation losses and 6 losses after regulation. That is a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. The Kings went 20-10-11 on the road and lost 21 of 41, a 51.2% road loss rate. The average of 63.4 and 51.2 is 57.3.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -180 and +150, it leaves the Avalanche at 61.6% and the Kings at 38.4%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The only evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Avalanche and 41 road games for the Kings.
The Avalanche at home, the Kings on the road
The Avalanche finished 55-16-11 with 121 points and outscored opponents by 1.20 goals a game. At home they scored 3.83 a game and allowed 2.63.
Their road record, 29-7-5, was better than their home one. The method uses only the home half, and 63.4% is the lower of the two.
The Kings went 35-27-20 with 90 points and were outscored by 0.27 goals a game. Twenty of their losses came after regulation, and 33 of their games went to extra time. On the road they scored 2.85 a game and allowed 2.90.
The Avalanche won all seven games between the two last season: 4-1 at Los Angeles on 8 October, 5-2 at home on 30 December and 4-2 at Los Angeles on 3 March, then a 4-0 first-round playoff series. They beat the Minnesota Wild 4-1 next and lost 4-0 to the Vegas Golden Knights. The method leaves the playoffs out.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 4.3 points against a 5-point threshold.
The Avalanche opened at -185 and the Kings at +154. Read on 24 September 2026 at 01:10 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, they were -180 and +150. At the opening prices the gap was 4.9, also a pass.
What changes it
A longer price on the Kings. At +166 or longer, the Kings are a bet whatever the Avalanche are priced at. The other way, the Avalanche become a bet at -109 or better, a long way from -180.
The lineups are unknown here. This page states nothing about who plays on 30 September. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -118 and under -102. The Avalanche’s games went over 5.5 in 43 of 82 and the Kings’ in 39 of 82. The Avalanche’s home games averaged 6.46 goals, the Kings’ road games 5.75.
The two over rates, 52.4% and 47.6%, average 50.0%. The over is priced at 51.7% with the margin removed, 1.7 points the other way. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Avalanche -1.5 at +142 and the Kings +1.5 at -170. The Avalanche won by two goals or more in 41 of 82 games, half of them. The Kings lost by two or more in only 21 of 82. Averaged, Avalanche -1.5 comes in 37.8% of the time against 39.6% priced. Pass on the puck line.
Kings at Avalanche, Wednesday 30 September, 10:00 PM ET, Ball Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 01:10 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
