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The Mammoth won 22 of 41 at home last season and are priced at -198. Take the Blackhawks at +164.
The Utah Mammoth are -198 against the Chicago Blackhawks at +164 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that prices the Blackhawks to win 36.3% of the time. Our number is 41.5%. The gap is 5.2 points, and the threshold for a bet is 5. This one clears it by 0.2.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Mammoth went 22-16-3 at home, meaning 22 wins, 16 regulation losses and 3 losses after regulation. That is a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Blackhawks went 15-20-6 on the road and lost 26 of 41, a 63.4% road loss rate. The average is 58.5% for the Mammoth, which leaves 41.5% for the Blackhawks.
The margin is the few points a book adds to both prices, so that the two sides add up to more than 100%. Removed from -198 and +164, it leaves the Mammoth at 63.7% and the Blackhawks at 36.3%.
A new season starts here. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed in either one. The only evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Mammoth and 41 road games for the Blackhawks. The Blackhawks play at Vegas on 29 September, and that game is not in these figures.
The Mammoth at home, the Blackhawks on the road
The Mammoth at home scored 3.34 goals a game and allowed 3.02. The Blackhawks on the road scored 2.59 and allowed 3.41. That is 0.75 goals a game more scored by the home side and 0.39 fewer allowed.
Over the full season the Mammoth finished 43-33-6 with 92 points and outscored opponents by 0.34 goals a game. They lost their playoff series 4-2 to the Vegas Golden Knights. The Blackhawks finished 29-39-14 with 72 points, outscored by 0.75 a game, and did not reach the playoffs.
The Blackhawks won all four meetings in 2025-26: 3-1 at home on 14 October, 4-0 at Utah on 1 March, 3-2 in overtime at home on 10 March and 3-2 in overtime at Utah on 13 March. Four games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
The price
The Mammoth opened at -198 and the Blackhawks at +164, and neither had moved when read on 24 September 2026 at 04:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
The two halves of our number do not carry equal weight here. The Blackhawks’ 36.6% road win rate is only 0.3 points above the market’s 36.3%. The gap comes from the other half: the Mammoth lost 46.3% of their home games, 19 of 41.
Pick: Blackhawks moneyline
Chicago Blackhawks +164. Our number gives the Blackhawks 41.5%, the market 36.3%, a gap of 5.2 points against a 5-point threshold.
The sample is 82 games, 41 for each team, all from last season. It is a thin edge, 0.2 points over the line.
What changes it
Almost any move toward the Blackhawks. With the book’s margin held at today’s size, the Blackhawks at +163 still leave a 5.1-point gap and the bet stands. At +162 the gap is 4.9, and it is a pass. If the price you can get is shorter than +163, do not take it.
The other unknown is who plays. This page states nothing about either lineup on 1 October, and a summer of changes could move either team’s true rate a long way from last season’s. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -115 and under -105. The Mammoth’s games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82 and the Blackhawks’ in 42 of 82. The Mammoth’s home games averaged 6.36 goals, and the Blackhawks’ road games 6.00.
Together that is 86 overs in 164 games, 52.4%. The over at -115 is priced at 51.1% with the margin removed. That is 1.3 points. Pass on the total.
The Mammoth are -1.5 at +124 on the puck line and the Blackhawks +1.5 at -148. The Mammoth won by two goals or more in 27 of 82 games. The Blackhawks lost by two or more in 31 of 82. Averaged, Mammoth -1.5 lands 35.4% of the time against 42.8% priced. Lean Blackhawks +1.5 at -148, and only a lean: the moneyline is the one call this page bets.
Blackhawks at Mammoth, Thursday 1 October, 9:30 PM ET, Delta Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
