College Football
College Football · Saturday 10 October
UConn at Temple Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our number has UConn by 10.0. UConn is a bet at -7 or shorter, Temple at +13 or longer.
No spread had been posted for this game at DraftKings when we read ESPN on 28 September 2026. Our number is UConn by 10.0, and ESPN’s FPI points the other way. A side is a bet when the spread sits at least 3 points from our number.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Temple is 1-6 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 15.9 points a game across 7 games. UConn is 4-4 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 4.1 a game across 8 games. The difference is 20.0 points. Half of it, rounded, is 10.0.
Both samples clear the 4-game minimum. Two games in each come from 2026.
Temple at home
Temple’s one home win against an FBS team in the span was 27-21 over UTSA in 2025. The six losses were 42-3 to Oklahoma, 32-31 to Navy, 45-14 to East Carolina and 37-13 to Tulane in 2025, then 27-9 to Penn State on 12 September and 21-17 to Army on 25 September.
The 39-point loss to Oklahoma is the largest. Without it the other six home games average -12.0, a sum of -72 over 6. Temple’s home number stays poor with or without the blowout.
UConn on the road
UConn won 20-17 at Buffalo, 38-23 at Boston College and 48-45 at Florida Atlantic in 2025, and 48-20 at Southern Miss on 19 September. It lost 27-20 at Syracuse, 44-41 at Delaware and 37-34 at Rice in 2025, and 24-21 at Miami (OH) on 26 September.
Six of the eight were decided by 7 points or fewer. The two exceptions were wins, by 15 at Boston College and by 28 at Southern Miss, and they are what lifts the average to 4.1.
2026 so far
UConn is 2-2. It beat Lafayette 56-7, a team outside the FBS, lost 38-14 to Maryland at home, won 48-20 at Southern Miss and lost 24-21 at Miami (OH). Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 27.7 points a game and allowed 27.3. UConn plays as an independent, so this is not a conference game.
Temple is 1-3 and has lost three in a row. It beat Rhode Island 38-14, then lost 27-9 to Penn State, 49-48 at Toledo and 21-17 to Army. Against FBS teams it has scored 24.7 a game and allowed 32.3.
Last season
UConn went 9-4 in 2025 and won by 8.3 a game. It was 6-0 at home and 3-3 on the road, and its season ended with a 41-16 loss to Army on 27 December, at a neutral site.
Temple went 5-7 and was outscored by 1.8 a game, going 2-4 at home. The two teams did not play each other in 2025, and have not in 2026.
The price
There is none yet, for the spread, the total or the moneyline.
ESPN’s FPI gives Temple a 62.6% chance to win. Our number has UConn by 10.0. The two disagree on the winner.
Pick: UConn -7 or shorter, Temple +13 or longer
Until a line is posted, this is the call. At UConn -7 the gap is 3.0 and UConn is the bet, and the same holds at a pick’em or with UConn getting points. At Temple +13 the gap is 3.0 and Temple is the bet.
From UConn -7.5 to -12.5 the market sits within 3 points of our 10.0, and the call is a pass. It rests on 15 games, split 7 and 8.
What changes it
The posted line decides the side, and the full page re-reads it the week of the game. If the market leans toward FPI and makes Temple the favourite, UConn is the bet: at a pick’em the gap is already 10.0.
The case against UConn is its own 2026: 1-2 against FBS teams, with a 24-point home loss to Maryland. That game was at home, so the method does not count it. This page does not state who is available, so check the injury report before you bet.
UConn at Temple, Saturday 10 October, kickoff time listed as TBD by ESPN on 28 September 2026, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. Prices: none posted at DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.