One of the more popular summer sporting events, besides the MLB All-Star Game itself, is the annual Home Run Derby. The event pits several of the best power hitters in the majors against each other in a battle of dingers.

Where to Bet on the Home Run Derby

This year’s event takes place on Monday, July 12, at Coors Field in Colorado. Shohei Ohtani, who leads the majors with 31 homers, committed to participating in the Home Run Derby back in June.

Pete Alonso, the 2019 NL Rookie of the Year and 2019 home run king, is the reigning Home Run Derby champ. The All-Star Game and derby were not played last year due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Home Run Derby Rules

The contest is pretty straightforward. Players are matched up against one another in a bracket based on the derby’s seeding rules. Each player is given five minutes to hit as many home runs as possible. The winner of each matchup advances. The loser is eliminated.

In case of ties, there are three tie breakers. The first is a 90-second swing-off followed by a best-of-three swing-off and the final one is sudden death swing-offs until a winner is determined.

MLB Predictions Today

Fade the Favorite

Since 2010, only two derby favorites have gone on to win. Giancarlo Stanton, then a member of the Miami Marlins, won in 2016, and Bryce Harper won as the favorite in 2018. Bettors are likely better off fading the favorite and finding value farther down the betting board.

Shohei Ohtani is this year’s favorite at +260. That isn’t surprising as Ohtani leads MLB in homers and slugging percentage. He is the favorite to win the AL MVP as well. He has 33 homers for the season and his average HR distance is 417 feet. Remember though, favorites do not normally win the HR Derby.

Feel Good

There are two “feel good” stories in tonight’s competition. Trevor Story is the hometown hero at +1100. The Rockies star has played six seasons at Coors Field and has two 30-plus homer seasons. His problem is that he’ll face Joey Gallo (+360) in the first round. Gallo has 24 homers so far this season and has a good chance of hitting the longest home run tonight.

Baltimore’s Trey Mancini is back this season after missing all of 2020 with cancer. There is a reason why he is the longest longshot at +1700. He has 16 homers this season and his launch angle is the lowest of all eight competitors.

2021 Home Run Derby Prediction

The way the bracket is lined up for the HR Derby favors an Ohtani-Gallo final. That makes sense as they are the top two on the betting board. Remember, favorites do not normally win this event. This is Ohtani’s first crack at the HR Derby too while someone like Gallo has been here before.

Both offer some value. Ohtani at +260 still offers a nice return on investment; but Gallo offers more. Take Gallo at +360 to win it all.

MLB Odds Tonight

Odds to Win the Home Run Derby 2021

Shohei Ohtani, LAA +260

Joey Gallo, TEX +360

Pete Alonso, NYM +500

Matt Olson, OAK +500

Juan Soto, WAS +850

Salvador Perez, KC +1100

Trevor Story, COL +1100

Trey Mancini, BAL +1700

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