Major League Baseball’s sudden shift of the All-Star Game from Atlanta to Denver was, I guess, pretty good news for those people who like to watch things like the Home Run Derby contest, because the thin air gives Coors Field a reputation as sort of a homer haven to begin with.

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This year there were players like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who opted out of the Derby, presumably because they are fearful of screwing up their swings for the rest of the season. We’ve heard that kind of thing many times before. Because of the fact that a lot of these guys are swinging for the fences all year long anyway, however, I suspect we might hear that argument less and less as time goes on.

These players are in a bracket, matching up with each other in the first round, and we have put together some thoughts on those matchups, along with the overall winner and other props for sports bettors to consider betting on tonight.

MLB Home Run Derby Matchup Picks

PETE ALONSO (-260) over SALVADOR PEREZ (+220)

A seven-time All-Star, Perez is an example of one of those guys who is emphasizing a home run swing more now. He is, right now, just six round-trippers off his career high. And in the last 20 years, only two other catchers have had at least 20 homers at the All-Star break.

But Pete Alonso seems to have come out of the womb with a home run swing. He is, in fact, the defending champion at this event (they did not have it last year, of course). And he is talking like the kind of guy who has really been gunning for this thing. “I had a fun time winning it. I’m going to win it again,” he told reporters.

We would not expect Alonso to lay it all out there in the first round, as he’s talked about conserving swings. But having won this, he knows the path to victory. If there’s anything that might affect him on an overall basis, it’s that he is using a different pitcher in this competition, Last time it was his cousin, Derek Morgan. This time it is Mets bench coach Dave Jauss.

By the way, Alonso has 24 career plate appearances at Coors Field. He likes the place, and has acknowledged as much. He has three homers there, with a .455 batting average and 1.409 OPS. Yup, he likes it.

2021 MLB Home Run Derby Picks

TREY MANCINI (+200) over MATT OLSON (-240)

You want to look for underdogs here, and is there a bigger or better underdog than Trey Mancini, who sat out the 2020 season while being treated with chemotherapy for colon cancer? In what has been a dismal season for his Baltimore Orioles (27-59), Mancini has actually been rather eager to compete in this contest, because he wants to demonstrate on the biggest stage that there is hope for cancer survivors. And that’s fine with us.

Plus, he can hit the ball a long way. And he’s done it often enough to give us some confidence.

Truth be told, neither Olson nor Mancini comes into the All-Star break on a home run hot streak; Mancini has homered just twice in his last 17 games. Olson did hit two dingers on Sunday, but prior to that had only one homer in an 18-game stretch.

Neither of these guys has previous Derby experience. But Mancini is the guy with a “mission.” At this price, why the heck not?

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MLB Home Run Derby Longest Home Run Prop

LONGEST HOMER OVER 506.5 FEET (-155)

Joey Gallo may not win his first-round matchup, but we know he can hit the ball a long way. He has slammed a 495-foot home run in the past, and that appears to be his career high. Now imagine putting a batting practice pitcher into the mix, with the thin air in Denver. Oh, and all the talk in the media and around the clubhouse about who might hit one over 500 feet.

More than one of these guys is going for it. As far as this season is concerned, Shohei Ohtani has hit the longest recorded home run in this group, at 470 feet. Trevor Story is right behind at 466. Gallo has gone 462 feet this season. There are enough guys available who can get it done. These days they seem to accurately measure everything, and I suspect that will be the case here.

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