After spending about two decades working in the boxing betting industry, I have heard enough about how “styles make fights” and often it’s the same in the matchup between batter and pitcher.

MLB Sportsbooks

Simply put, some do better than others. And there isn’t a great explanation for much of it. I mean, does it make sense that Jerry Lynch, who only had 798 hits in a 13-year career, got on base nine times in eleven lifetime plate appearances against Sandy Koufax, with an OPS of 2.104?

So it’s with that in mind that, while working the graveyard shift, we perused some of the only games in which they had player props posted and came up with our strikeout props for two of the matchups on the board.

Twins vs. White Sox Pitching Analysis

Twins vs. White Sox Picks

MLB Strikeout Props Line: Michael Pineda Over 4.5 (-110) / Under 4.5 (-115)

The Play: OVER 4.5 (-110)

Pineda, who has averaged about a strikeout an inning in his career, has struck out the expected White Sox lineup once per ever 4.8 plate appearances (PA’s). And based on what he has faced on a per-inning basis, we would expect him to face 21.36 batters. So you are looking righty around 4.5 strikeouts as an expectation. Against Chicago this season, he’s had 11 K’s in 10-2/3 innings, and he has gone over five innings in half his starts, including the two against the White Sox, so at this price we would do a slight lean to the OVER.

MLB Run Line Odds

MLB Strikeout Props Line: Dylan Cease Over 6.5 (-155) / Under 6.5 (+115)

The Play: UNDER 6.5 (+115)

We’re expecting Cease to face 22 batters in this game, and he has not been overwhelming against the Twins’ lineup (24.5% K’s). So the “Minnesota-specific” expectation is 5.45 strikeouts, while on an overall basis the prospect is better, at 6.69, but does not give us enough justification to lay this price with him. So we will “cease” laying a price, and go UNDER with a better one (+115).

https://youtube.com/watch?v=RNbTJSEVQpU%3Frel%3D0

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Pitching Analysis

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Picks

MLB Strikeout Props Line: Robbie Ray Over 8.5 (+105) / Under 8.5 (-145)

The Play: UNDER 8.5 (-145)

Ray’s strikeout levels are pretty consistent. He has fanned the Red Sox hitters he’ll be facing just under 34% of the time. And we figure, based on his batters faced per inning and an average of six innings per start, he’ll face 24 batters. But his expectations even in a more favorable model (8.13 K’s) don’t support him here, and we have one model placing him at 7.66. So he’s got inflated odds, forcing us UNDER.

MLB Run Line Picks

MLB Strikeout Props Line: Garrett Richards Over 3.5 (-140) / Under 3.5 (+105)

The Play: UNDER 3.5 (+105)

The Blue Jays have not been a ton of fun for Richards, who has surrendered ten earned runs in 16-1/3 innings against the. So there is that possibility of an early exit.

Interestingly, Richards, not a big strikeout pitcher to begin with, has just a 12.7% strikeout rate against Toronto this year, and about 17% against the expected lineup he’ll be facing on a lifetime basis. No model we have puts him higher than four strikeouts, and some have him below three. So it’s UNDER for us.

Read our MLB strikeouts props betting guide to become more familiar with this type of wager.