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There’s nothing like getting off to a good start, right? That’s why they say breakfast is the most important meal of the day.
With all this in mind, we took some of Wednesday’s MLB games and came up with a forecast as to who is going to score the first run.
Some of this may surprise you.
MLB Props Predictions for August 11th 2021
ATLANTA BRAVES TO SCORE FIRST VS. CINCINNATI REDS
MLB Props Odds to Score First: Reds -160 / Braves +120
Starting Pitchers: Wade Miley (CIN) vs. Touki Toussaint (ATL)
Time: 7:20 PM ET
Wade Miley is actually on a pretty decent run right now, with a 1.93 ERA in his last five starts, which has brought his earned run average for the season below the 3.00 mark.
Toussaint has had a couple of strong performances, but hasn’t been able to stop many teams very well.
However, Cincinnati is not one of those teams he has failed against as a starter, since this is the first time he’s started a game against them.
And we are not being trite about that.
Miley usually gets the engine running after the first inning. But as he’s coming out of the gate, he has allowed eight runs in twenty starts, with four first inning homers fueling an .869 OPS.
Meanwhile, Toussaint, over the first two innings of his four starts, has allowed just three of the 28 batters he’s faced to reach base, and none of them has scored. It’s not until the third and fourth inning (generally when he’s going through the order a second time) that he’s blown up (1.460 and 1.550 OPS figures, respectively).
But on this kind of prop, we’re willing to take the price, since the Braves are the top team in the National League at scoring first inning runs (0.73 per game).
DETROIT TIGERS TO SCORE FIRST VS. BALTIMORE ORIOLES
MLB Props Odds to Score First: Tigers -165 / Orioles +130
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal (DET) vs.Matt Harvey (BALT)
Time: 7:05 PM ET
It’s safe to say that Matt Harvey’s comeback has not been a major success story. The right-hander, who had once started the All-Star Game as a member of the New York Mets, has an ERA of 6.13, and it hasn’t made a heck of a lot of difference whether he’s been at home or on the road. He has allowed 14 first inning runs in his 22 starts.
But let’s not disqualify him here just yet. Detroit’s Tarik Skubal has yielded 13 first inning runs in his 20 starts. And he gives way to power in the early stages of games, surrendering 18 home runs in the first three innings of action, allowing opponents to hit .296 and slug .556 in the first innings of those 20 starts.
The Tigers themselves have been slow offensive starters, ranking third from the bottom in first inning runs per game. However, they jump all the way up to fifth when it comes to the second inning, and that is quite a leap, as they are 50% more productive, so that may provide their edge as the road team.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS TO SCORE FIRST VS.SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
MLB Props Odds to Score First: Giants -140 / D-Backs +110
Starting Pitchers: Merrit Kelly (ARIZ) vs. Kevin Gausman (SF)
Time: 9:40 PM ET
The batting averages Kevin Gausman has given up over the first six innings of his starts are .210, .122, .177, .153, .206 and .172.
But now we’re going to tell you something very interesting. He’s made 22 starts and given up 13 runs in the first inning, as compared to 13 in the next five innings COMBINED. He has allowed twelve home runs all year, and half of them have come in the first inning. He has issued 39 walks, 14 in the opening frame.
Arizona’s Merrit Kelly took his first inning beating against the Giants on June 16 (four runs), but guess what? The D-Backs still scored first. Otherwise, he’s done pretty well against the NL West leaders this season.
Don’t get the wrong idea; his numbers don’t glow. But his mates may get to the recently-minted All-Star first.
ST.LOUIS CARDINALS TO SCORE FIRST VS. PITTSBURGH PIRATES
MLB Props Odds to Score First: Cardinals -190 / Pirates +145
Starting Pitchers: Adam Wainwright (STL) vs. Wil Crowe (PIT)
Time: 7:05 PM ET
We were saying to ourselves that things would have to look pretty ugly for us to lay this kind of price. And maybe they do.
Wil Crowe’s strikeout-walk ratio in the first inning is pretty close to even (1.22), but it is in the second stanza that things begin to get out of hand.
Crowe has allowed 16 second inning earned runs in 16 starts, as a whopping 36 batters have reached base, accounting for a robust 2.35 WHIP. He has surrendered ten extra base hits, including six home runs.
Wainwright has been remarkably consistent in the respect that in his 22 starts, he has struck out exactly 21 batters in each of the first four innings. It’s the first inning, however, when his ratio is best (21 K’s to two walks). Batters have a .464 OPS against him in the opening frame.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS TO SCORE FIRST VS. LOS ANGELES ANGELS
MLB Props Odds to Score First: Blue Jays -200 / Angels +160
Starting Pitchers: Alek Manoah (TOR) vs. Dylan Bundy (LAA)
Time: 9:35 PM ET
In case you hadn’t heard, Alek Manoah has got his act together as a rookie. The 2019 first-round draft pick has held opponents to a .180 batting average. And he is particularly tough when he comes out fresh at the beginning of a game.
Over the first two innings of his ten starts, Manoah has fanned 30 of the 75 batters he faced (40%) and allowed three runs on eight hits in those 20 innings.
Once upon a time, Dylan Bundy was a red-hot prospect. That’s long since worn off, and he is 2-9 with a 6.14 ERA. He also allowed seven second-inning homers in his 16 starts.
Bundy hasn’t exactly been eaten alive by the guys in this Toronto batting order, but as good as their offense is, just give them the opportunity.
Read our guides about betting on MLB home run props and MLB pitching props.
