MLB Home Run Derby Odds 2026: Walker Wins Epic Final

MLB Home Run Derby Odds are officially settled after Jordan Walker defeated Kyle Schwarber 12-11 in a dramatic final at Citizens Bank Park. Walker entered the event around +550 to +600 and became the first St. Louis Cardinals player to win the Derby.

Walker completed one of the most impressive finishes in Derby history. Facing elimination with only one swing remaining, he launched six consecutive home runs, including four straight do-or-die homers, to erase Schwarber’s lead and win the championship.

Schwarber nearly delivered the hometown result after entering as the favorite around +300 to +340. He advanced through every round and hit 11 home runs in the final, but Walker’s late surge denied Philadelphia its first hometown Derby champion.

The previous ScoresAndStats prediction backed Junior Caminero to win and Ben Rice as the best early value. Caminero reached the semifinals and hit the longest home run of the night at 491 feet, while Rice was eliminated in the opening round.

MLB Home Run Derby Odds Final Update

Walker delivered the most valuable outright result among the leading contenders. His price was long enough to reward bettors without requiring the extreme upset represented by Willson Contreras at approximately +2000.

Contreras still produced one of the best tournament performances. He earned the top semifinal seed and came within one home run of eliminating Schwarber.

Bettors returning to the regular-season schedule can compare current moneylines, totals and player props through the ScoresAndStats MLB odds.

Derby Market	Final-Day Range	Final Result
Kyle Schwarber	+300 to +340	Runner-up
Junior Caminero	+350 to +490	Lost in semifinals
Munetaka Murakami	Around +500	Eliminated in Round 1
Jordan Walker	+550 to +600	Champion
Bryce Harper	Around +650	Eliminated in Round 1
Jac Caglianone	Around +750	Eliminated in Round 1
Ben Rice	+900 to +950	Eliminated in Round 1
Willson Contreras	Around +2000	Lost in semifinals

Walker’s winning price showed why bettors should look beyond the two shortest options in a high-variance eight-player competition. He had elite raw power without carrying the same hometown or previous-runner-up premium as Schwarber and Caminero.

2026 Home Run Derby Final Results

The first round produced 80 home runs. The semifinals added 28 before Walker and Schwarber combined for another 23 during the championship round.

Walker did not lead every statistical category. Caminero produced the longest home run, while Caminero and Caglianone reached the highest recorded exit velocity. Walker won because he combined elite distance with the best late-round efficiency.

Final Position	Player	Round 1	Semifinal	Final	Total HR
Champion	Jordan Walker	13	6	12	31
Runner-Up	Kyle Schwarber	10	9	11	30
Semifinalist	Willson Contreras	13	8	N/A	21
Semifinalist	Junior Caminero	12	5	N/A	17
Round 1	Munetaka Murakami	9	N/A	N/A	9
Round 1	Bryce Harper	8	N/A	N/A	8
Round 1	Jac Caglianone	8	N/A	N/A	8
Round 1	Ben Rice	7	N/A	N/A	7

The final totals demonstrate how narrow the margin was. One additional Schwarber home run or one Walker miss during the closing streak would have changed the champion.

Home Run Derby Field and Final-Day Odds

Schwarber’s price reflected more than his regular-season home run total. Citizens Bank Park, the Philadelphia crowd and his previous Derby experience all increased public interest.

Caminero’s 2025 runner-up finish created a similar premium. His performance justified the respect, but the fixed-swing format did not allow him to recover from a five-homer semifinal.

Walker occupied the strongest middle-market position. He had enough power to match the favorites without being priced as though reaching the final was expected.

Participant	Team	Final-Day Odds	Tournament Finish
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	+300 to +340	Runner-up
Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	+350 to +490	Semifinalist
Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox	Around +500	Round 1
Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	+550 to +600	Champion
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Around +650	Round 1
Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Around +750	Round 1
Ben Rice	New York Yankees	+900 to +950	Round 1
Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Around +2000	Semifinalist

Contreras produced the best performance relative to his outright price. Walker delivered the winning value, while Schwarber came closest to validating the favorite position.

How Jordan Walker Won the Home Run Derby

Walker won through pull-side power, efficient contact and one extraordinary closing streak. He hit 13 home runs during the opening round, matching Contreras for the highest total.

His first-round home runs averaged 428 feet, and 10 traveled at least 420 feet. That distance profile showed that Walker did not need the most favorable part of the Philadelphia dimensions to advance.

Walker required only six home runs to defeat Caminero in the semifinal. He then entered the final against a crowd-supported Schwarber and fell three home runs behind with only one standard swing remaining.

Walker homered on that swing to activate the do-or-die continuation. He kept homering until he had passed Schwarber, completing the championship with six straight successful swings.

Walker Tournament Factor	Result	Why It Mattered
Round 1 Home Runs	13	Secured No. 2 semifinal seed
Semifinal Home Runs	6	Eliminated Caminero efficiently
Final Home Runs	12	Passed Schwarber by one
Final Closing Streak	Six consecutive homers	Turned likely defeat into victory
Longest Tournament Homer	470 feet	Confirmed elite raw power
Total Home Runs	31	Most in the tournament

The victory made Walker the first Cardinals Derby champion. It also established him as an obvious future contender if he accepts another invitation.

Jordan Walker vs. Kyle Schwarber Final

Schwarber set a difficult target by hitting 11 home runs. He began with a 444-foot shot and launched six homers within his first eight swings.

Walker appeared finished after falling three behind with one swing remaining. The new continuation rule kept the final alive because each successful last-chance swing generated another opportunity.

The Cardinals slugger did not miss. Four consecutive do-or-die home runs carried him from elimination to a 12-11 victory.

Schwarber’s runner-up performance was still excellent. He hit 30 total home runs, advanced from the fourth seed and came within one Walker miss of winning in front of the Philadelphia crowd.

Final Statistic	Jordan Walker	Kyle Schwarber
Home Runs	12	11
Longest Home Run	455 feet	445 feet
Hardest Home Run	113 mph	113 mph
Average Distance	429 feet	416 feet
Average Exit Velocity	107 mph	107 mph
Final Outcome	Champion	Runner-up

The final was a reminder that an outright Derby ticket remains alive until the hitter records the last unsuccessful swing. Walker’s championship probability changed dramatically within seconds.

Home Run Derby Semifinal Results

Contreras earned the top seed through the longest-home-run tiebreaker after matching Walker with 13 in Round 1. That placed him against fourth-seeded Schwarber.

Schwarber advanced 9-8 after recovering from three unsuccessful opening swings. Contreras had an opportunity to tie on his final swing but produced an out.

Walker faced Caminero in the other semifinal. Caminero dropped from 12 opening-round home runs to five, allowing Walker to advance after reaching six.

Semifinal Matchup	Winner	Final Score	Key Moment
Willson Contreras vs. Kyle Schwarber	Kyle Schwarber	9-8	Contreras missed tying final swing
Jordan Walker vs. Junior Caminero	Jordan Walker	6-5	Walker needed only six homers

Both semifinals were decided by one home run. That variance made short outright prices difficult to justify, even when the favorites possessed stronger season-long power numbers.

Home Run Derby First-Round Results

Contreras and Walker led the opening round with 13 home runs. Contreras earned the No. 1 seed because his 490-foot blast exceeded Walker’s longest home run of 470 feet.

Caminero advanced with 12, while Schwarber claimed the final semifinal position with 10. Murakami finished one home run short after recording nine.

Harper and Caglianone each hit eight. Rice finished last with seven after failing to homer until his fifth swing.

Round 1 Rank	Player	Home Runs	Longest HR	Result
1	Willson Contreras	13	490 feet	Advanced
2	Jordan Walker	13	470 feet	Advanced
3	Junior Caminero	12	487 feet	Advanced
4	Kyle Schwarber	10	461 feet	Advanced
5	Munetaka Murakami	9	466 feet	Eliminated
6	Bryce Harper	8	482 feet	Eliminated
7	Jac Caglianone	8	477 feet	Eliminated
8	Ben Rice	7	443 feet	Eliminated

Schwarber advanced despite hitting fewer Round 1 home runs than three competitors. His fourth-place position placed him against the strongest opening-round hitter, but he still reached the championship.

How the New Home Run Derby Format Worked

The 2026 Derby replaced timed rounds with a fixed number of swings. Each player received 20 swings in Round 1 and 15 during the semifinals and final.

Every swing counted, including misses, fouls and balls hit short of the fence. That rewarded hitters who found their launch position quickly and punished slow starts.

The top four first-round totals advanced and were reseeded. Ties were separated by longest home run, which gave Contreras the No. 1 seed over Walker.

The final-swing continuation became the defining rule. A home run on the last available swing generated another do-or-die opportunity until the hitter recorded a non-homer.

Format Element	2026 Rule	Betting Impact
Round 1	20 swings	Slow starts became difficult to overcome
Semifinals	15 swings	Increased head-to-head variance
Final	15 swings	Efficiency mattered more than stamina
Round 1 Advancement	Top four totals	No predetermined opening bracket
Round 1 Tiebreaker	Longest home run	Distance affected semifinal seeding
Final-Swing Continuation	Keep swinging after each homer	Allowed Walker’s championship comeback

The format produced more strategic clarity than a timer, but it did not remove volatility. Schwarber and Contreras both recovered from slow starts, while Rice and Harper ran out of swings before completing their late rallies.

Longest Home Run and Statcast Results

Caminero hit the longest home run at 491 feet during his semifinal loss to Walker. The blast passed Contreras’ 490-foot first-round homer by one foot.

Caminero and Caglianone each reached 116 mph on their hardest home runs. Contreras produced the highest first-round average distance at 449 feet.

The distance results supported the original Caminero power analysis. He displayed the largest single-swing ceiling but could not convert that advantage into enough semifinal home runs.

Statcast Category	Leader	Result
Longest Home Run	Junior Caminero	491 feet
Second-Longest Home Run	Willson Contreras	490 feet
Hardest Home Run	Caminero and Jac Caglianone	116 mph
Best Round 1 Average Distance	Willson Contreras	449 feet
Champion’s Longest Home Run	Jordan Walker	470 feet
Most Total Home Runs	Jordan Walker	31

Longest-home-run props remain different from outright bets. Caminero cashed the distance result without winning the tournament, while Walker captured the title without producing one of the two longest blasts.

Home Run Derby Betting Results

Walker was the outright betting winner at approximately +550 to +600. Schwarber and Caminero justified their short prices by advancing, but neither completed the tournament.

Contreras produced the strongest deep-longshot performance. A semifinal or top-four market on the approximately +2000 entrant would have delivered value even though he lost to Schwarber.

Caminero won the longest-home-run result with his 491-foot semifinal blast. He also tied Caglianone for the highest exit velocity.

Rice failed to advance, eliminating one of the more popular sleeper positions. His seven home runs were the lowest first-round total.

Betting Category	Winning Result	Betting Takeaway
Outright Winner	Jordan Walker	Midrange price beat two favorites
Finalist	Walker and Schwarber	Power and tournament rhythm prevailed
Longest Home Run	Junior Caminero, 491 feet	Best distance bat did not win outright
Top Longshot Performance	Willson Contreras	Approximately +2000 entrant reached semifinal
Hometown Result	Schwarber runner-up	Crowd angle nearly cashed but raised price
Sleeper Miss	Ben Rice	Slow start proved too costly

Regular MLB betting resumes after All-Star Week. Daily analysis and selections are available through the ScoresAndStats MLB picks.

Home Run Derby Betting Lessons

The first lesson is that every swing matters under the new format. Rice, Harper and Murakami all improved after slow starts but did not have enough swings remaining to advance.

The second lesson is that raw distance and outright value should remain separate. Caminero hit the longest home run but lost to a hitter who needed only six semifinal homers.

Hometown narratives can also create expensive prices. Schwarber nearly won, but bettors paid a premium for the Philadelphia setting and crowd support.

Walker and Contreras showed the value available further down the board. Both matched or exceeded the favorites during Round 1 without carrying the shortest outright numbers.

Betting Lesson	2026 Example	2027 Approach
Prioritize Swing Efficiency	Slow starts eliminated Rice and Harper	Study contact and launch consistency
Separate Distance From Outright	Caminero hit 491 feet but lost	Use different players for different props
Avoid Hometown Overpricing	Schwarber was the short favorite	Demand a fair price on Cubs hitters
Consider Midrange Contenders	Walker won around +550 to +600	Do not limit cards to two favorites
Respect Longest-HR Tiebreaker	Contreras earned No. 1 seed	Distance affects bracket path
Keep Stakes Controlled	Both semifinals decided by one homer	Treat the Derby as high variance

For broader guidance on implied probability, novelty markets and bankroll control, review the ScoresAndStats Expert Betting Guide.

Recent Home Run Derby Winners

Walker became the sixth different Derby champion across the last six completed events. Pete Alonso remains the most recent repeat winner after claiming consecutive titles in 2019 and 2021.

Walker also became the first Cardinals player to win the competition. Schwarber finished as runner-up for the second time after previously losing the 2018 final to Bryce Harper.

Year	Winner	Runner-Up	Venue
2026	Jordan Walker	Kyle Schwarber	Citizens Bank Park
2025	Cal Raleigh	Junior Caminero	Truist Park
2024	Teoscar Hernández	Bobby Witt Jr.	Globe Life Field
2023	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Randy Arozarena	T-Mobile Park
2022	Juan Soto	Julio Rodríguez	Dodger Stadium
2021	Pete Alonso	Trey Mancini	Coors Field

Recent history continues to favor first-time champions. Previous Derby success remains useful, but it should not automatically move a returning participant ahead of a fairly priced breakout power hitter.

Early 2027 Home Run Derby Outlook

The 2027 Home Run Derby is scheduled for Monday, July 12, at Wrigley Field in Chicago. The event will again stream exclusively on Netflix.

Wrigley creates a very different betting environment from Philadelphia. Wind direction can transform the ballpark from an excellent home-run venue into one of the most difficult places to clear the fences.

The weather forecast should become one of the most important handicapping factors. A strong wind blowing out could favor extreme raw-power hitters and produce aggressive tournament totals. Wind blowing in would place greater emphasis on pull-side location and consistent barrel contact.

Cubs hitters will attract immediate public interest if they participate. Bettors should avoid paying an automatic hometown premium before comparing their batted-ball profiles with the rest of the field.

No legitimate 2027 participant or outright market is available this early. The page should remain a 2026 results article until MLB begins confirming next year’s eight-player field.

Official event and venue updates are available through MLB’s Home Run Derby page.

2027 Derby Detail	Current Information	Early Betting Impact
Date	Monday, July 12, 2027	Markets remain nearly one year away
Venue	Wrigley Field	Wind becomes a major handicap
Location	Chicago, Illinois	Cubs participants may be overpriced
Streaming	Netflix	Same national platform as 2026
Confirmed Participants	None	Do not publish projected field as official
Current Odds	Not available	Avoid unsupported early prices

The earliest useful 2027 update will come when MLB confirms the format and begins announcing participants. Weather, pitcher selections and final-day prices should still be reviewed before publishing the complete betting card.

Final Home Run Derby Recap

Walker won the 2026 Home Run Derby by defeating Schwarber 12-11. He hit 31 total home runs and completed the tournament with six consecutive successful swings.

Schwarber delivered the best hometown performance but fell one home run short. Contreras was the top longshot, while Caminero produced the night’s longest homer.

The new fixed-swing format rewarded efficient contact and created enormous pressure on every miss. It also produced the rule that made Walker’s dramatic comeback possible.

The previous Caminero and Rice predictions did not cash. The larger betting lesson is to build a diversified card that separates outright, advance and distance markets rather than asking one player to win every category.

More All-Star Week betting results are available in the updated ScoresAndStats MLB All-Star Game Odds recap.

Final Category	2026 Result	Betting Takeaway
Champion	Jordan Walker	Midrange outright value won
Runner-Up	Kyle Schwarber	Favorite nearly delivered hometown win
Longest Home Run	Junior Caminero, 491 feet	Distance and outright markets separated
Top Longshot	Willson Contreras	Reached final four around +2000
Total Tournament HR	131	Fixed swings still produced major power
2027 Venue	Wrigley Field	Wind will shape the market

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