MLB MVP Odds and Predictions 2026: Alvarez, PCA Lead

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MLB MVP Odds and Predictions have become heavily concentrated entering the final month of the 2026 regular season. Yordan Alvarez is now an overwhelming American League favorite around -5000 after building a Triple Crown-caliber offensive résumé, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has surged to approximately -1600 in the National League after overtaking Shohei Ohtani.

Alvarez enters September batting .316 with 37 home runs, 94 RBI and a 1.036 OPS. Junior Caminero is the only realistic AL challenger at approximately +1400, but the Rays third baseman still trails Alvarez substantially in overall offensive production despite matching him with 37 home runs.

The NL race changed even more dramatically. Crow-Armstrong now owns 38 home runs, 32 stolen bases, elite center-field defense and approximately 8.5 WAR. Ohtani remains the only realistic challenger around +900 after contributing both 30 home runs and an 8-2 record with a 1.79 ERA earlier in the season, but he has not pitched since July.

Alvarez and Crow-Armstrong remain the ScoresAndStats MVP predictions. Neither current favorite offers an attractive new betting price, however. The best strategy in September is to preserve strong earlier futures positions rather than chase enormous minus-money odds.

Quick MLB MVP Betting Takeaways

• AL MVP favorite: Yordan Alvarez around -5000.
• AL MVP prediction: Yordan Alvarez.
• Best AL challenger: Junior Caminero around +1400.
• Best AL longshot profile: Bobby Witt Jr. around +6000 to +6600.
• NL MVP favorite: Pete Crow-Armstrong around -1600.
• NL MVP prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong.
• Only realistic NL challenger: Shohei Ohtani around +900.
• Best existing ticket: Crow-Armstrong near even money or Alvarez at earlier minus prices.
• Best current strategy: Avoid chasing either heavy favorite at today’s price.

How MLB MVP Voting Works

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America selects one Most Valuable Player in each league. Thirty writers vote in the American League and another 30 vote in the National League.

Each voter submits a 10-player ballot. First place is worth 14 points, followed by nine points for second and then eight, seven, six, five, four, three, two and one through 10th place.

Only regular-season performance counts. Ballots are submitted before postseason games are played, so October results cannot improve or damage an MVP résumé.

The award also does not require the winner to play for a postseason team. The official ballot specifically allows voters to define “valuable” individually while considering offense, defense, games played, overall value and other regular-season contributions.

That distinction matters in 2026 because Alvarez plays for a Houston team hovering around .500, while Caminero’s Rays own the best record in the American League. Team success can strengthen a close argument, but it does not automatically override a major individual statistical advantage.

The full voting system is available through the official BBWAA voting FAQ.

AL MLB MVP Odds and Predictions 2026

The American League market is close to settled. Alvarez is trading around -5000 at BetMGM, while Caminero is the only challenger shorter than approximately 50-1.

Alvarez at -5000 carries an implied probability of approximately 98.0 percent before sportsbook margin. A bettor must risk $5,000 to win $100 at that price.

Caminero at +1400 requires only a 6.7 percent break-even probability, but the wager still depends on Alvarez suffering either a major slump or an injury during the final weeks.

AL MVP Statistics Comparison

The offensive comparison explains why Alvarez has become such an overwhelming favorite. He is tied with Caminero for the AL home run lead while owning major advantages in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS.

Witt is the only player in this group with more WAR than Alvarez, but his MVP case depends heavily on defense, baserunning and premium shortstop value. The offensive gap is simply too large for him to become a serious favorite without a major Alvarez collapse.

Caminero is much closer in the traditional offensive categories. He has matched Alvarez’s home run total and plays third base, but the 132-point OPS gap remains enormous this late in the season.

Yordan Alvarez MVP Prediction

Yordan Alvarez remains the clear ScoresAndStats prediction to win the 2026 American League MVP Award.

Alvarez enters September batting .316 with 37 home runs, 94 RBI, a .433 on-base percentage and a .603 slugging percentage. His 1.036 OPS separates him substantially from every other serious AL candidate.

He also enters the final month with a realistic Triple Crown opportunity. Alvarez leads the American League in batting average and RBI while sharing the home run lead with Caminero.

That combination is particularly powerful for voters because the traditional categories and advanced metrics point in the same direction. Alvarez owns approximately 5.9 WAR despite spending most of his season at designated hitter.

The DH role remains the only meaningful weakness. Caminero provides defensive value at third base, Witt plays a premium shortstop position and Dingler catches. Alvarez must create enough offensive separation to overcome the lack of defensive contribution.

He has done exactly that so far.

Houston’s mediocre overall record should not prevent Alvarez from winning. The Astros remain in the AL West race, and MVP voting rules explicitly state that the winner does not have to come from a division champion or playoff qualifier.

The betting decision is different from the prediction. At -5000, Alvarez is too expensive for most new futures positions. Even a 98 percent implied probability provides very little reward for assuming several weeks of injury and performance risk.

ScoresAndStats AL MVP Prediction: Yordan Alvarez.

Betting Decision: Do not chase -5000. Existing earlier tickets should be held.

Junior Caminero MVP Odds at +1400

Junior Caminero is the only realistic direct challenger to Alvarez. The Rays third baseman is batting .283 with 37 home runs, 88 RBI and a .904 OPS.

His strongest argument begins with power. Caminero is tied with Alvarez for the American League home run lead and could potentially separate himself with a strong September.

Caminero also creates defensive value at third base and plays for a Tampa Bay team that enters September with the best record in the American League.

If he finishes with approximately 45 home runs while Tampa Bay earns the No. 1 seed, Caminero will have a legitimate season to place prominently on MVP ballots.

The problem is that he cannot erase the existing offensive gap simply by matching Alvarez in home runs. Alvarez leads by more than 30 points in batting average, more than 60 points in on-base percentage and more than 130 points in OPS.

Caminero therefore needs both his own extraordinary finish and help from the favorite.

The +1400 price is not unreasonable, but it is not an automatic value simply because Alvarez is -5000. The true question is whether Caminero wins the award more than approximately 6.7 percent of the time.

He becomes more attractive at +1600 or longer. At +1400, this is a small challenger position rather than a primary wager.

Our Best AL Challenger: Junior Caminero at +1600 or better.

Bobby Witt Jr. MVP Longshot

Bobby Witt Jr. remains the strongest all-around AL player outside the top two, but his MVP path is extremely narrow at approximately +6000 to +6600.

Witt has accumulated approximately 6.3 WAR while batting .285 with 16 home runs and 37 stolen bases. His combination of shortstop defense, speed and offense creates tremendous total value.

The problem is traditional production. Alvarez has 21 more home runs and 44 more RBI, while Caminero also owns a massive power advantage.

Witt’s case would require voters to place exceptional emphasis on defense, baserunning and positional difficulty. That argument is defensible, but it becomes difficult when the offensive favorite owns a Triple Crown-level résumé.

The long odds are appropriate rather than obviously generous.

ScoresAndStats View: Witt is the best complete-player longshot, but +6000 does not overcome Alvarez's statistical advantage.

Ben Rice MVP Odds at +8000

Ben Rice remains one of the more interesting power longshots after emerging as a critical Yankees hitter during Aaron Judge’s extended absence.

Rice enters September with 35 home runs and 86 RBI, putting him only two homers behind Alvarez and Caminero.

The overall offensive profile is not close enough to Alvarez, however. Rice is batting .252 with a .346 on-base percentage and .865 OPS.

His 2.6 WAR also falls well below the totals produced by Alvarez, Caminero and Witt.

A 40-plus-homer season during Judge’s absence would be an excellent individual accomplishment, but it is more likely to earn down-ballot support than first-place votes.

ScoresAndStats View: Rice is a deep +8000 longshot, not a recommended MVP wager.

How Aaron Judge’s Injury Changed the AL MVP Race

The 2026 AL MVP market changed when Aaron Judge suffered a stress fracture in his right first rib and stopped playing after May 31.

Judge opened as one of the clear award favorites after winning consecutive MVP trophies in 2024 and 2025. He moved into minus-money territory during the spring before the injury removed him from the board.

The Yankees still expect Judge to return during September. He traveled with the club on its West Coast trip and has progressed through hitting work while hoping to avoid a Minor League rehab assignment.

A return would be extremely important to New York’s postseason outlook, but the missed time has effectively ended Judge’s MVP defense.

His absence opened the award for Alvarez, who took control by producing elite offense without missing a comparable amount of time.

It also demonstrates the danger of season-long award futures. A player can be the correct preseason favorite and still become unable to win because of an injury that eliminates too many games from his résumé.

NL MLB MVP Odds and Predictions 2026

The National League market has become almost as concentrated as the AL. Crow-Armstrong is now approximately -1600 across major sportsbooks, while Ohtani is available around +900.

Most other contenders have disappeared from meaningful betting consideration. Some books still list Kyle Tucker at extreme longshot prices, but the practical award race is between Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani.

Crow-Armstrong’s -1600 price implies approximately 94.1 percent break-even probability before sportsbook margin. Ohtani at +900 needs only a 10 percent chance to justify the wager.

That mathematical gap is enormous, but so is the current gap in all-around value.

NL MVP Statistics Comparison

Crow-Armstrong has created separation through the combination of power, speed, defense and durability. Ohtani remains a unique two-way candidate, but his pitching résumé has been frozen since July.

Ohtani’s WAR total includes his pitching contribution. Before leaving the Dodgers rotation, he went 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA and 95 strikeouts across 85 2/3 innings.

Crow-Armstrong generates almost all of his value as an everyday position player. His offense alone now compares favorably with Ohtani’s, and he adds elite center-field defense plus 32 stolen bases.

Pete Crow-Armstrong MVP Prediction

Pete Crow-Armstrong remains the ScoresAndStats prediction to win the 2026 National League MVP Award.

The Cubs center fielder enters September with 38 home runs, 91 RBI and 32 stolen bases while batting around .280. He has also accumulated approximately 8.5 WAR, putting him well ahead of Ohtani in overall current value.

The most important development came at the end of August. Crow-Armstrong hit five home runs across two games, rapidly moving up the MLB home run leaderboard and transforming the betting market.

He has now produced 14 home runs over approximately the past month and 17 since the All-Star break. The late surge removed much of the offensive argument that previously favored Ohtani.

Crow-Armstrong also has a realistic chance to finish with 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases. Reaching that milestone while playing elite defense in center field would create one of the most complete MVP résumés in recent memory.

Chicago’s Wild Card position adds another layer. The Cubs have one of baseball’s strongest run differentials, and Crow-Armstrong has become one of the defining players on a postseason contender.

The betting value, however, is largely gone. A -1600 wager requires risking $1,600 to win $100.

Bettors who took Crow-Armstrong near -110, +100 or at even longer prices earlier in the year hold excellent positions. New bettors should avoid paying the current premium unless the market moves substantially.

ScoresAndStats NL MVP Prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Betting Decision: Hold earlier tickets. Do not chase -1600.

Shohei Ohtani MVP Odds at +900

Shohei Ohtani is the only realistic challenger left in the National League market at approximately +900.

That price would have seemed impossible earlier in the season. Ohtani opened as a heavy favorite, moved as short as approximately -1500 during the summer and appeared headed toward a fourth consecutive MVP.

His pitching interruption changed the race. Ohtani has not pitched since July while dealing with left knee inflammation and right biceps discomfort.

Before the interruption, he was producing one of the strongest pitching seasons in baseball. Ohtani went 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 95 strikeouts in 85 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers have continued building him back toward a potential September return to the mound. He resumed throwing, progressed to live batting practice and remains expected to pitch again if his health allows it.

A pitching return is now essential to his MVP path because Crow-Armstrong has surpassed him offensively in several major counting categories.

Ohtani is batting .281 with 30 home runs, 80 RBI, 10 stolen bases and a .911 OPS. Those are excellent numbers, but they are no longer enough to overcome Crow-Armstrong’s defense, speed and eight-home-run advantage on hitting alone.

The +900 price is intriguing precisely because Ohtani is one of the few players capable of changing the comparison quickly. If he returns to the rotation, dominates several September starts and simultaneously produces a strong offensive finish, the race could reopen.

That is a difficult scenario rather than the most likely outcome.

Our NL Challenger Price: Ohtani becomes worth considering at +1000 or better if his pitching return is confirmed.

Pete Crow-Armstrong vs. Shohei Ohtani for NL MVP

The NL MVP decision is ultimately a comparison between Crow-Armstrong’s everyday five-tool value and Ohtani’s partial two-way season.

If Ohtani were still pitching every week, this comparison would be considerably closer. His 1.79 ERA created enough additional value to separate him from almost every normal position player.

The long pitching absence changed the calculation. Crow-Armstrong has continued accumulating defensive and baserunning value every day while simultaneously becoming one of baseball’s leading home run hitters.

Ohtani’s remaining path requires September to look substantially different from August. Crow-Armstrong’s path simply requires avoiding a major collapse.

MLB MVP Odds Movement Since August

The difference between the August and September markets shows how quickly award futures can change when a player creates meaningful statistical separation.

Alvarez continued shortening because his Triple Crown position remained intact while the challengers failed to close the overall offensive gap.

Crow-Armstrong produced the more dramatic change. The NL was essentially a pick’em between him and Ohtani in early August. It is now priced as a race Crow-Armstrong should win more than nine times out of 10.

The lesson is important for futures betting. The best time to bet an emerging award favorite is before the market fully recognizes the statistical separation, not after a major performance causes every sportsbook to react.

Previous MLB MVP Picks Updated

The August ScoresAndStats update selected Alvarez as the AL MVP prediction and Crow-Armstrong as the NL MVP prediction. Both selections have strengthened considerably in the betting market.

The Crow-Armstrong recommendation produced the most meaningful closing-line value. A bettor holding -110 needs to risk approximately $110 to win $100. The same outcome now requires approximately $1,600 of risk for every $100 of potential profit.

The challenger positions moved the opposite direction. Caminero and Ohtani remain alive, but the market now assigns dramatically lower probabilities to both.

Existing Alvarez and Crow-Armstrong tickets should be held. There is no reason to replace them with today’s much shorter prices.

Recent MLB MVP Winners

The recent winners show how unusual the 2026 races could become. Judge and Ohtani have dominated the awards over the past several seasons, but neither is currently favored to win in 2026.

Alvarez would become the first new AL MVP winner since Ohtani’s 2023 victory broke up Judge’s run. Crow-Armstrong would become a first-time MVP and end Ohtani’s streak of three consecutive awards.

Ohtani still has an opportunity to make history. A comeback victory would give him four consecutive MVP awards, something no player has accomplished.

Final MLB MVP Odds and Predictions

The final month begins with two clear MVP favorites and very little reason to oppose either based on the current statistical evidence.

Alvarez owns the strongest offensive résumé in the American League. He is positioned for a possible Triple Crown and has created enough separation that the disadvantage of playing designated hitter is unlikely to cost him the award.

Crow-Armstrong has built the stronger all-around National League résumé. His combination of 38 home runs, 32 stolen bases, elite center-field defense and approximately 8.5 WAR now gives him substantially more total value than Ohtani.

The problem is that neither favorite provides attractive September betting value.

Caminero provides the cleaner challenger path because he remains tied with Alvarez in home runs and plays every day for the AL’s best team. His problem is that Alvarez can continue producing normally and still maintain the award advantage.

Ohtani’s +900 price is more interesting because his potential return to pitching creates a genuine mechanism for changing the NL comparison. The wager should still wait for confirmation that he will actually return to the Dodgers rotation.

Crow-Armstrong and Alvarez are therefore much stronger predictions than new bets. Earlier futures positions carry significantly better value than anything available today.

Bettors can compare current game markets through the ScoresAndStats MLB odds page and follow daily selections through MLB picks. The relationship between these individual awards and team championship markets is also covered in the updated World Series odds and predictions.

Our 2026 AL MVP Prediction: Yordan Alvarez.

Our 2026 NL MVP Prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong.

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