NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge

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As we prepare to turn the calendars to September, NASCAR’s Cup Series and Craftsman Truck Series turn the pages on their regular seasons as their Playoffs begin. Both circuits will head to Darlington Raceway and a date with “The Lady in Black.”

It’s going to be an exciting weekend as these two circuits will open their Playoffs at the “Track Too Tough to Tame.” So, you know there’s going to be plenty of drama in both races.

The Truck Series will slot in on Saturday afternoon, August 30, for the Sober or Slammer 200 beginning at 12pm ET on FS1.

The Cup Series will be in their usual Sunday position for the traditional Cook Out Southern 500 beginning at 6pm ET on USA Network and HBO MAX.

The Xfinity Series will also compete on Saturday, August 30, but they will be at the Portland International Raceway for the Pacific Office Automation 147. This road-course race can be seen in its entirety beginning at 7:30pm ET on The CW.

If you miss any of this weekend’s races in Darlington or Portland, we’ve got you covered with our weekly NASCAR results. So, without any further delay, pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this week. Feel free to use any of these for your NASCAR bets this weekend and don’t forget to check out our best handicappers.

NASCAR Picks Today

NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week

• Race: Cook Out Southern 500
• Race #: 27th of the season
• Date: August 31
• Where: Darlington Raceway

The NASCAR Cup Series will make its second trip to Darlington Raceway this weekend as it kicks off the 10-week Postseason.

16 drivers are locked into the Playoffs and only 12 will advance after the first round of races. Each round consists of three races total. So, every lap and point counts if the driver wants to advance.

Kyle Larson, William Byron, Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin sit as the pre-race favorites to win the Cook Out Southern 500. It’s not a surprise that all four of them are also at the top of the odds-on favorites to win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

As we head back to Daytona for the final race of the regular season, 14 of the 16 Playoff spots are all sewed up. Realistically, anyone below the cutoff line will need to win this race on Saturday night to get into the Playoffs. Otherwise, Reddick and Bowman should lockup the final spots.

Can Hamlin sweep the Darlington races this year? Will a non-Playoff driver win this Darlington race? Will a Playoff driver win and advance to the next round?

Cook Out Southern 500 Odds

• Kyle Larson (+500)
• William Byron (+500)
• Ryan Blaney (+600)
• Denny Hamlin (+600)
• Tyler Reddick (+700)
• Chase Briscoe (+1200)
• Christopher Bell (+1200)
• Joey Logano (+1600)
• Bubba Wallace (+1600)
• Brad Keselowski (+1800)
• Chase Elliott (+1800)
• Ross Chastain (+2000)

Cook Out Southern 500 Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Cook Out Southern 500 on Sunday:

Kyle Larson (+500) starts off the Playoffs at the top of the standings and as the odds-on favorite to win this Darlington race. He’s crashed out of two Darlington races in the last three NASCAR Cup events held there. However, both were the spring races.

In the Southern 500, Larson was 4^th last year and won this in 2023. In his last five appearances for the fall Darlington race, Larson has a 4.2 average finish.

William Byron (+500) has been as equally impressive as his teammate Kyle Larson has. And, he’s also sitting in the front row of the standings coming into the Playoffs. The regular season champion finished 2^nd in Darlington this spring, but he crashed out of this race last year. However, Byron has five Top 8 results in the last six Darlington races. For his career, Byron also has a Darlington win just like Larson.

Ryan Blaney (+600) comes into this weekend’s race with a ton of momentum. He’s been heating up as we approached the Playoffs with a number of Top 10 finishes over the last few months. Additionally, he won the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona last weekend.

Blaney was 5^th in the spring Darlington race but crashed out of the two prior events at this venue. He does have three Top 10s in the last five races at this track, but hasn’t won a Cup race here. Of the favorites, I’m fading Blaney’s chances of winning.

Denny Hamlin (+600) is definitely one of the drivers to consider betting on this weekend. He leads the field with an impressive 7.9 average finish and also has five wins at this track which is the best among the field. The #11 car was in victory lane for the spring Darlington race this year, as well.

Hamlin has three consecutive Top 7 finishes and has never scored a DNF in 26 Cup Series starts at Darlington. If there’s anyone that has impressed the Lady in Black, it has to be Hamlin.

The #11 car is the man to beat in my opinion.

Tyler Reddick (+700) has a lot of work to do, in order to move above the cutoff line to the next round. Darlington is a track where he could find some success at.

Reddick has four Top 5s, six Top 10s, and a 12.3 average finish in 12 starts. He has three Top 10s in the last four races here, and has led laps in all of them. In fact, he has four Top 4s in the last seven races here.

The #45 car was 10^th in this race last year, 2^nd in 2023, and third in 2022. That’s a 5.0 average finish in his last three Southern 500s. Don’t overlook the 23XI driver this Sunday.

The Best Cook Out Southern 500 Betting Value

The following Cup Series drivers offer betting value for Sunday’s race based on their current odds, season to date, and previous success at Darlington Raceway:

Joey Logano (+1600) is a three-time Cup Series champ who’s aiming to defend his title this postseason. Last year, he turned it on in the Playoffs to win his third championship. Although Logano hasn’t been as impressive this regular season compared to recent years, he’s a big-time driver with some previous success at Darlington.

Logano has one win, six Top 5s, 11 Top 10s, and a 13.3 average finish in 23 starts at this venue. He has a 7.0 average finish in his last five Southern 500s. There’s value with Logano Top 5 (+275) and Top 10 odds (-125). Plus, he has outside shot at winning the race.

Ross Chastain (+2000) offers solid value, as well. He has a 7.0 average finish over his last four Darlington races, which includes two fifth-place results in the last two Southern 500s. I love his Top 10 odds of +125 and think he’s a good candidate for that prop bet.

The Top Cook Out Southern 500 Longshot

Austin Dillon (+15000) is my longshot bet to win this race. However, I prefer his longish Top 10 odds (+600). In 18 Darlington starts, Dillon has five Top 10s and a 15.6 average finish. In his last five Southern 500s, Dillon has a 10.8 average finish. So, he’s right on the cusp of the Top 10 mark. Plus, he’s sitting below the cutoff line for the Playoffs and needs a strong result this weekend.

Cook Out Southern 500 Predictions

I see this race coming down to Hamlin, Larson, Byron, Logano and Reddick. So, let’s start dwindling this down. We can bump Reddick from the list as he has yet to win this season.

Furthermore, Logano should finish in the Top 10 but I like his chances of winning the least of the remaining four.

From there, it’s a battle between Hendrick teammates (Larson, Byron) and Hamlin. Now, Hamlin already won this spring, so I find it hard to bet on the season sweep. It’s possibly, but I just don’t see it happening.

Byron won a few weeks ago and Larson has not won in a handful of months. I think the #5 car starts the Playoffs with a huge win that boosts the team’s confidence and momentum.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+500)

Cook Out Southern 500 Top 5 Finish

• Kyle Larson (-110)
• William Byron (-110)
• Ryan Blaney (+100)
• Denny Hamlin (+100)
• Tyler Reddick (+125)
• Chase Briscoe (+220)
• Christopher Bell (+220)

I believe Denny Hamlin is the best Darlington driver in the Cup Series. His five wins and 7.9 average finish certainly testify to that statement. However, he also has 14 Top 5s in 26 starts at this venue including two in the last three races here.

In fact, Hamlin has a 3.0 average finish in the last three Darlington races. If we look at his last 12 Darlington races, Hamlin has three wins, seven Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and an 8.0 average finish.

He’s easily the best driver to bet on for a Top 5 finish, and a race win as well.

Bet: Denny Hamlin (+100)

NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks This Week

• Race: Pacific Automation 147
• Race #: 25th of the season
• Date: August 30
• Where: Portland International Raceway

The Xfinity Series has two regular season races left before their Playoffs begin. Unlike the Cup Series and Truck Series, Xfinity will be in Portland this weekend instead of Darlington. And, the Portland track is a road course event, which we all know what that means.

Connor Zilisch is the odds-on favorite to win this weekend as he is the best road-course driver in the Xfinity Series. And, with Shane van Gisbergen locked into the Cup Series Playoffs, there’s no way that he risks driving in this Xfinity race.

Furthermore, the wounded but healing Zilisch sits at the top of the betting boards for the 2025 Xfinity Series Championship.

And, if that weren’t enough to get you pumped for this road race, we still have the intense family feud between cousins Harrison and Jeb Burton who are both fighting for the 12^th and final Playoff spot.

Will Zilisch win this race as expected? Can a driver below the cutoff line get their first win of the season? Will the feuding cousins play a role in the outcome of this race?

Pacific Automation 147 Odds

• Connor Zilisch (-150)
• Sam Mayer (+650)
• Justin Allgaier (+750)
• Sheldon Creed (+1100)
• Austin Hill (+1100)
• Sammy Smith (+1600)
• Will Brown (+1600)
• Taylor Gray (+2500)
• Jesse Love (+2500)
• Nicholas Sanchez (+2500)
• Carson Kvapil (+3500)
• Brandon Jones (+10000)
• Harrison Burton (+10000)
• Jeb Burton (+20000)

Pacific Automation 147 Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Pacific Automation 147on Saturday:

Connor Zilisch (-150) is easily the man to beat this weekend. And, without SVG, he’s the outright best road course driver. Zilisch is on an amazing streak over the last few months. He has 12 consecutive Top 5s and has won five of the last six races. Zilich has won three road races on the season as well.

Sam Mayer (+650) has just one Top 5 in three starts at this track and finished 28^th last year despite starting on the pole. However, he’s on a roll this season with four consecutive Top 5s that includes a win at Iowa and a runner up at Watkins Glen. He also has two more Top 8s in road races this season.

Justin Allgaier (+750) has three Top 5s in his three Portland appearances with a 3.0 average finish. He was runner up in the last two races at this track. Allgaier was 6^th in the last two road races and aims to upstage his teammate for the checkered flag on Saturday night.

The Best Pacific Automation 147 Betting Value

The following Xfinity Series drivers offer betting value for Saturday’s race based on their current odds, season to date, and previous success at Portland International Speedway:

Sheldon Creed (+1100) had a 10.0 average finish in the last two Portland races. I see his value coming from solid results in the previous road races this season. He was 3^rd at Chicago and in the Top 12 for all of the other road races except for a crash at Watkins Glen.

Where I like his value the most, is with a +150 line to finish in the Top 5. It’s a bit of a stretch, but he’s right on the cusp.

Austin Hill (+1100) offers the best value for this weekend’s race as he has two Top 5s in three Portland starts along with an impressive 6.3 average finish.

What I also really like about Hill for Saturday’s race is the fact that he’s the best road course driver that nobody talks about because of his superspeedway reputation.

Hill has four Top 5s and a 12^th in the previous five road races this season so far. He was 4^th in Watkins Glen just two weeks ago. I think Hill will be one of the drivers to challenge Zilisch this weekend.

The Top Pacific Automation 147 Longshot

Harrison Burton (+10000) is my longshot driver for this weekend. Burton is hanging on to the final Playoff spot for the Xfinity Series and needs a strong result this weekend, as well.

He has just one DNF on the season and it came in the first road race at COTA where he suffered a broken axle. Since then, he scored a 9^th at Mexico, 13^th at Chicago, 21^st at Sonoma, and 10^th at Watkins Glen. This puts him right at a Top 10 finish for the Portland road race this weekend.

Pacific Automation 147 Predictions

You are crazy to bet on anyone other than Zilisch to win this race. With five victories in the last six races, 12 Top 5s in a row, and three road course wins already this season, the young phenom driver is the man to beat on Saturday. And, I don’t see anyone accomplishing that feat unless his broken collarbone makes it hard to compete of forces a relief driver to take over like last weekend.

Bet: Connor Zilisch (-150)

Pacific Automation 147 Top 5 Finish

• Connor Zilisch (-1600)
• Sam Mayer (-120)
• Justin Allgaier (+110)
• Sheldon Creed (+150)
• Austin Hill (+150)
• Sammy Smith (+225)
• Will Brown (+225)

Justin Allgaier is a solid option for this prop bet, but I like Austin Hill’s value and success. It’s the perfect marriage to bet on for Saturday’s race.

Hill has two Top 5s in three Portland starts and a 6.3 average finish. He also has four Top 5s and a 12th in the previous five road races to date.

Bet: Austin Hill (+150)

NASCAR Truck Series Picks This Week

• Race: Sober or Slammer 200
• Race #: 19^th of the season
• Date: August 30
• Where: Darlington Raceway

The Truck Series Playoffs begin this weekend, and Corey Heim is the odds-on favorite to not only win this race but to also win the 2025 Craftsman Truck Series Championship.

Heim absolutely dominated the field during the regular season as he led in every major statistical category on his way to the regular season title and seven victories so far.

Can Heim win the opening Playoff race at Darlington? Will Majeski get his first Truck Series win of the season? Will a Playoff driver win and move on to the next round? Will there be a non-Playoff driver in victory lane?

Sober or Slammer 200 Odds

• Corey Heim (+137)
• Layne Riggs (+400)
• Chandler Smith (+700)
• Kaden Honeycutt (+800)
• Grant Enfinger (+1200)
• Ty Majeski (+1400)
• Daniel Hemric (+1600)
• Raja Caruth (+600)
• Trevor Bayne (+2000)
• Tyler Ankrum (+2200)
• Ben Rhodes (+2500)

Sober or Slammer 200 Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Sober or Slammer 200 on Saturday:

Corey Heim (+137) is the pre-race favorite, and rightfully so. He dominated the regular season and is the best driver in the Truck Series this year. However, he hasn’t had a lot of success at Darlington in his career. In four starts, Heim has just one Top 10. He also has two DNFs which includes last year’s race.

Layne Riggs (+400) has been on fire the last month or so and comes into the Playoffs as a driver not afraid of Heim or anyone else. He’s certainly proved that during the regular season with his late-race shenanigans. As for Darlington, Riggs has one appearance here and he finished 21^st last year.

Chandler Smith (+700) is in the same boat as Riggs and Heim. Drivers that are the pre-race favorites, but who have not had much success at Darlington in the past. In four starts at this track, Smith has just one Top 10, which came in 2021. This is his first Truck race at this venue since 2022.

Sober or Slammer 200 Betting Value

The following Truck Series drivers offer betting value for Saturday’s race based on their current odds, season to date, and previous success at Darlington Raceway:

Grant Enfinger (+1200) is my top value play this weekend. In six Darlington starts, Enfinger has three Top 5s, four Top 10s, and an 8.0 average finish. These are the best averages for any Truck Series Playoff driver. He just hasn’t won at this track before. Will that change this weekend?

Ty Majeski (+1400) needs a big win or a Top 3 finish to establish himself in the Playoff race. The reigning Truck Series champ has not won a race this season and looks lucky to be in the Postseason. At Darlington, he has two Top 5s in four starts. He was 5^th in this race last year.

Sober or Slammer 200 Longshot

Ben Rhodes (+2500) is my top longshot pick. Rhodes failed to make the Playoffs which was a huge disappointment for this team. However, he can still find some success this season by picking up a few wins before the year is over.

At Darlington, Rhodes has one win, three Top 5s, and Three Top 10s in six starts. He also has finished all six races. While his win came in 2020, Rhodes did finish third in this race last year. A Top 5 finish would net you +300 odds, which might be more appropriate of a wager.

Sober or Slammer 200 Predictions

It’s Playoff time, so you know what that means. In other words, it’s “Heim Time.” I’ve learned this season that when in doubt, pick Heim.

Considering the momentum that a victory can establish in the first Playoff race, I think Heim is going to win. Unless someone like Riggs or Enfinger can pull off the upset, Heim is on a mission. And, that mission is a Truck Series Championship.

Bet: Corey Heim (+137)

Sober or Slammer 200 Top 5

• Corey Heim (-600)
• Layne Riggs (-160)
• Chandler Smith (+110)
• Kaden Honeycutt (+130)
• Grant Enfinger (+180)
• Ty Majeski (+220)
• Daniel Hemric (+250)

Other than Heim, the only driver that I feel comfortable with betting on a Top 5 finish is Grant Enfinger. He has three Top 5s in six Darlington starts, which is a 50% Top 5 finishing rate. He’s also led laps in two of the last three Darlington races, with a third being his high-mark in 2022.

There’s still a risk here, considering Darlington is the track that’s too tough to tame. So, go with a small unit on the #9 truck.

Bet: Grant Enfinger (+180)

Favorite NASCAR Picks Of The Week

With all of the racing action going on this weekend, and the plethora of NASCAR picks to choose from, I want to highlight some wagers that are my favorite NASCAR picks of the week. Here are my three favorites for Labor Day Weekend:

Denny Hamlin To Finish in Top 5 For The Cook Out Southern 500

Denny Hamlin owns the Cup Series when it comes to racing at Darlington. He has the most wins, Top 5s, Top 10s and best average finish at The Lady In Black. Hamlin won at Darlington in the spring and could certainly sweep the Cup races at this venue. However, I like his chances of a Top 5 finish even more than a race win. This gives us a buffer just in case another driver rises up to take the checkered flag.

Connor Zilisch As The Pacific Automation 147 Winner

Connor Zilisch has absolutely dominated the Xfinity Series over the last few months. In particular, he’s won five of the last six races this season and has 12 straight Top 5s. Zilisch leads the field with seven victories. Three of those wins have come in road races. This weekend’s Portland event is a road race. Only Shane Van Gisbergen has been able to stop Zilisch from winning at road courses once his momentum started.

SVG will not be racing this weekend as he locked into the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. So, this Portland race is Zilisch’s to lose. As long as he is physically capable of competing for the entire race, then he’s going to win.

Corey Heim To Win The Craftsman Truck Series Championship

This wasn’t on the docket above, but if you follow all of my NASCAR coverage at ScoresAndStats, you will see the updated Truck Series Championship odds and predictions. With that said, I started off the season picking Heim to win the Championship and I have double down on that prediction.

The reality is, Heim has dominated the Truck Series this year after winning seven of the 18 regular season races. There’s no reason to think he won’t smash the field in the Playoffs, as well. Surprisingly, Heim’s -140 odds to win the Championship still offers some betting value considering his success this year.