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NASCAR Picks This Week move to Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Bank of America 400 on Sunday, October 11. The Cup Series returns to Charlotte’s 1.5-mile oval for the fall race for the first time since 2017, making recent Kansas, Las Vegas and Coca-Cola 600 performance much more useful than old Charlotte Roval results.
Chase Briscoe enters with the strongest momentum after winning at Las Vegas, sweeping both stages and leading 175 laps. He also pushed Kyle Larson late at Kansas one week earlier. That combination makes Briscoe the early ScoresAndStats outright pick, but only at +700 or better.
Tyler Reddick is the preferred finishing-position value. He led a race-high 119 laps at Charlotte in May, finished fourth, then placed third at Las Vegas. A current top-five price around +155 provides a more forgiving path than requiring him to win outright.
NASCAR Picks This Week: Quick Betting Card
- Best outright pick: Chase Briscoe at +700 or better.
- Best top-five bet: Tyler Reddick at +150 or better.
- Favorite to watch: Kyle Larson at +400 or better.
- Strong contender: Christopher Bell at +600 or better.
- Hamlin buy point: +550 or better.
- Race: Bank of America 400.
- Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026.
- Start time: 3:00 p.m. ET.
- Track: Charlotte Motor Speedway.
- Track type: 1.5-mile intermediate oval.
- TV: USA Network.
Bank of America 400 Odds for October 11
Odds last checked: October 6, 2026. Prices can change.
A complete outright winner board was not consistently available across the markets checked on October 6, so the outright recommendations in this article use playable price thresholds rather than presenting an unverified winner line as current.
Finishing-position markets are already appearing. The current top-five board puts Larson and Briscoe at the shortest prices, with Reddick offering the largest payout among the six leading contenders.
| Driver | Observed Top-5 Odds | ScoresAndStats View |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +100 | Strong, but short |
| Chase Briscoe | +105 | High-confidence contender |
| Denny Hamlin | +115 | Bounce-back candidate |
| Christopher Bell | +115 | Charlotte strength |
| Tyler Reddick | +155 | Best top-five value |
| Ryan Blaney | +170 | Secondary value |
Reddick at +155 needs to finish inside the top five roughly 39.2 percent of the time to break even before sportsbook margin. That is a much easier case to defend than an outright price because his Charlotte and recent intermediate results show sustained front-running speed even when he has not converted it into wins.
Best NASCAR Pick: Chase Briscoe at +700 or Better
Briscoe is the early ScoresAndStats pick to win the Bank of America 400 if an outright price of +700 or better is available.
The recommendation is not based only on the Las Vegas victory. Briscoe has now shown race-winning speed across the entire three-race stretch of 1.5-mile tracks.
At Kansas, he started 23rd, drove through the field, led 23 laps and passed Larson for the lead late before Larson retook the position with seven laps remaining. Briscoe finished fourth.
One week later at Las Vegas, there was no late fade. Briscoe swept both stages, led 175 of 267 laps and beat Larson by 1.376 seconds. NASCAR now credits both of Briscoe’s 2026 victories to 1.5-mile tracks.
Charlotte adds another useful data point. Briscoe led 34 laps in the Coca-Cola 600 in May and finished second in Stage 1 before eventually exiting the race and being scored 34th. The finishing position hides how competitive the No. 19 Toyota was before the problem.
A +700 price implies a 12.5 percent break-even probability. Briscoe has shown enough speed at three consecutive relevant tracks to justify that threshold.
SAS Pick: Chase Briscoe to win at +700 or better.
Main risk: The market is likely to shorten Briscoe aggressively after Las Vegas. If bettors are asked to take +500 or shorter, much of the value created by his recent form disappears.
Best Charlotte Top-5 Pick: Tyler Reddick +155
Reddick is the strongest current finishing-position play at +155 or better for a top-five result.
The May Coca-Cola 600 is the most direct piece of evidence available because it was held on the same Charlotte oval. Reddick started from the pole, led a race-high 119 laps and finished fourth.
His recent form supports that track-specific result. Reddick finished third at Las Vegas after running near the front throughout the final stage. That follows another stretch of competitive intermediate-track speed from the No. 45 team.
The top-five market also protects bettors from the biggest weakness in an outright wager. Reddick does not need to convert every fast car into a victory. He only needs another afternoon similar to Charlotte in May or Las Vegas last week.
ScoresAndStats Top-5 Pick: Tyler Reddick +150 or better.
Main risk: Charlotte's surface can change considerably over a long green-flag run, and a competitive car can still lose track position through pit strategy or cautions.
Why Kyle Larson Is Still the Driver to Beat
Larson enters Charlotte as the championship leader and the most consistent driver of the Chase.
He dominated Kansas, leading 235 laps and winning both stages. At Las Vegas, an ill-handling car and a 26-second pit stop dropped him a lap down early, yet he recovered to finish second.
That ability to turn a bad race into a runner-up result may be more important to the championship than another dominant victory.
Larson also showed speed at Charlotte in May. He won Stage 1 after starting 18th and eventually finished fifth.
The question is price. An outright at +400 implies a 20 percent break-even probability. That is already demanding in a 39-car field, even for the driver producing the best Chase results.
Larson Betting View: Playable at +400 or better. Below approximately +350, the outright price becomes difficult to defend despite the excellent form.
Christopher Bell Is a Charlotte Threat at the Right Price
Bell’s 23rd-place Las Vegas finish is much worse than the speed he showed before a power-steering problem disrupted the race.
Charlotte provides a strong rebound spot. Bell finished second in the Coca-Cola 600 earlier this season, led 44 laps and won Stage 3. He also won the Charlotte Cup race in 2024.
Joe Gibbs Racing was strong across the organization in May. Bell, Hamlin, Briscoe and Ty Gibbs all led laps, and Bell was fighting for the victory before Daniel Suárez took control late.
Bell therefore should not be downgraded solely because of Las Vegas. The better question is whether the market gives bettors enough compensation for the mechanical-risk result.
Bell Betting View: Strong outright option at +600 or better. At a shorter price, Briscoe's current intermediate form becomes more attractive.
Denny Hamlin Needs a Charlotte Rebound
Hamlin was the primary ScoresAndStats pick at Las Vegas and entered with one of the strongest track-history profiles in the field. A Stage 1 spin changed the race, and he eventually finished 16th.
The result increased Hamlin’s championship deficit from 26 to 40 points behind Larson.
Charlotte offers a legitimate rebound opportunity. Hamlin finished third in the Coca-Cola 600 in May and led 75 laps. He also owns a Charlotte victory in the Next Gen car from the 2022 Coca-Cola 600 and finished fourth the last time NASCAR held the fall event on the oval in 2017.
His season-long intermediate record remains strong enough that one Las Vegas spin should not erase the underlying case.
Hamlin Betting View: Consider an outright only at +550 or better. At a similar or shorter price than Briscoe, the current form favors Briscoe.
What the 2026 Coca-Cola 600 Tells Us About Charlotte
The May race gives bettors far more relevant information than recent fall Charlotte results because the Bank of America 400 is returning from the Roval to the oval.
| Finish | Driver | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Suárez | 17 |
| 2 | Christopher Bell | 44 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 75 |
| 4 | Tyler Reddick | 119 |
| 5 | Kyle Larson | 14 |
The finishing order alone understates the Joe Gibbs Racing performance. Briscoe also led 34 laps before eventually being knocked out of the race, while Ty Gibbs led 17.
Reddick’s 119 laps led are especially important for betting purposes. Suárez won after a late strategy sequence and weather shortened the event to 373 laps, while Reddick spent more of the evening controlling the race.
Kansas and Las Vegas Form Matters More Than the Charlotte Roval
Charlotte completes a stretch of three consecutive 1.5-mile intermediate tracks. That gives bettors unusually fresh comparable data.
| Race | Winner | Other Key Results |
|---|---|---|
| Charlotte, May 24 | Daniel Suárez | Bell 2nd, Hamlin 3rd, Reddick 4th, Larson 5th |
| Kansas, Sep. 27 | Kyle Larson | Cindric 2nd, Hamlin 3rd, Briscoe 4th, Blaney 5th |
| Las Vegas, Oct. 4 | Chase Briscoe | Larson 2nd, Reddick 3rd, Cindric 4th, Blaney 5th |
Briscoe and Larson are the only drivers to have seriously contended for the win in both Kansas and Las Vegas. Reddick and Team Penske have also produced repeated top-five speed.
That is more useful than looking at Shane van Gisbergen’s 2025 Roval win or Larson’s 2024 Roval victory. Those races used a fundamentally different layout with left and right turns.
Bettors who want to compare the different layouts can use the NASCAR track types guide.
How Last Week’s NASCAR Picks Finished
The Las Vegas card produced one major win for the weekly picks. Briscoe was the ScoresAndStats value selection at +800 and delivered the outright victory.
| Las Vegas Position | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin Outright | +400 | Lost, finished 16th |
| Chase Briscoe Value Pick | +800 | Won |
| Kyle Larson Favorite | +350 | Finished second |
Briscoe winning does not mean bettors should automatically follow him at any Charlotte price. The +800 Las Vegas wager had an 11.1 percent implied break-even probability. A heavily shortened Charlotte number changes the value calculation even if the driver remains just as competitive.
The complete Las Vegas finishing order and updated results are available on the NASCAR race results page.
NASCAR Chase Standings Before Charlotte
Larson has built the largest advantage of the Chase. His Las Vegas runner-up extended the lead to 40 points over Hamlin with five races remaining.
| Rank | Driver | Gap to Larson |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | Leader |
| 2 | Denny Hamlin | -40 |
| 3 | Christopher Bell | -55 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | -71 |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | -80 |
| 6 | Chase Briscoe | -84 |
| 7 | Tyler Reddick | -106 |
| 8 | Ty Gibbs | -110 |
The 2026 Chase does not use elimination rounds. All 16 qualified drivers continue accumulating points through the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, so Charlotte stage points matter just as much as the final position.
The broader title market is tracked in the NASCAR championship odds and predictions.
Bank of America 400 Race Information
Thirty-nine cars are entered for the sixth of 10 Chase races. Charlotte is the third consecutive 1.5-mile intermediate track after Kansas and Las Vegas.
| Race Detail | Bank of America 400 |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Start Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| Track | Charlotte Motor Speedway |
| Track Length | 1.5 miles |
| Distance | 267 laps / 400.5 miles |
| Turn Banking | 24 degrees |
| Chase Race | 6 of 10 |
| TV | USA Network |
| Streaming | HBO Max |
What to Watch Before Betting Charlotte
Practice speed: Charlotte’s aged surface and multiple grooves can reward cars that maintain speed over longer runs. Five-lap and 10-lap averages are more useful than reacting only to one qualifying lap.
Briscoe’s price: His Las Vegas win guarantees additional public attention. The driver can remain the best prediction while becoming a poor wager if the market cuts the number too far.
Reddick’s long-run pace: He led more laps than anyone in the May Charlotte race. If the No. 45 again shows top-five practice speed, the current +155 top-five number becomes easier to defend.
Bell and Hamlin: Both had strong Charlotte cars in May and both need points after losing ground to Larson at Las Vegas. Their practice pace will determine whether their bounce-back cases justify an outright bet.
Weather and strategy: The May race ended early because of weather, and late cautions can create two-tire or fuel decisions that overpower raw speed. Outright bettors should expect more variance than the recent intermediate results alone suggest.
For more detail on outright winners, top-five bets and head-to-head markets, use the NASCAR betting guide.
Final Bank of America 400 Predictions
| Category | ScoresAndStats Pick | Betting Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Best Outright | Chase Briscoe | +700 or better |
| Best Top-5 Bet | Tyler Reddick | +150 or better |
| Favorite | Kyle Larson | +400 or better |
| Strong Contender | Christopher Bell | +600 or better |
| Bounce-Back Candidate | Denny Hamlin | +550 or better |
Briscoe gets the outright recommendation because his intermediate-track form is no longer based on one strong run. He nearly won Kansas, dominated Las Vegas and showed front-running speed at Charlotte earlier this season.
Reddick is the better current price-based wager. His +155 top-five market combines a meaningful payout with the strongest lap-led number from Charlotte’s May race and another podium result at Las Vegas.
Larson remains the driver most likely to punish anyone fading him, but the outright requires discipline. NASCAR fields are too deep to automatically accept a short number simply because the No. 5 team has been the most consistent car of the Chase.
NASCAR Picks This Week FAQs
What is the best NASCAR pick this week?
Chase Briscoe is the early ScoresAndStats outright pick for the Bank of America 400 at a target price of +700 or better. He nearly won at Kansas before dominating Las Vegas with 175 laps led and victories in both stages.
What is the best top-five bet for the Bank of America 400?
Tyler Reddick top five at +150 or better is the preferred finishing-position wager. Reddick led a race-high 119 laps and finished fourth at Charlotte in May, then finished third at Las Vegas on October 4.
When is the Bank of America 400 at Charlotte?
The Bank of America 400 is scheduled for Sunday, October 11, 2026 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The Cup Series race begins at 3:00 p.m. ET and is scheduled for 267 laps and 400.5 miles.
Is the 2026 Bank of America 400 on the Charlotte Roval?
No. The 2026 fall Charlotte race returns to the 1.5-mile oval for the first time since 2017. The fall event used the Roval configuration from 2018 through 2025.
Who won the last NASCAR Cup Series race?
Chase Briscoe won the South Point 400 at Las Vegas on October 4. He swept both stages, led 175 of 267 laps and beat Kyle Larson by 1.376 seconds.
Who leads the NASCAR Chase before Charlotte?
Kyle Larson leads the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase entering Charlotte. Denny Hamlin is second, 40 points behind, while Christopher Bell is third at 55 points back.