NASCAR Picks This Week: Cup, Xfinity, and Truck Series Talladega Races

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NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge

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This weekend, all three of NASCAR’s top circuits will head to the fast track of Talladega Superspeedway for some thrilling Playoff races.

After two weeks off, the Craftsman Truck Series returns to action for their 23rd race of the season. The Love’s RV Stop 225 marks the beginning of the third round of the Playoffs. The race begins at 4pm on Friday, October 17. You can watch the race in its entirety on FOX.

The Xfinity Series will race in its normal Saturday slot as the United Rentals 250 begins at 5pm ET live on The CW. This is the second race in the Round of 8 and no driver has yet to clinch a spot in the Round of 4.  

The Cup Series will close out the crazy Talladega weekend with the YellaWood 500 on Sunday, October 19. This race will begin at 3pm ET and air live on USA Network. HBO MAX subscribers can also stream this event.

If you miss any of this weekend’s races at Talladega Superspeedway, we’ve got you covered with our weekly NASCAR results.

So, without any further delay, pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this week. Feel free to use any of these for your NASCAR bets this weekend and don’t forget to check out our best handicappers.

NASCAR Picks Today

NASCAR BetsFavoritesPredictions
YellaWood 500 WinnerJoey Logano (+1000) Ryan Blaney (+1000)
YellaWood 500 Top 5 Austin Cindric (+200) William Byron (+200)
YellaWood 500 Top 10 Austin Cindric (-175) Denny Hamlin (+130)
United Rentals 250 Winner Austin Hill (+400) Jesse Love (+500)
Love’s RV Stop 225 Winner Corey Heim (+800) Grant Enfinger (+800)

NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week

  • Race: YellaWood 500
  • Race #: 34th of the season
  • Date: October 19
  • Where: Talladega Superspeedway

The Cup Series enters the second race for the Round of 8 and Denny Hamlin has already advanced to the Championship Race. After Martinsville Speedway on October 26, four drivers will be eliminated and we’ll be down to the final four competitors for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

Team Penske comes into this race with all three drivers at the top of the betting boards as Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are tied as the odds-on favorites. Their teammate Austin Cindric is right behind them with the sportsbooks.

Which Playoff driver will win the checkered flag at Talladega? Will Team Penske win as expected? Will we see another Playoff driver advance to the Championship Race?

YellaWood 500 Odds

  • Joey Logano (+1000)
  • Ryan Blaney (+1000)
  • Austin Cindric (+1200)
  • William Byron (+1200)
  • Chase Elliott (+1400)
  • Brad Keselowski (+1600)
  • Kyle Busch (+1800)
  • Chris Buescher (+2000)
  • Bubba Wallace (+2200)
  • Christopher Bell (+2200)
  • Denny Hamlin (+2200)
  • Kyle Larson (+2200)
  • Alex Bowman (+2500)
  • Chase Briscoe (+2500)
  • Ryan Preece (+2500)
  • Carson Hocevar (+2800)
  • Daniel Suarez (+2800)
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2800)

YellaWood 500 Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Bank of America 400 on Sunday:

Joey Logano (+1000) sits 7th in the Playoff standings and is 24 points below the cutoff line heading into the weekend. The reigning Cup Series champ needs a strong run this weekend and it’s quite possible. He does have three wins at Talladega, which is tied for the second most. However, he hasn’t won here since 2018.

Ryan Blaney (+1000) is also tied with Logano for three wins. However, he won this race in 2023 and 2019. Additionally, he was runner up in the 2022 edition of this race. In the last 12 Talladega races, Blaney has three wins, five Top 2s, and six Top 10s.

Austin Cindric (+1200) won the spring Talladega race and has three Top 10s in seven starts at this venue. He led 29 laps in this race last year, but crashed out. Cindric should be right up there with his Penske teammates and could be a sneaky bet to win again.

William Byron (+1200) is one of the best Cup Series drivers to have not won at Talladega. He’s going to need one of his high finishes to pick up some ground in the standings. Currently, Byron sits 15 points below the cutoff line.

Byron has seven consecutive Top 15 finishes, which includes five consecutive Top 7s. He’s scored two straight 3rds at Talladega and three Top 3s in the last four events at this venue.

Chase Elliott (+1400) has had more success at Talladega than Byron has. The no.9 car has won twice at this track including the 2022 edition of this race. He has six Top 15s in the last seven races at Talladega and was 5th in the spring event this year.

Brad Keselowski (+1600) has the most wins at Talladega among active full time Cup Series drivers. Keselowski has six wins in 33 starts but hasn’t won at this track since 2021. However, in the YellaWood 500, Keselowski was runner up here last year and in 2021. So, if he can survive the big one at the end of the race, then we could see Keselowski competing for the win.

YellaWood 500 Betting Value

The following Cup Series drivers offer betting value for Sunday’s race based on their current odds, season to date, and previous success at Talladega Superspeedway:

Bubba Wallace (+2200) was eliminated from the Playoffs already but he could provide some value for this weekend’s Talladega race. Wallace does have one win at this venue and he has two consecutive Top 10s. His Top 10 odds of +120 are where we are leaning for betting value.

Chase Briscoe (+2500) finished 15th in the spring but he led 20 laps at this track. Briscoe has seven straight Top 14 finishes and won at Darlington to start the Playoffs. He was 4th at Vegas last weekend, which was his second Top 4 in the last three races and his 4th in the last seven.

Briscoe is 15 points above the cutoff line and needs a strong showing. +140 odds to finish in the Top 10 sound like solid betting value to us.

The Top YellaWood 500 Longshot

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2800) is our longshot bet to win this race considering he won it last year. Additionally, he has a 5.4 average finish over the last three races at this venue. Additionally, Stenhouse has a 14.4 average finish at Talladega, which is the third best among full time Cup Series drivers. With no pressure to win, Stenhouse is someone to consider.

YellaWood 500 Predictions

Talladega and Daytona are the toughest places to predict a winner due to the big wrecks that plague the end of races. With that said, I like Blaney, Cindric, Elliott, Hamlin, and Byron this weekend.

Of those five drivers, I am taking Blaney. He’s due for a strong showing at Talladega after crashing out of the last two races at this venue. He last won this race in 2023, and is more than capable of winning it this weekend, as well.

Bet: Ryan Blaney (+1000)

YellaWood 500 Top 5

  • Austin Cindric (+200)
  • Joey Logano (+200)
  • Ryan Blaney (+200)
  • William Byron (+200)
  • Chase Elliott (+275)
  • Brad Keselowski (+300)
  • Kyle Larson (+300)
  • Bubba Wallace (+325)
  • Kyle Busch (+325)
  • Denny Hamlin (+375)
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+375)
  • Chase Briscoe (+400

Although he’s never won at this track in the Cup Series, William Byron is my pick for the best Top 5 bet. He has five Top 7s in the last five races and a 4.5 average finish over that span. Byron was third in this spring’s Talladega race, third in the 2024 YellaWood 500, and runner up in 2023 for this race. Ryan Blaney is another solid option for this prop bet, as well.

Bet: William Byron (+200)

YellaWood 500 Top 10

  • Austin Cindric (-175)
  • Joey Logano (-175)
  • Ryan Blaney (-175)
  • William Byron (-175)
  • Chase Elliott (-165)
  • Brad Keselowski (EVEN)
  • Kyle Larson (EVEN)
  • Bubba Wallace (+120)
  • Kyle Busch (+120)
  • Denny Hamlin (+130)
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+130)
  • Chase Briscoe (+140)

Denny Hamlin has the least amount of pressure coming into this race. He’s already advanced to the Championship Race, got his 60th career win last weekend, and is a two-time winner at Talladega.

He’s my pick for the best Top 10 bet at +130 odds. Over the last 12 Talladega races, Hamlin has one win, five Top 5s, and seven Top 10s. He has six consecutive Top 10s in the Yellawood 500 including winning this race in 2020.

Bet: Denny Hamlin (+130)

NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks This Week

  • Race: United Rentals 250
  • Race #: 30th of the season
  • Date: October 18
  • Where: Talladega Superspeedway

The Xfinity Series heads into its second race for the Round of 8 and nobody has advanced to the Championship Race as of yet. The opening event of this round saw Aric Almirola steal a victory from the postseason drivers. It was his second win in the last four races.

Almirola will be competing in this weekend’s race, as well. However, RCR drivers Austin Hill and Jesse Love are the two drivers to keep an eye on as they’ve excelled at the superspeedways.

While Connor Zilisch remains the 2025 Xfinity Series Championship favorite, he’s going to face stiff competition from RCR’s dynamic duo.  

Will we see another surprise Playoff winner? Can Zilisch win his 11th race of the season? Will any Playoff driver advance to the Final Four?

United Rentals 250 Odds

  • Austin Hill (+400)
  • Connor Zilisch (+500)
  • Jesse Love (+500)
  • Justin Allgaier (+1100)
  • Sammy Smith (+1200)
  • Aric Almirola (+1600)
  • Nick Sanchez (+1600)
  • Sam Mayer (+1600)
  • Carson Kvapil (+1800)
  • Ryan Sieg (+1800)
  • Sheldon Creed (+1800)
  • Jeb Burton (+2200)

United Rentals 250 Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the United Rentals 250 on Saturday:

Austin Hill (+400) is arguably the best speedway driver in the Xfinity Series. He won the Talladega race this year, won at Daytona last year, and has won at Atlanta several times. Unfortunately for Hill, he’s already been eliminated from the Playoffs and he only has one Top 10 at Talladega in seven starts.

Connor Zilisch (+500) is rewriting the history books for the Xfinity Series. However, Talladega has not been kind to this generational talent. His lone appearance at this venue came this spring where he finished 27th.

He was also 27th at Daytona to start the season, but did win at Daytona in the summer. So, he’s not incapable of winning on Saturday. Yet, I feel better about his chances for a Top 5 finish than a win.

Jesse Love (+500) has been stronger at Talladega than Hill and Zilisch. In three starts at this venue, Love has one win, two Top 3s, three Top 6s and a 3.3 average finish. Considering he’s only 20 points above the cutoff line, you have to like Love’s chances this weekend for a strong result.

The Best United Rentals 250 Betting Value

The following Xfinity Series drivers offer betting value for Saturday’s race based on their current odds and season to date:

Aric Almirola (+1600) has one win, one Top 5, and four Top 10s in seven starts at this track. More importantly, he’s won two of the last four Playoff races this postseason. So, you have to consider Almirola as a threat to steal another checkered flag.

Sheldon Creed (+1800) has two Top 5s and four Top 10s in six starts at Talladega. He’s posted four straight Top 9 results and was 4th in this race last year. His 9.5 average finish gives us hope that he could provide some value with a strong finish.

The Top United Rentals 250 Longshot

Jeb Burton (+2200) is someone to seriously consider this weekend. In 10 starts, he has two wins, four Top 5s, seven Top 10s, and a Series best 7.9 average finish. He was runner up at Talladega this year already, and won here in 2023 and 2021. Burton has a 4.7 average finish over the last four Talladega events.

United Rentals 250 Predictions

My Top 5 drivers are Creed, Almirola, Burton, Zilisch and Love. Of those drivers, I am going with Love. This could be his only chance to advance to the Championship Race due to his speedway talent and Zilisch’s lack of success at Talladega so far.

Love has a 3.3 average finish and a victory at Talladega in his young career. I’m going with RCR’s Love to win on Saturday.

Bet: Jesse Love (+500)

NASCAR Truck Series Picks This Week

  • Race: Love’s RV Stop 225
  • Race #: 23rd of the season
  • Date: October 17
  • Where: Talladega Superspeedway

The Truck Series returns after a two-week hiatus. This is the second race of the Round of 8 and Corey Heim has already advanced to the Championship Race by winning at the ROVAL two weeks ago. Heim also remains the large odds-on favorite to take home the 2025 Craftsman Truck Series Championship.

Since anything can happen at Talladega, the odds reflect a wide-open field. Other drivers like LaJoie, Enfinger, Hemric, Riggs, and Majeski are right there near the top of the betting boards.

Can Heim win another Playoff race? Will a non-Playoff driver upstage the Playoff field? Will we see another Playoff driver advance to the Championship Race?

Love’s RV Stop 225 Odds

  • Corey Heim (+800)
  • Corey LaJoie (+800)
  • Grant Enfinger (+800)
  • Chandler Smith (+1000)
  • Daniel Hemric (+1000)
  • Layne Riggs (+1000)
  • Ty Majeski (+1000)
  • Ben Rhodes (+1200)
  • Tyler Ankrum (+1200)
  • Kaden Honeycutt (+1400)
  • Parker Kligerman (+1400)
  • Rajah Caruth (+1400)

Love’s RV Stop 225 Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Love’s RV Stop 225:

Corey Heim (+800) is the best Truck Series driver this year and it’s not even close. However, he has just one Top 10 in three Talladega starts and that came in 2023, when he finished 5th. He’s never won here in his Truck career.

While Heim has been picking up his first career wins at various tracks all year long, Talladega is too wild to lock him in for the win. Yet, he’s still the man to beat every week.

Corey LaJoie (+800) is another favorite, but he has just one Top 5 and two Top 10s in 14 starts at this track. In fact, he has just one Top 10 in the last 10 races at this track. I would skip LaJoie this weekend.

Grant Enfinger (+800) has two wins at this track, which includes last year’s Talladega race. Currently, Enfinger sits in 7th for the Truck Playoff standings and is just four points behind. Keep an eye out for the no.9 this weekend as he could pick up his third win at Talladega.

Love’s RV Stop 225 Betting Value

The following Truck Series drivers offer betting value for Friday’s race based on their current odds, season to date, and previous success at Talladega:

Chandler Smith (+1000) has two Top 5s in four races at Talladega including a 4th last year. Although he’s not in the Playoffs, Smith can still pull off a strong finish this Friday and challenge for the checkered flag.

Ben Rhodes (+1200) provides small value as he has three Top 5s in the last five races at Talladega. In fact, he has two runner ups in the last three events at this venue.

Top Love’s RV Stop 225 Longshot

Rajah Caruth (+1400) sports an 8.0 average finish in two Talladega starts which includes a 4th in last year’s race. He sits 1 point above the cutoff line and will be looking to pull off a strong finish to position himself for advancing to the next round.

Love’s RV Stop 225 Predictions

You can go with Heim every week if you want to, and I wouldn’t fault you for that. I am going to take Enfinger to pull off the win as he’s showed more of a pension for Talladega than most of the contenders for this week’s race.

Bet: Grant Enfinger (+800) 

Favorite NASCAR Picks Of The Week

With all of the racing action going on this weekend, and the plethora of NASCAR picks to choose from, I want to highlight some wagers that are my favorite NASCAR picks of the week.

Denny Hamlin Top 10 Finish

Denny Hamlin (+130) has one win, five Top 5s, and seven Top 10s in his last 12 Talladega races. He won this race in 2020, and has put up six consecutive Top 10s in the YellaWood 500.

William Byron Top 5 Finish

William Byron (+200) has a 4.5 average finish over the last five Talladega races which includes scoring 7th or better in each race over that span. He was third in this race last year and runner up in 2023. He also finished third in this year’s spring Talladega race.