NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge

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This is the first week of the year, when all three of NASCAR’s top circuits are hosting Playoff races. And, it will all take place on the short track of Bristol Motor Speedway also known as “The Last Great Colosseum.”

The Craftsman Truck Series returns to action after a one-week hiatus. This will be the second race of the opening round. Additionally, UNOH 200 presented by Ohio Logistics will take place on Thursday, September 11, at 8pm. That’s right, the racing action begins on Thursday this week. The race will be televised on FS1.

The Xfinity Series kicks off their Playoffs this week as they compete on Friday night in the Food City 300. The event begins at 7:30pm ET and will be televised on The CW.

Last, but not least, is the Cup Series which races under the lights of Bristol on Saturday night beginning at 7:30pm ET. The Bass Pro Shops Night Race will mark the conclusion of the opening round of the Playoffs and four drivers will be eliminated while the remaining 12 cars head to the next round.

If you miss any of this weekend’s races at Bristol Motor Speedway, we’ve got you covered with our weekly NASCAR results.

So, without any further delay, pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this week. Feel free to use any of these for your NASCAR bets this weekend and don’t forget to check out our best handicappers.

NASCAR Picks Today

NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week

• Race: Bass Pro Shops Night Race
• Race #: 29th of the season
• Date: September 13
• Where: Bristol Motor Speedway

Saturday night’s race under the lights of Bristol, will be the final event in the Round of 16. That means four drivers who are below the cutoff line will be eliminated and the remaining 12 drivers will advance to the second round.

Currently, Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin have already advanced to the next round with victories over the first two postseason races. Briscoe has looked particularly strong in the Playoffs so far. Both men have also climbed up the betting boards for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

Which Playoff driver will win this race and advance? Will we see a non-Playoff driver take the checkered flag? Which four drivers will be eliminated from the Cup Series Playoffs following this Bristol race?

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Odds

• Kyle Larson (+250)
• Denny Hamlin (+400)
• Ryan Blaney (+600)
• Christopher Bell (+750)
• William Byron (+1000)
• Chase Briscoe (+1000)
• Chase Elliott (+1100)
• Ty Gibbs (+1800)
• Joey Logano (+2000)
• Ross Chastain (+2200)
• Bubba Wallace (+2200)
• Tyler Reddick (+2500)
• Chris Bueshcher (+2500)

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Enjoy Illinois 300 on Sunday:

Kyle Larson (+250) comes into this Bristol race sitting third in the Playoff standings and sporting the best average finish among the field (10.4). He’s won two races in a row at Bristol including last year’s Night Race. He also has six straight Top 5s which includes three victories. Larson is the odds-on favorite for a reason and the man to beat.

Denny Hamlin (+400) has four wins, 13 Top 5s, 20 Top 10s, and a 13.0 average finish at Bristol. Additionally, the two races that Larson hasn’t won over the last five, were won by Hamlin. The #11 car has four straight Top 4 finishes and six consecutive Top 10s, while winning three out of the last nine Bristol events.

Ryan Blaney (+600) is a favorite that I will be fading this week. While he has two Top 6s in a row at Bristol, his 17.8 average finish is the worst among the pre-race favorites and he’s never won at this track. With that said, he still should advance to the next round provided he scores a Top 20 finish.

Christopher Bell (+750) doesn’t have a win at Bristol, but he has six Top 10s in eight starts including five in a row. In the last three Night Races, Bell has a 4.0 average finish. You have to like his chances to crack the Top 5 and advance to the next round of the Playoffs.

William Byron (+1000) began the Playoffs sitting on top of the standings after winning the regular season title. Unfortunately, he has fallen to sixth in the standings.

Although he’s never won at Bristol, and has a concerning 16.4 average finish, Byron is capable of finishing in a respectable position this weekend and advancing. However, I would not take him to win this race or finish in the Top 5 as he has just two of those in 12 starts.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting Value

The following Cup Series drivers offer betting value for Sunday’s race based on their current odds, season to date, and previous success at WWTR at Gateway:

Chase Briscoe (+1000) has been stellar this postseason. He dominated at Darlington in the first Playoff race to advance to the next round. Then he finished runner up at WWTR behind his teammate Denny Hamlin last weekend. That’s two Top 2s to start the Playoffs.

He has two Top 8s in the last two Bristol races and was 8^th here in this Night Race last year. I like Briscoe’s value because he’s on a roll and could be a nice play to win or finish in the Top 5 (+125), which is giving us plus-money odds.

Chase Elliott (+1100) needs a strong finish as he sits 9^th in the standings, just 28 points above the cutoff line. That means if he finishes near the back of the field for this race, he could be eliminated.

With that said, Elliott has the second-best average finish at Bristol (11.3) and has posted a 3.6 average finish over the last three Night Races at this venue. His Top 5 odds (+140) offer some value considering his past success at this short track.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Longshot

Kyle Busch (+2800) is my longshot pick for this race. And, not necessarily because of his odds, but more so due to his lack of wins over the last two years. If you are keeping track at home, his win total is zero.

With that said, Busch leads the Cup Series with eight wins and 14 Top 5s at Bristol. Unfortunately, he hasn’t won here since 2019, and he hasn’t cracked the Top 5 since 2020. So, you see why he’s a longshot bet who might be worth a flier for a Top 5 (+350) finish.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions

Can Kyle Larson win three in a row at Bristol? I certainly will be rooting for that. He dominated at Bristol earlier this year and won this Night Race last year. He also has the best average finish among Cup drivers.

However, there’s just something about Joe Gibbs Racing drivers in this opening round of the Playoffs. They’ve already won the first two races in the Round of 16, and they have three drivers in the Playoffs who sit in the Top 6 pre-race favorites for this Bristol Night Race.

I think the checkered flag comes down to Hendrick Motorsports (Larson and Elliott) vs. JGR (Bell, Hamlin and Briscoe).

With that said, I am leaning towards Hamlin or Bell to win this race. They both have had strong results at Bristol in recent years. Hamlin has been strong in the Playoffs so far, along with Briscoe. Either driver can carry over their momentum to take the checkered flag this Saturday night.

Yet, I am going with Bell to pick up his first win in like six months and to get his first career Cup Series victory at Bristol. Like Elliott, Bell needs a strong result to improve his standing for the next round of the Playoffs.

If you want less risk, then go with Larson or Hamlin as I think the both are Top 5 drivers, as well.

Bet: Christopher Bell (+750)

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Top 5 Finish

• Kyle Larson (-310)
• Denny Hamlin (-200)
• Ryan Blaney (-125)
• Christopher Bell (Even)
• William Byron (+125)
• Chase Briscoe (+125)
• Chase Elliott (+140)
• Ty Gibbs (+225)
• Joey Logano (+250)

Yes, both Larson and Hamlin are solid options for a Top 5 finish. However, their respective odds offer zero value and too much risk for short-track racing.

The one driver who has a nice blend of on-track success and betting value, is Christopher Bell. He has six Top 10s in eight races at Bristol. More importantly, he has three consecutive Top 5s in the last three Bristol Night Races.

Bet: Christopher Bell (Even)

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Top 10 Finish

• Kyle Larson (-500)
• Denny Hamlin (-360)
• Ryan Blaney (-265)
• Chase Briscoe (-195)
• Christopher Bell (-165)
• Chase Elliott (-165)
• William Byron (-155)
• Ty Gibbs (-125)
• Joey Logano (-125)

There are a few options for this prop bet. However, my pick is Chase Elliott. Here’s a driver with desperation for a Top 10 to advance to the next round of the Playoffs, and the past success to pull it off.

Elliott has nine Top 10s in 16 starts and sports the second-best average finish (11.3). Yet, he has an 8.4 average finish over the last five Bristol races, and a 3.6 average finish over the last three Night Races at this venue. That’s a resume I can get behind.

Bet: Chase Elliott (-165)

NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks This Week

• Race: Food City 300
• Race #: 27th of the season
• Date: September 12
• Where: Bristol Motor Speedway

The JR Motorsports drivers enter the Playoffs sitting on top of the standings. Connor Zilisch won the regular season title and is the commanding favorite to capture the 2025 Xfinity Series Championship.

Zilisch not only won the final race of the regular season, but he set a new Xfinity record with nine wins for a rookie and he’s the odds-on favorite to win this Bristol race, as well.

The full 12-car field is set for the Playoffs but there are plenty of varying expectations for these drivers.

Can any other non-JR Motorsports driver win this race? Will Zilisch win his 10^th of the season? Will there be a non-Playoff driver in victory lane?

Food City 300 Odds

• Connor Zilisch (+250)
• Justin Allgaier (+250)
• Aric Almirola (+400)
• Jesse Love (+1000)
• Sam Mayer (+1200)
• Brandon Jones (+1400)
• Sheldon Creed (+1800)
• Taylor Gray (+1800)
• Carson Kvapil (+2000)
• Ryan Sieg (+2000)
• Sammy Smith (+2000)
• Austin Hill (+2200)
• Nicholas Sanchez (+6000)
• Harrison Burton (+10000)

Food City 300 Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Food City 300 on Friday night:

Connor Zilisch (+250) has been on a Jimmie Johnson, Richard Petty type winning streak over the last few months in the Xfinity Series. The kid has won four races in a row and seven of the last eight. He also has 14 straight Top 5 finishes.

Zilisch finished 12^th in the spring Bristol race, so he could be extra motivated to pick up another win at a track that he’s not had success at, as of yet. Zilisch will be the man to beat each week.

Justin Allgaier (+250) is one driver that can beat Zilisch at this race on Friday night. Allgaier does have two wins, 12 Top 5s, and 16 Top 10s in 25 Bristol stats. He sports an 11.4 average finish and was 3^rd in the Spring Bristol race. He won the 2023 Bristol Night Race.

Aric Almirola (+400) has raced well this season in his limited Xfinity starts. However, he’s only tallied on Top 5 at Bristol in his seven starts for this Series. I don’t see Almirola beating out other drivers who have had more success at this venue, and this season.

The Best Food City 300 Betting Value

The following Xfinity Series drivers offer betting value for Friday’s race based on their current odds and season to date:

Sam Mayer (+1200) has four Top 11s, three Top 10s, and one Top 5 in five Bristol starts. He was 9^th in this race last year and crashed out of the 2023 race. His best result was 4^th in the 2022 Night Race. Mayer sits third in the standings and has been a model of consistency all year long. I don’t see that changing this weekend as he has a good shot at a Top 5 result.

Brandon Jones (+1400) has four Top 5s and six Top 8s in his last seven Bristol appearances. If it weren’t for car issues in 2023, he would have even more impressive numbers. I think he offers value for a Top 10 finish, and could be a Top 5 contender if things break his way. He has four Top 6s in the last five races at Bristol.

The Top Food City 300 Longshot

Harrison Burton (+10000) didn’t have any success in the Cup Series at Bristol. However, when you look back at his Xfinity Series results at this venue, you see that Burton sports a 10.2 average finish in five starts with two Top 5s and four Top 10s.

He finished 26^th in the spring Bristol race this year, but I fully expect him to improve on that result. He’s too much of a longshot to win, but a Top 10 finish isn’t out of the question for a Playoff driver trying to advance to the next round.

Food City 300 Predictions

I don’t want to pick Zilisch every week, but it’s hard not to. With that said, I am going with his teammate Justin Allgaier. He had some bad luck last weekend, but also had one of the best cars until he got wrecked.

Allgaier was third in the spring Bristol race this season, and has two wins at this venue. Place a small wager on Zilisch’s teammate to get the win.

Bet: Justin Allgaier (+250)

NASCAR Truck Series Picks This Week

• Race: UNOH 200 presented by Ohio Logistics
• Race #: 20th of the season
• Date: September 11
• Where: Bristol Motor Speedway

The Truck Series returns this week for their second race of the Playoffs. If you recall, Corey Heim won the opening Playoff race. He’s also the odds-on favorite to not only win in Bristol this week but to take home the 2025 Craftsman Truck Series Championship.

Heim absolutely dominated the field during the regular season and it carried over to the Playoffs. Now, he’s the favorite to win at Bristol and it remains to be seen if any other driver can rise up to the occasion and take the checkered flag.  

Can Heim win two Playoff races in a row? Will Majeski get his first Truck Series win of the season? Will a Playoff driver win and move on to the next round? Will there be a non-Playoff driver in victory lane?

UNOH 200 Odds

• Corey Heim (+150)
• Layne Riggs (+350)
• Chandler Smith (+400)
• Ty Majeski (+850)
• Daniel Hemric (+1600)
• Tyler Ankrum (+1600)
• Grant Enfinger (+1800)
• Kaden Honeycutt (+2000)
• Raja Caruth (+2000)
• Corey Lajoie (+2200)
• Corey Day (+3300)
• Ben Rhodes (+4500)

UNOH 200 Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the UNOH 200 on Thursday night:

Corey Heim (+150) is the man to beat on Thursday night as he’s won eight of 19 races this season, including the opening Playoff race two weeks ago. Heim has one win, three Top 5s, and five Top 10s in five Bristol appearances which includes a 4.4 average finish.

Layne Riggs (+350) has three Bristol appearances and won this race last year. He also has three Top 10s and a solid 5.7 average finish. Riggs has shown no fear in trying to beat Heim. In fact, he’s literally bumped Heim out of the way in the final laps of races.

Chandler Smith (+400) leads Truck drivers with a 3.6 average finish. In five Bristol starts, smith has two wins, four Top 5s, and five Top 10s. He won this race in the spring and has never finished lower than 9^th. Smith is a real contender this weekend.

Best UNOH 200 Betting Value

The following Truck Series drivers offer betting value for Thursday’s race based on their current odds, season to date, and previous success at Bristol Motor Speedway:

Grant Enfinger (+1800) sits 4^th in the Playoff standings and could benefit from a solid result this week at Bristol, where he’s raced well at over this career. In 10 starts at Bristol, Enfinger has five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a 7.2 average finish.

Raja Caruth (+2000) sits 7^th in the Playoff standings just four points above the cutoff line. He has four consecutive Top 9 results since a DNF in his first ever Bristol appearance back in 2022. Caruth was third in this race last year and ninth in this season’s spring race.

Top UNOH 200 Longshot

Ben Rhodes (+4500) gets my vote as the top longshot. He’s tallied two Top 5s, seven Top 10s, and a 12.8 average finish in 12 Bristol starts. He was 5^th in the spring race this year and could provide nice longshot value for a Top 5 finish this Thursday.

UNOH 200 Predictions

Like with Zilisch in the Xfinity Series, we can easily pick Heim and call it a day. So, if you want to take the best Truck Series driver then go for it. I’m going to try and get a bit more value by going with either Riggs or Smith to win this event.

Since Smith won here in the spring, I will take Riggs, who won this race last year, to take home the checkered flag on Thursday night.

Bet: Layne Riggs (+350)

Favorite NASCAR Picks Of The Week

With all of the racing action going on this weekend, and the plethora of NASCAR picks to choose from, I want to highlight some wagers that are my favorite NASCAR picks of the week.

Chase Elliott Top 10 Finish at Bristol

In 16 Cup Series starts at Bristol, Chase Elliott has nine Top 10s along with the second-best average finish (11.3). Yet, he has an 8.4 Over the last five Bristol races Elliott has an 8.4 average finish. And, if that weren’t convincing enough, Elliott sports a 3.6 average finish over the last three Bass Shops Pro Night Races. He should be able to score a Top 10 finish in his sleep.

Chandler Smith Top 5 at Bristol

Smith has the best average finish among all Truck Series drivers at Bristol (3.6). He also has finished in the Top 5 on four occasions. Smith has two victories as Bristol including the spring race this season. He’s never finished worse than 9th at Bristol in the Truck Series.