Spring training is underway in preparation for the upcoming MLB regular season. Coming off an abbreviated 60-game schedule in 2020, baseball fans and bettors alike are looking forward to a return to the full 162-game MLB schedule.
One of the most popular MLB futures bets this time of the year is the OVER/UNDER on each team’s projected win total. As opposed to betting on the best teams in the league when it comes to World Series, league pennant and division title futures, there is some excellent value to be found throughout the betting board for projected wins.
Once the number of projected wins is set, every team starts out with -115 odds for betting the OVER or the UNDER. The early money coming in dictates how each of these money lines move up or down from here.
The Best of the Best
It is no big surprise that the Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest projected win total as reigning World Series Champions.
Set at 103½ wins, the early betting value could be on the UNDER. The Dodgers did win 104 games in 2017 and 106 games in 2019. However, winning that many games is not as easy to do with the target of being world champions on your back. Every team you face has the added motivation of beating the best.
Another factor could be the season series against the San Diego Padres as NL West Division rivals. The Padres have been touted as legitimate World Series contenders should Los Angeles slip a bit this season.
San Diego’s projected win total is 95½ games which happens to be the second-highest total on the board along with the New York Yankees.
The early betting value with San Diego is the UNDER on that total. The hype behind the Padres is running about as high as it gets despite being in the same division as the Dodgers. The last time San Diego eclipsed 95½ wins was in the 1998 season at 98-64.
New York is always over hyped this time of the year. The Yankees finished a full seven games off the pace behind the Tampa Bay Rays over 60 games last season to raise some concern.
However, the Yankees have crossed the 95½-game win threshold in back-to-back seasons prior to last year with 100 wins in 2018 and 103 wins in 2019. The early lean could be towards the OVER.
Some of the best value betting MLB win total futures can be found with the worst teams in the league. When spring training rolls around, every team’s goal is to move forward this season as compared to recent results.
That is actually easier to do with a team projected to only win 63½ games such as the NL West’s Colorado Rockies. Granted, they play in the same division as the Dodgers and Padres. Yet, the Rockies are only three seasons removed from going 91-72.
They current roster has far more holes than the 2018 version. Yet, getting to 70+ wins is not that big of a stretch.
Another team you could add to this list would be the Baltimore Orioles at 63½ wins. Do not get me wrong, this is still a very bad team. However, they play in a division that is not as nearly competitive as it once was.
The Orioles hit rock bottom with 47 wins in 2018. With 54 wins in 2019, another 10 wins this season is a realistic expectation.
A big part of the services that my marketing company, Blue Pointe Advisors, LLC offers is written content for sports betting websites. I have been working as a full-time sports betting writer for the past nine years following a previous career in the field of sales and marketing.
I consider myself extremely fortunate to be able to write about my true passion in life; the world of sports. I also enjoy concentrating the bulk of my pieces towards the betting angle in sports.
It is always a challenge to take past results and current form to try and correctly determine a future result. Sports brings out the unpredictability in what should be a fairly predictable outcome based on the stats, facts and recent trends in a particular matchup. The one thing that I have learned over the past decade or so is that when it comes to betting on sports there is no such thing as a lock.
The main objective with my writing style is to create insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player. While there are times when my predictions fall well short of the actual outcome, I still enjoy trying to come up with a logical explanation to support my views on every pick I make.
My love of sports started a long time ago when I was just a kid growing up just outside Philadelphia. While I was a big Phillies, Flyers and 76ers fan, my number one team was always the Eagles. My dad was a season ticket holder from 1961 to 2002 and I would honestly say that he missed less than a handful of games than more than a few dismal seasons.
I was fortunate enough to go to a number of Eagles’ games back in the day including the 1980 NFC Championship when Wilbert Montgomery ran roughshod over the bitter rival Dallas Cowboys to lead Philly to their first appearance in a Super Bowl. Flash forward 40 years later and am I still celebrating the thrilling victory over New England in Super Bowl LVII. I know that my dad was smiling down on that one.