2021 NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader Odds and Picks

Season-long quarterback props are one of the most heavily bet options heading into the new NFL season. One prop at the top of that list is total passing touchdowns.

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Some NFL quarterbacks can rack-up quite a few passing yards from one game to next. However, the ability to throw touchdowns on a consistent basis is what separates the best gunslingers from the rest of the pack.

Betting the Top 5

The betting odds for this season-long quarterback prop for most touchdown passes favors Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs. The updated betting odds are now +325.

Entering is fifth NFL season, Mahomes has already accomplished way more on the field than most quarterbacks have in an extended career. He was named NFL MVP after his second season and Super Bowl MVP in 2019. The Chiefs came up short against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in last year’s championship game, so Mahome’s motivation to put up some big numbers in 2021 remains high.

Aaron Rodgers led the NFL last season in touchdown throws with 48 on his way to earning MVP honors. The issue with betting Rodgers this season at +650 odds is an uncertain future in Green Bay. He could hold out or even retire in an effort to part ways with the Packers.

Also keep in mind that 2020 was an exceptional year for the future Hall of Fame quarterback. Repeating that kind of performance this season with all the offseason distraction is highly unlikely.

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Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady turns 44 on Aug. 3. He is also coming off a career year with 40 touchdown throws to finish tied for second with the Seattle Seahawks’ Russell Wilson. This is an exceptionally high number of TD throws given each of these player’s career averages.

Brady is set as a +525 second-favorite. However, last season was just the second time in his illustrious career that he tossed 40 or more touchdowns. Granted, Tampa Bay does have an explosive offense but even duplicating this number would be a stretch.

Wilson at +900 betting odds offers some value coming off a strong 2020 campaign. Yet, his current situation in Seattle has also been tenuous this past offseason. While he is still one of the most versatile quarterbacks in the NFL, this was the first time in eight seasons that Wilson threw for more than 35 scores.

The sweet spot in the Top 5 would be Josh Allen at +900 coming off an excellent effort in 2020 with the up and coming Buffalo Bills. He could take a major step forward this season after throwing for 37 touchdowns last year.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=8NFvTmqVF_o

One to Watch

I would put two quarterbacks into this category. The Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott at +1000 odds and the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert at +1800.

Prescott missed much of last season due to injury. Healthy with a fat new contract in hand, he will be looking to prove his worth.

Hebert is another quarterback on the rise after tossing 31 touchdown passes for the Chargers last year. That number could easily jump past 40 in 2021.

NFL Picks

Odds to Throw the Most NFL Passing Touchdowns in 2021

Patrick Mahomes +325

Tom Brady +525

Aaron Rodgers +650

Josh Allen +900

Russell Wilson +900

Dak Prescott +1000

Justin Herbert +1800

Kirk Cousins +1800

Matt Ryan +1800

Matthew Stafford +1800

Ryan Tannehill +2200

Baker Mayfield +2500

Jameis Winston +2500

Joe Burrow +2500

Ben Roethlisberger +3300

Derek Carr +3300

Kyler Murray +3300

Lamar Jackson +3300

Trevor Lawrence +3300

Carson Wentz +5000

Daniel Jones +5000

Ryan Fitzpatrick +5000

Sam Darnold +5000

Tua Tagovailoa +5000

Zac Wilson +6600

Jalen Hurts +8000

Jared Goff +8000

Read our NFL touchdown scorer props betting guide.