We’re going to focus on three teams – Virginia, Kentucky and Norfolk State – who I think have a real chance to cover the pointspread. They might make a nice parlay for you at America’s Bookie, or, if you are daring enough, put them in a money line parlay and get a nice payoff.
Best College Basketball Bookies
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Virginia Cavaliers Picks
When: 4 PM ET (Saturday, CBS)
There is no disputing the credentials of top-ranked Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are shooting a sizzling 64% from two-point range. They take the ball and run with it; consider that their average possession length is 13.8 seconds. The only team in the entire country that goes faster than that is Winthrop. And they have not been held below 87 points at all. They have also beaten ranked foes like Iowa and Kansas by double digits.
Gonzaga has not been used to getting top-rated recruits, but they brought one in this season in Jalen Suggs, a dynamite 6-4 guard who is hitting 50% of his three-point shots. Drew Timme is an All-America candidate, and one of the better big men you’ll find. But Corey Kispert, the 6-7 senior forward, has the second-highest Offensive Rating in the country.
So they keep coming at you, from all angles.
This is a daunting task for Virginia. But if any team can throw a monkey-wrench into the situation, perhaps the Cavaliers can.
And America’s Bookie patrons should examine the fascinating contrast in styles; while Gonzaga is so good at getting the ball up and down the floor, Virginia really tests everybody’s patience; there are 357 teams playing Division I basketball. And in the category of “Adjusted Tempo,” Virginia is 357th. Dead last. That means, in a manner of speaking, they are the slowest-operating, most deliberate team in the country.
And for many opponents, they have been the most frustrating. In case you’re not familiar, what has brought so much success to this ACC program (including a national title) is the “Pack Line” defense taught by head coach Tony Bennett, which is designed to limit the opposition from driving to the basket or hitting with impunity from mid-range. In other words, as it applies here, that defensive scheme is crafted to thwart what Gonzaga does best.
Yes, you can beat the Wahoos by shooting over them, but if you take a look, you’ll see that aside from the aforementioned Suggs, dead-eye shooters from long-range don’t really abound. The ‘Zags, on an overall basis, hit just 34.2% of their three-point shots. That’s 137th in the nation, so that’s rather ordinary.
Virginia takes good shots as well. They have hit 58.5% of their two-pointers. And they are programmed not to give advantages to their opponents either – they are just below 81% from the free throw line, commit very few fouls and rank sixth in the country in turnover percentage. They also get back on defense about as well as anyone in the nation.
Sure, it’s possible that Gonzaga could overwhelm Virginia with its own tempo. But just ask Roy Williams how Bennett and his Cavs have handled North Carolina’s brand of “racehorse” basketball in recent years (a clue: pretty damn well).
So I would not disqualify at all the ability of Virginia to make this into a frustrating experience for the #1 team in the country, and take it down to the wire.
Best NCAA Basketball Picks
Kentucky Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals Picks
When: 1 PM ET (Saturday, ESPN)
Things don’t necessarily look good for Kentucky right now, do they? After an easy opening win over Morehead State, they have lost five games in a row, and not all of them to ranked teams either. And now John Calipari has had to administer some discipline to one of his recruits, Cam’Ron Fletcher. It seems Fletcher was crying on the bench about his lack of playing time during a loss to North Carolina, and Coach Cal told him that won’t do, and to take a walk for a while.
And let’s be honest – Calipari is bringing in a bunch of big-time freshman recruits for NBA prep every year, and sometimes you get a bad batch.
Certainly Louisville has had a better time of it, but how much better? The most talented team the Cards have played this season is Wisconsin, and they were terminated with extreme prejudice (85-48). Kentucky can’t seem to shoot worth a damn, but they hit the offensive boards with abandon and defend the arc (allowing just 27% triples). Don’t tell me they don’t have a chance. And with the publicity surrounding UK’s rough start, you’ll see value.
NCAA Basketball Live Odds
Norfolk State Spartans at George Mason Patriots Picks
When: 4 PM ET (Saturday)
George Mason rebounds well, without question. And that is somewhere they have a big edge. But they are very reliant on shooting triples, and this is something Norfolk State defends pretty well (allowing just 27.6%). By contrast, NSU is 40% from long range and just got guard Joe Bryant back in the rotation.
The big red flag for us is GMU’s inability to hit free throws with any consistency (just 54.5%). It’s tough to extend leads like that. And thus, it’s tough to lay too many points with them.
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