The Miami Heat lead the Boston Celtics 3-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals and can potentially close out the series at home on Sunday night.
With their backs against the wall, Boston’s Jayson Tatum poured in 31 points and the Celtics defense clamped down the Heat’s three-point shooting for a 121-108 Game 5 victory.
Do the Celtics have another one in them?
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Celtics Comeback
It appeared early on in Game 5 that Miami was about to put Boston out of its misery. The Heat built a 58-41 halftime lead and were thinking about a few days off prior to an NBA Finals before the Celtics turned it around.
Tatum’s 31 points and 10 rebounds along with Jaylen Brown’s 28 points helped Boston come from behind in the second half. The big thing that helped the Celtics was their defense, especially in challenging Miami’s propensity for shooting threes.
Miami shot just 7-of-36 from behind the three-point line for a dreadful 19.4 percent. The Miami Heat are now shooting just 24.8 percent on threes in their last 13 quarters of play. That could be bad news.
Reminiscing
The Boston Celtics are now 2-0 when facing elimination this season. The last time Boston won more than one elimination game in the same season was back in 2008.
Boston won two Game 7’s that year – one in the first round and another in the conference semifinals. The Celtics went on to win the NBA title that season.
Miami Third
The last time the Heat gave up 41 points in a quarter in a postseason game was in the 2014 NBA Finals. Miami was outscored 41-25 – ironically the same tally as Game 5 – by the San Antonio Spurs in the third quarter of Game 3.
The Spurs would go on to win that series and the NBA title, 4-1.
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Miami ATS
The Heat are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games. If we look a little closer, Miami is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. All of those games have come against either Boston or Milwaukee.
In each game that Miami covered the point spread, the Heat also won the game straight up. In the three games that Miami didn’t cover, they lost. The last two losses were both by double figures.
Boston Strong
The Celtics will be the road team on Sunday night in the bubble in Orlando. In their last 10 road games, Boston is 9-1 straight up. The Celtics are also 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against the Heat when playing as the road team.
The thing is though…Boston is just 2-4 ATS in their last six games against Miami.
Celtics vs. Heat Game 6 Predictions
Miami’s Jimmy Butler is vying for his first NBA Finals trip. He is averaging nearly 20 points a game but suffered through a 1-for-5 second half in Game 5. Expect Butler and three-point shooter Duncan Robinson to regroup.
Remember, in the 277 previous times that an NBA team has fallen behind 3-1 in a postseason playoff series, there have been only 13 occasions where a team came back to win. Two of those happened this season when the Denver Nuggets did it.
Expect Boston to battle and, ultimately, keep it close. With Boston favored by 3.5, this is the perfect opportunity to take the home underdog, but take them on the moneyline.
BEST BET: MIAMI +139
