Merry Christmas. Let’s win some money. Here are three OVER plays for Friday’s action.
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Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers Picks
America’s Bookie NBA Odds: Lakers -6, Total 227
The Lakers did not get their offense going nearly as much as they expected against the Clippers on opening night. LeBron James and Anthony Davis logged reasonable minutes, with 40 points between them. But what was really missing was any contribution from starting center Marc Gasol.
It was such an unreasonably bad Laker debut for the man who was once an NBA All-Star – he played only twelve minutes, with no points and five personal fouls. He didn’t even take a shot from the field. Head coach Frank Vogel is adamant about the fact that he wants Gasol more involved in the offense. And that would make all the sense in the world, as his ability to play in the high post can draw big men out closer to the perimeter and allow Davis more room to operate inside.
Meanwhile, with a combined 32 points out of Kyle Kuzma and Montrezl Harrell, the Lakers’ bench would seem to be in pretty good shape. We’ll look for more from them, in addition to Wesley Matthews, who was brought in partially for his outside shooting ability.
Dallas is without Kristaps Porzingis for a while, and yes, that is a tough break. But all that means is that Luka Doncic, who averaged just under 30 points last season, will score more. Understand something about this team – in all the years the NBA has been measuring “Offensive Rating,” the Mavs had the highest ever last season. And they could finish no better than 18th in Defensive Rating.
What came as a result of that could have been expected – Dallas played 60.5% of its games OVER the total.
You’re welcome.
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LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets Picks
America’s Bookie NBA Odds: Clippers -2.5, Total 224.5
This would be a very unusual “over,” as the Clippers are a team that puts a number of All-Defensive selections on the floor at once. But those guys also have two-way capability, in particular Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, who could bust out for 30 each on any given night. In fact, “PG-13,” who was a goat of sorts in last year’s playoff collapse against Denver, where he shot just 39.9% and the Clips blew a lead of three games to one, was hot as a pistol in the opener against the Lakers, hitting 13 of his 18 shots. And the Clippers hung 39 first quarter points on the defending world champs.
The Nuggets have great offensive ability, At the center of that is, well, the center, and Nikola Jokic lit up the stat sheet with 29 points, 15 rebounds and 14 assists against Sacramento the other night. But the Nuggets are an average defensive team, compared to others, and they lost some legitimate stoppers in the off-season, such as Torrey Craig and Jerami Grant.
But they figure to get a better performance in Game #2 out of Jamal Murray, who made just one field goal in nine attempts to show for 34 minutes against the Kings. And if their effort on the glass against Sacramento was any indication (allowing 17 offensive rebounds), the Clippers WILL get second chances.
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Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics Picks
America’s Bookie NBA Odds: Nets -3, Total 227
Under Brad Stevens the Celtics have been a very solid defensive squad – in fact, they were fourth in the NBA in Defensive Rating last season. But they were also fourth in Offensive Rating as well. So they will find a way to score.
The Nets are kind of interesting, obviously, not just because they have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving teaming up finally, but because that combo allows them to be very deep. The second unit has a star in Caris LeVert, who was – we dare say – kind of dominant during the bubble period and scored 20 points off the bench in the opening win over Golden State. The Nets’ reserves have explosive potential.
And all indications are that the Steve Nash-Mike D’Antoni influence is going to have Brooklyn running whenever possible. Of the 28 NBA teams that have played a game, only Indiana had more fast break points in their opener than the Nets’ 28.
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