Saturday will feature some tremendous college basketball games. The under is calling my name in a few of the day’s matchups.
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Here are four NCAA basketball totals that should go under on Saturday.
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Virginia Cavaliers Picks
Best Bet: Under 139.5 Points
The Gonzaga vs. Virginia game is the most exciting matchup on the Saturday slate. The total is set at 139.5 points, and I believe this game will go under.
Gonzaga is the top-ranked team in the country, and for good reason. The Bulldogs are able to score points, but Virginia is legit on defense.
Virginia is giving up only 54 points per game, as 7-1 senior Jay Huff controls the paint for the Cavaliers. Gonzaga will have to earn its points on Saturday.
Gonzaga is giving up 77 points per game. Defense is one of the things that could hurt the Bulldogs down the stretch.
However, Virginia struggles on offense. I don’t think it has a team that can put up a lot of points on Gonzaga.
Virginia’s defense and its weak offense will make this game stay under. Virginia is 3-2 against the under in 2020.
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Kentucky Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals Picks
Best Bet: Under 134 Points
Kentucky has gone under in all six of its games this season. Louisville is .500 against the over/under in 2020-21.
This year’s Kentucky program isn’t anything close to what we’ve seen in the past. The team is 1-5 this season and shooting a combined 42.6% from the field.
Louisville wins with defense. The team isn’t very explosive on offense, but the Cardinals beat teams up in the backcourt. The Cardinals are only giving up 61.8 points per game.
Kentucky is giving up 67.3 points per game. Brandon Boston Jr. is the Wildcats’ offensive star, averaging 14.5 points per contest.
However, on the road, he’s shooting just 36.4% from the field. Kentucky is on the road against a great Louisville defense, so Boston’s shooting issues should continue on Saturday. This will help this total stay under 134 points.
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Robert Morris Colonials at Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons Picks
Best Bet: Under 137.5 Points
Robert Morris and Purdue Fort Wayne will both enter this game with records of 1-2. These teams are a combined 2-2 against the under on games where totals were offered.
These teams have only played a few games this year, but their performances make the under very appealing on Saturday.
Robert Morris gives up 75 points per game, while PFW allows 71 points per game. However, neither team is very strong on offense. Both teams are better defensively than on the offensive end.
This is the recipe for any basketball total going under. Each team generates a lot of steals, which will keep points off the board. These teams combine for 17 steals per game.
This Horizon League matchup is screaming under in Indiana on Saturday.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Northwestern Wildcats Picks
Best Bet: Under 141.5 Points
Big Ten basketball is all about defense, and Ohio State and Northwestern are strong on defense. Northwestern is only giving up 61 points per game.
The Wildcats are scoring 87.7 points per game, but we need to take this statistic for what it’s worth. Northwestern hasn’t played a difficult schedule in the early portion of the 2020-21 season.
Ohio State is in the same boat. The Buckeyes and the Wildcats have only faced one ranked opponent each this year.
Ohio State is giving up 65.8 points per game and scoring 77.4 per game. The game will go under if Ohio State forces Northwestern into taking contested shots.
The Wildcats, who are led by Boo Buie, can be deadly if they’re given easy opportunities. If Ohio State plays them tough in the backcourt, this game should stay under 137.5 points.
