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Week eight is in the books, and we saw another amazing round of Top 25 NCAA Football. There were some huge surprises and then there were some not so surprising upsets, such as Wisconsin going to Purdue and embarrassing the Boilermakers. Purdue had not seen the Top 25 in some 14- years, and then ran their mouth all week long about “beating the No 2 out of Iowa”.
We have one thing to say – stay humble! This is college football, and anything can happen, especially in the power conferences. If you have not yet found a great offshore bookmaker then do so this week. There is still time to get a fair NCAA deposit bonus. Ask the bookmaker to explain the bonus and ask them when you will be payout eligible. If you are using a domestic bookmaker, that’s great, but having an offshore bookie is also a great way to keep everyone honest and find the perfect lines and odds.
#2 Cincinnati (7-0, 5-2-0 ATS) @ Tulane (1-6, 2-5-0 ATS)
Odds: Cincinnati -25 O/U 62
When: 11:00 AM ET: ESPN2
Where: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA
The Cincinnati Bearcats underperformed last week against Navy, but we don’t think there is any danger of that happening again this week. Forget about how good Cincinnati is or isn’t, this week is all about how bad Tulane is! There will be redemption this week and the Bearcats will prove to the bookmakers that -25, is nothing short of disrespect. Tulane allows an eyepopping 42.3 points per game, and because of the weak schedule they play, they manage to post 32.1 points per game. That won’t happen in this game, they will be fortunate to post 20-points We see this as a 58-17 kind of game.
Pick: Cincinnati -25, Over 62
#6 Michigan (7-0, 6-1-0 ATS) @ Michigan State (7-0, 5-1-1 ATS)
Michigan vs. Michigan State Preview
Odds: Michigan -4, ML -190/+160, O/U 50.5
Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
When: 11:00 AM ET FOX
This is always a fun one and this year, both teams come in with much to prove. Can Harbaugh keep this going, can he run the table this year and possibly win a championship? Here is a big problem for Mr. Harbaugh – Alabama has one loss. If Michigan has a chance this year, they can’t afford one loss, not one, and they need to beat bad teams, big. Harbaugh has this team tuned up and although we think State could win, simply based on this crazy rivalry. We are opting with reality. The Michigan Wolverines have finally put a team together and Harbaugh said this — “It’s an elimination mindset”. Jim Harbaugh never says things like this, and we think he knows what he’s dealing with in this game and he will be prepared. Corum and Haskins will be difficult to contain.
Pick: Michigan -4, Under 50.5
#9 Iowa (6-1, 5-2-0 ATS) @ Wisconsin (4-3, 3-4-0 ATS)
Odds: Iowa +3.5, ML +145/-170 O/U 36.5
When: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
Where: 11:00 AM ET ESPN
Iowa is sitting on a bye, after losing to now unranked Purdue. Wisconsin is fresh off of beating down Purdue, in Purdue’s house. Wisconsin stood up to a bully and said, “we are still relevant in the BIG 10”. Both teams come into this game as hard to score on opponents, and Purdue completely overlooked the Badgers. Iowa will not make this mistake; however, it will be close, it will be a fight and it will be a low scoring affair.
Pick: Iowa +3.5 Under 36.5
Texas (4-3, 4-3-0 ATS) @ #16 Baylor (6-1, 5-2-0 ATS)
Odds: Texas +2.5 ML +130/-150, O/U 61.5
Where: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
When: 11:00 AM ET ABC
Let’s cut to the chase. Bet on Baylor! Texas is not what anyone has hoped and after all they have been through, here they go again. This program is in a perpetual rebuild and who really knows when they will be a dominate force in the Big 12. Baylor found its way back quickly and they have proven themselves to be legit with big wins over ISU, WVU, and BYU. Texas puts up a ton of points (41.6) but Baylor allows 18.7. We like Baylor and others like Texas because they are Texas. That’s a bunch of hooey! Baylor is the better football team.
Pick: Baylor -2 buying the hook, Under 61.5
Miami (3-4, 3-4-0 ATS) @ #17 Pittsburgh (6-1, 6-1-0 ATS)
Odds: Miami +9, ML +300/-380 O/U 61
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
When: 11:00 AM ET ACCN
The Hurricanes have gone and done it again; put up a stinker of a season. This program is much like Texas – perpetually rebuilding. When the madness stops, and they become relevant again, is anybody’s guess. What we do know is this – Pittsburgh used to be the stinkers, that was then, this is now, and this team is good, really good. They beat Clemson last week, 27-17, they have beaten VT, 28-7, GT, 52-21, UNH, 77-7. They put up 523.6 yards per game and hold their opponents to 19.6 ppg. Miami is allowing 30 ppg.
Pick: Pittsburgh -9, Over 61
#22 Iowa State (5-2, 3-4-0 ATS) @ West Virginia (3-4, 4-3-0 ATS)
Iowa State vs. West Virginia Preview
Odds: Iowa State -7, ML -280/+230, O/U 48
Where: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV
When: 1:00 PM ET BIG12ESPN+
West Virginia is not what they were a couple of years ago, they are a program in transition. They are well coached, and they are program that believes in staying in the fray. With that said, Iowa State pretty much owns them, and have beaten them in three straight. We don’t see today being any different, however, we think this one stays close. We can’t back the money line, but we like +7 at home. The quarterback play is in favor of WVU, the ground game favors Iowa State, at the end of the day, this one stays close and could see a WVU win.
Pick: West Virginia +7, Over 48
#1 Georgia (7-0, 5-2-0 ATS) @ Florida (4-3, 3-4-0 ATS)
Odds: Georgia -14, ML -650/+450, O/U 51
Where: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
When: 2:30 PM ET CBS
Florida is a great football team and it would be easy to jump on their bandwagon for the upset over #1 Georgia. The problem, and it’s a glaring problem – Georgia hold opponents to just 6.6 yards per game! 6.6, this is a sick number, it’s an insane number. This team doesn’t let anybody score, ever. If anybody could score, it’s Florida, they put up 34.4 ppg, the problem, ha, here we go again. The problem – Georgia puts up 38.4 ppg. The Bulldogs are too good, they are the legit #1, and will prove it against a good Florida Gators team.
Pick: Georgia -14, Over 51
Texas Tech (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) @ #4 Oklahoma (8-0, 3-5-0 ATS)
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma Preview
Odds: Texas Tech +19.5, ML +700/-1100, O/U 66.5
Where: Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
When: 2:30 PM ET ABC
The Sooners have weapons, a lot of weapons. The problem with those weapons is their lack of use, or should we say, the Sooners pick their spots and have missed covering the spread in 5- games this season. The Sooners are easily the better team and at home, they are close to impossible to beat. There is no doubt who wins this matchup, but will they cover -19.5? It may seem difficult to lay 19.5 on the Sooners, and Texas Tech is not trash, but they are not great on any level. Every great team has a hiccup now and then, that hiccup was last week against Kansas, it won’t happen today, nope, not in Norman.
Pick: Oklahoma -19 buying the hook, Over 66.5
Colorado (2-5, 2-5-0 ATS) @ # 7 Oregon (6-1, 2-5-0 ATS)
Odds: Colorado +24, O/U 49
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
When: 2:30 PM ET FOX
The Ducks have been overvalued all season long, are they overvalued today? The better question; how bad is Colorado? Colorado scores 15.1 ppg to Oregon’s 33.9. That number certainly looks awful, and it is… Colorado can’t buy an end zone, however, Colorado is allowing just 20.7 ppg, to Oregon’s 22.4. Other than a 34-0 win over Arizona, Colorado has no redeeming games to compare to Oregon. This team is really, really bad! Oregon puts up 425.3 yards per game against Colorado’s 238. Oregon presents multiple ways to attack, with a stellar ground game and a solid attack from the air. Colorado may lose this one by 50!
Pick: Oregon -24, Over 49
Duke (3-4, 4-3-0 ATS) @ #13 Wake Forest (7-0, 3-4-0 ATS)
Duke vs. Wake Forest Preview
Odds: Duke +16, ML +550/-800, O/U 70
Where: Truist Field, Winston-Salem, NC
When: 3:00 PM ET ACCN
Nobody thinks of Duke as a football school, because they are not, however, the program has much improved over the recent years but has taken a bit of a setback this season. Wake is playing great football and putting up an insane amount of points. This game will be entertaining, don’t get out of your seat too often, there will be scoring at every sip of your beer! Wake is a much better football team and they have the numbers to back it up.
Pick: Wake Forest -16, Over 70
#10 Ole Miss (6-1, 4-2-1 ATS) @ #18 Auburn (5-2, 4-3-0 ATS)
Odds: Ole Miss +2.5, ML +120/140 O/U 66
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
When: 6:00 PM ET ESPN
These SEC matchups are tough, gritty, and fun. Corral is having a great year for Ole Miss with 1913 yards, 15 TDs’ and 1 INT. Nix is also having a solid year with 1488 yards, 8 TD’s, and 2 INT’s. Corral has 474 yards on the ground to Bigsby’s 526 yards rushing for Auburn. The Tigers give up 19.7 ppg, while Ole Miss gives up 28.3 ppg. Both of these teams score like a house on fire, so stay close to the TV because there will be action all-game long.
Pick: Auburn +3, Over 66.5
#12 Kentucky (6-1, 6-1-0 ATS) @ Mississippi State (4-3, 3-4-0 ATS)
Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Preview
Odds: Kentucky -Even, ML -110, O/U 47
Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
When: 6:00 PM ET SECN
Kentucky’s only loss was to #1 Georgia, 30-13. State has lost to Alabama, 49-9, LSU, 28-25, and Memphis, 31-29. Although Mississippi State looks good on paper and they stack up nicely, Kentucky’s record cannot be ignored. They have been good, and at times, they have been very good. We also can’t ignore State’s QB Rogers, with 2546 yards, 18 TD’s and 7 INT’s. This prolific passing offense is one for the record books, and to boot, State has weapons on the ground. Kentucky’s QB, Lewis, has put up a respectable 1828 yards himself, with 13 TD’s and 6 INT’s. This one is going to be fun, fun, and more fun.
Pick: Kentucky Even Money, Over 47
Kansas (1-6, 1-6-0 ATS) @ #15 Oklahoma State (6-1, 5-2-0 ATS)
Kansas vs. Oklahoma State Preview
Odds: Kansas +30.5, O/U 54.5
Where: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
When: 6:00 PM ET FS1
Kansas showed up last week against Oklahoma but have no fear, they won’t do it again! As difficult as it may be for some to lay 30.5 points on a team that lost the week before, it’s equally as difficult to take those 30.5 points on a team that allows 42.1 ppg! Oklahoma has a way of letting down against bad opponents, that’s the Sooners, not the Cowboys, and, that game was in Kansas. This one is back in Stillwater and it will get ugly for the Jayhawks very quickly.
Pick: Oklahoma State -30.5, Over 54.5
#19 SMU (7-0, 5-2-0 ATS) @ Houston (6-1, 4-3-0 ATS)
Odds: SMU/HOU EVEN -110, O/U 62.5
Where: TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX
When: 6:00 PM ET ESPN2
This matchup is always a good one and is certainly a rival game. You can expect close, and high scoring. SMU scores 42.7 per game, to Houston’s 36.3. SMU allows 22.7 ppg, to Houston’s 17.3. Both teams put up a ton of yards. Mordechai is having a stellar year with 2320 yards, 29 TD’s and 7 INT’s. This game comes down to one factor when betting, strength of schedule. SMU has the quality wins and Houston does not. Houston is great, they are playing well, and they will play well in this game, but at the end of the day, we must go with SMU.
Pick: SMU Even Money, Over 62.5
#20 Penn State (5-2, 4-3-0 ATS) @ #5 Ohio State (6-1, 4-2-1 ATS)
Penn State vs. Ohio State Preview
Odds: Penn State +18.5, ML +650/-1000, O/U 60
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
When: 6:30 PM ET ABC
Penn State is who we thought they were, and we did not let them off the hook last week against Illinois. 24-points is a lot of points to lay against a rival, and sure enough, Illinois came through. Ohio State is who we think they are, they are very good and well capable of a 20+ point win. Clifford is a solid QB for Penn State, but he is no Stroud, and Cain is nowhere near the back that Henderson is. Ohio State has all the weapons once again and they are poised for a title run. Penn State has taken a step back with the loss to Illinois.
Pick: Ohio State 18.5, Over 60
North Carolina (4-3, 3-4-0 ATS) @ #11 Notre Dame (6-1, 4-3-0 ATS)
North Carolina vs. Notre Dame Preview
Odds: North Carolina +3.5, ML +150/-175 O/U 62.5
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
When: 6:30 PM ET NBC
Notre Dame is the better team and at home, -3.5 is disrespect. North Carolina is not a bad team; however, strength of schedule comes into play for our betting decision in this one. Both Howell for NC, and Coan for ND are playing well, the running game is close, and the receiving core is close. On paper, these two are very well matched. Creedence must be given to a big win by ND over USC 31-16, #18 (at the time) Wisconsin, and Purdue, 27-13. NC has lost to FSU 35-25, and GT 45-22. Both of the losses are difficult to overlook.
Pick: Notre Dame -3.5, Over 62.5
Virginia (6-2, 6-2-0 ATS) @ #25 BYU (6-2, 3-5-0 ATS)
Odds: Virginia +2.5, ML +120/-140, O/U 64
Where: LaVelle Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
When: 9:15 PM ET ESPN2
It’s a difficult task to fly across the country and win a football game in hostile territory. If there is anybody this weekend that can do this very thing, it’s Virginia. The one issue we have with Virginia is defense – it’s an afterthought, they allow 26.4 ppg. They are scoring 37.6 ppg to BYU’s 22.5. What shine in this game, defense, or offense? Usually it works like this, defense wins at home and offense wins on the road. If this is the case, then we are duty bound to take Virginia. BYU has not shown us anything, they have beaten a bunch of scrubs.
Pick: Virginia +2.5, over 64
Fresno State (6-2, 5-3-0 ATS) @ #21 San Diego State (7-0, 5-2-0 ATS)
Fresno State vs. San Diego State Preview
Odds: Fresno State +1, ML -105/-115, O/U 44.5
Where: Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA
When: 9:30 PM ET CBSSN
Fresno State can win this game, but they won’t. San Diego State is playing great football and they are officially back as a program. They score 31.1 ppg, to Fresno’s 35.6. They are back on defense and standing tall with 15.7 ppg. allowed. Both teams run the ball well, and both have the ability to spread the offense in any direction with a pass first mindset. Heaner is having a fantastic year for Fresno with more than 2500 yards, 22 TD’s and 8 INT’s, he is blessed with an easy schedule. SDSU will win this game, it will be close, it will be entertaining, and it will be fun.
Pick: San Diego State -1, Under 44.5
There are 18-Top 25 games this week and every one of them will be worth watching, and certainly worth betting on. There is value in close to every game this week with either the spread or the total. Choose wisely and find an offshore bookmaker that offers the sharpest lines and odds. Jump in, find a great NCAA bonus and start winning tonight. Week 9 is going to be a dandy.
