I must admit that one of my favorite pastimes these days is following the path of Urban Meyer as he is embarking on his maiden NFL voyage.
Meyer has won three national titles, but he had never spent any time in pro football prior to this season. And apparently it’s showing. He’s struggled in his attempt to deal with pro players, alienating many of them along the way. He was skipping some media “avails,” which was kind of amateurish.
Let’s face it – there are no Akrons or Kent States or Florida A&M’s on the schedule. He doesn’t have a built-in advantage in recruiting in Jacksonville, as he did at Ohio State. He faces a lot of losing while he’s rebuilding a franchise.
After just one game, it was already rumored that he might be interested in bolting J-Ville for a shot at the USC job. Who can forget the way Bobby Petrino disappeared from Atlanta to move on to a collegiate job at Arkansas, after just thirteen games?
How much worse will the Jaguars’ situation get before it gets better?
Cardinals at Jaguars Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, September 26 at 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Arizona Cardinals -7.5 (-105) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 (-115)
The Play: CARDINALS -7.5 (-105)
Well, this is naturally a big number to lay out there. But it has to be understood that while Arizona just got by last week against Minnesota, its offensive attack is fully formed. And it follows a concept that has evolved from pure “Air Raid” to something with more balance.
Meanwhile, another thing has to be understood – Trevor Lawrence is a work in progress. He has thrown five interceptions in the first two games, and this week he’ll have to deal with Chandler Jones and JJ Watt putting as much pressure on him as they possibly can.
And that’s okay; even Payton Manning went through these growing pains, and he threw a lot of interceptions as a rookie (28, to be exact). J-Ville is likely to be an underdog in every game this season (with the possible exception of an AFC South rematch with Houston, if indeed another rookie, Davis Mills, is behind center). And they are on a 17-game losing streak. We’ll fade them until further notice.
Colts at Titans Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, September 26 at 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Tennessee Titans -5 (-120) vs. Indianapolis Colts +5 (+100)
The Play: TITANS -5 (-120)
We don’t want it to sound as if we are down on the Titans at all; in fact, we were very impressed with their comeback victory at Seattle. Perhaps it is understandable that they didn’t click in the first week, as Ryan Tannehill and Julio Jones didn’t have a lot of time to work together in camp under the new offensive coordinator, Todd Downing.
But with 127 yards in receptions last week, we’d say that situation is being rectified. And once again Derrick Henry was a beast (182 yards). But everything isn’t ideal. Tennessee suffered some offensive line attrition in last week’s game, as they may have lost three starters (you’ll have to check their status as the game approaches).
One of them was Taylor Lewan, who didn’t play at all. The other two were Ty Sambrallo and Rodger Saffold. But the funny thing is, those latter two went down in the third quarter, and that is when the Titans – and Henry specifically – really started to sizzle. So maybe that’s an issue that can be addressed more effectively than most think.
Colts QB Carson Wentz has TWO sprained ankles. He doesn’t move well as it is, so this is a big problem. Jacob Eason is the backup, and we don’t know that he’s ready.
Saints at Patriots Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, September 26 at 1 PM ET
Totals Odds: Over 43 Points (-110) / Under 43 Points (-110)
The Play: UNDER 43 (-110)
Mac Jones has played very well with regard to minimizing mistakes. And he does look poised in the pocket. But he’s playing a rather controlled game thus far. We would assume that is by design.
In terms of Intended Air Yards Per Attempt, Jones is third from the bottom among all quarterbacks who have at least 25 throws (at 3.1 yards per attempt). So this is low risk. And through two games, the Pats have the lowest percentage of red zone trips for TD’s.
Sure it’s early. And certainly Bill Belichick will expand the scope of what he does. For now, maybe not. New England will try to run it, but the Saints have been a tough team to do that against, both this year and last (second in NFL in ypc allowed both seasons).
Meanwhile, we thought there was something a little deceiving about Jameis Winston’s five-TD day vs. Green Bay, because he produced only 148 yards. Reality may be closer to the two picks he threw last week. Thirteen of the Pats’ last 19 games have gone under the total.
Jets at Broncos Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, September 26 at 4:05 PM ET
Totals Odds: Over 41 Points (-110) / Under 41 Points (-110)
The Play: UNDER 41 (-110)
Vic Fangio’s defensive game plan rendered Trevor Lawrence relatively helpless last week (14 of 33, 2 INT’s). So if he was able to do that, he might just flummox Zach Wilson, who has looked like a deer in the headlights, with five INT’s and ten sacks already.
Sure, it’s part of the learning process, and Fangio, who will send Von Miller right after him (and maybe Bradley Chubb, who has an injured ankle), will be part of that indoctrination process.
For the time being, it’s going to be hard for the Jets to reach the end zone. But you can’t really disparage what Gang Green has done on the defensive end, as it ranks in the top ten in a lot of categories, including yards allowed per drive.
Teddy Bridgewater leads the league in Air Yards per throw, and the Broncos are #1 in offensive yards per drive, but that’s against the Giants and Jags. We think we can fit in under this total.
Seahawks at Vikings Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, September 26 at 4:25 PM ET
ATS Odds: Seattle Seahawks -1 (-115) vs. Minnesota Vikings +1 (-105)
The Play: SEAHAWKS -1 (-115)
What is worse – losing two winnable games on late field goals, or blowing a big lead on your home turf against a team that had been clubbed in the previous week?
Well, that is a tough one to answer.
This week, the Vikings pose Seattle with similar components to what they faced last week, meaning a big-time running back and high-volume passer, with some pretty capable wide receivers to work with.
But it’s not too bold to say that the receivers aren’t as threatening this week.
I would suggest that if we’re talking about quarterbacks, Russell Wilson’s psyche might be a little stronger than that of Kirk Cousins.
And for what it’s worth, in this near-pick’em situation it’s important to keep in mind that the Seahawks have won 13 of their last 17 games on the road.
