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It is difficult for me to disguise my feeling that if Shakur Stevenson becomes the face of boxing, that’s a sign of danger for the sport. This is the way people are talking, however.
The reason I say this is that, back in 2018, I watched a videotape of Stevenson and some of his “posse,” including fellow fighter David Grayton, unload with a barrage of punches on some unsuspecting people in a South Beach parking garage, including a couple of women who were hit pretty hard – one of them literally with a rabbit punch by Stevenson. It was a thuggish action that should have brought much more punishment than the virtual slap on the wrist that resulted.
As it is, the kid is on his way to becoming the boxing fan’s version of a “superstar.” He’s already held the WBO featherweight title and has since moved up to 130 pounds to take that organization’s junior lightweight crown.
There is an obstacle in his way. Oscar Valdez is also a two-division champion, coming off the biggest win of his career. He does not lack for experience, so he looks to teach Stevenson a lesson.
Can he?
Stevenson vs. Valdez Betting Lines
In the boxing betting odds that have been posted on this 130-pound title unification fight, Stevenson is the clear favorite:
Shakur Stevenson -900
Oscar Valdez +550
Over 10.5 Rounds -280
Under 10.5 Rounds +220
About Oscar Valdez
Valdez (30-0, 23 KO’s) has won the WBO featherweight (126-pound) title, as well as the WBC crown at super featherweight (130 pounds). He’s been around for almost 9-1/2 years, undefeated throughout that period, and that includes one where he overcame his status as a decisive underdog.
He has fought his last four bouts as a 130-pounder, and on February 20 of last year, he put Miguel Berchelt on the deck three times on his way to a 10th-round stoppage that won him the WBC belt.
His last fight was in September, a decision over former Olympic gold medalist Robson Conceição. Valdez tested positive for a banned substance, but since a tribal commission in Arizona had jurisdiction, the rules permitted him to fight.
About Shakur Stevenson
Valdez, at 31, is quite a bit older than the 22-year-old Stevenson, who comes in with a record of 17-0 with nine wins inside the distance.
A decorated amateur career brought the Newark, NJ native a silver medal at the 2016 Olympics. After twelve pro fights, there was bad blood as Stevenson stepped in against Joel Gonzalez for the WBO title at 126 pounds. Gonzalez’s sister had been Stevenson’s girlfriend, and the family was understandably not on board with that. But Stevenson is the guy who felt ecstasy in the end, with an easy decision and the title, which he surrendered rather quickly as he moved up to 130 pounds.
In beating Jeremiah Nakathila to win the WBO interim title at 130 pounds, he was none too impressive, but then, in stopping Jamel Herring in ten rounds, he more than made up for that.
Stevenson vs. Valdez Predictions
Stevenson by Decision or Technical Decision -200
Stevenson by KO, TKO or DQ +230
Valdez by KO, TKO or DQ +700
Valdez by Decision or Technical Decision +1600
Draw or Technical Draw +1800
This actually breaks down relatively easily for me. Not only am I doubtful that Stevenson can achieve a stoppage win, I don’t even think he’s looking for one. I’m of the opinion that he is perfectly content with outboxing Valdez and staying one step ahead of him for the entirety of the scheduled twelve rounds.
And is Valdez a candidate for that? Well, he takes certain qualities into the ring, and those include above-average hand and foot speed, but it should be noted that in his career-best win, which just happened against the estimable Berchelt, he was facing somebody who was rather lumbering by comparison. And he went into that fight a decided underdog. Stevenson will take him to a whole new level.
Generally, when I see that one fighter has certain things he does well, but the other guy can do those same things better, that makes picking the winner somewhat less problematic. The only thing Stevenson can’t do better is punch, and so he’ll tailor a game plan that doesn’t make that kind of thing necessary, as hecontrols things with a jab.
I can envision Stevenson continuing to go through his routine of hitting (however lightly) and staying out of trouble the whole way, to the point where it’s completely possible that he could have Valdez “sleepwalking” (i.e., just following him around the ring in vain) before all is said and done.
Well, considering how I expect this thing to progress, and the low expectation I have of a Stevenson knockout, i would think that laying a price on a decision win makes a lot more sense than to lay -900 on the straight win. Therefore, here are the plays I think could offer some value:
Over 10.5 Rounds -280
Stevenson by Decision or Technical Decision -200
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