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It’s another Friday night in the NBA and that means the schedule is full. It’s a boon for bettors too with plenty of opportunities to capitalize.
Golden State continues to have the best record in the league at 12-2 heading into Thursday night. It’s the Miami Heat (11-4) and Cleveland (10-4-2) that have the best records against the spread.
Where is the value on Friday night? Here are the top five NBA picks for Friday, November 19 2021.
LA Lakers vs. Boston Celtics
Best Bet: Under 214.5
LeBron James is expected back tonight and that will have a distinct impact on the Lakers. For one, it will improve the team’s defense which was below the league average while James was out.
Boston has been one of the best defensive teams in the league in November. The Celtics are second in defensive efficiency over their last eight games. Five of those eight opponents were held to 92 or fewer points.
The Under has cashed in four of Boston’s last five games. Expect L.A. to struggle a bit on offense either without James or with him back in the lineup. Back the Under.
Chicago Bulls vs. Denver Nuggets
Best Bet: UNDER 211
Both teams have a number of injuries that will keep out some key players in tonight’s game. Denver is No. 1 in points allowed per game this season. The Nuggets allow 99.2 points per game. They rank No. 4 in defensive efficiency this season.
The Bulls aren’t far behind. Chicago is sixth in points allowed per game (103.3) and, like Denver, they trend toward the Under. Four of the last six Bulls games have seen the total go Under.
The Under is 11-4 in Denver’s last 15 games. Prior to losing their last two, the Nuggets had a stretch of five straight games where they held their opponent under 100 points. Tonight’s game will be a defensive battle and the Under prevails.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
Best Bet: SUNS -7.5
Pretty much everything you need to know is wrapped up in the injury report for this game. Luka Doncic is listed as doubtful for Dallas. The Mavs lost on Wednesday without Doncic and now face the hottest team in the NBA – Phoenix.
The Suns have won 10 straight and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. The Suns are fifth in the NBA in scoring while Dallas is 23rd. Without Doncic, the Suns have what it takes to cover the 7.5.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Best Bet: THUNDER +13
Double-digit point spreads are scary in the NBA. The Bucks are clearly better than the Thunder, but OKC has been playing better lately. They have actually won five of their last seven games. More importantly, they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight.
Surprisingly, Milwaukee is just 6-9 ATS for the season and 1-5 ATS when playing at home. Trusting the Bucks to cover a 13-point spread at home – even with Khris Middleton back in the lineup – is too much to ask.
Orlando Magic vs. Brooklyn Nets
Best Bet: OVER 211.5
There’s no question the Nets are the better team in this matchup. The bigger question is can they cover a 12.5-point spread? Brooklyn has been a double-digit favorite once in its last ten games. They covered as 12-point favorites against Detroit. They were also 9.5-point favorites against the Pistons again and New Orleans. They failed to cover in those games.
One thing is certain though. The Nets – with NBA leading scorer Kevin Durant, James Harden, and company – can score. While they aren’t at last year’s pace, the Nets average 107.9 points per game. When you couple that with one of the NBA’s worst defenses, there is the potential for a lot of scoring tonight.
Orlando ranks 22nd in the league in points allowed per game, 109.3. While they don’t score a lot (100.2 ppg), their defense is going to push this total Over. The total has gone Over in four of Brooklyn’s last five games and five of the last seven when they have played the Magic.
