UFC 286 Odds, Picks and Preview

UFC 286 Odds, Picks and Preview

UFC 286 is on Saturday at the O2 Arena in London, England. With the event being hosted in the UK, the action will start earlier than normal. The main card will begin at 6:00 PM ET on pay-per-view.

The early prelims will start at 2:00 PM ET and the prelims will get underway at 4:00 PM ET.

Leon Edwards will look to defend his UFC welterweight title against Kamaru Usman in the main event. Four of the five main card fights feature fighters ranked in their respective weight classes.

Edwards vs. Usman Predictions

Fight Odds: Edwards (+205) vs. Usman (-245)

Edwards (20-3-0-1) landed a perfect kick to knockout Usman (20-2) in their fight last August. That was the last time both fighters have been in the cage. This is the third fight between these two fighters.

Usman defeated Edwards back in 2015. Usman averages 3.01 takedowns per 15 minutes and he landed five takedowns in the loss to Edwards. He just has to avoid the big shots from Edwards.

Edwards only has 7 TKO/KO wins. Usman has a 2” reach advantage, plus he has the edge in striking (4.55 SLpM vs. 2.59 SLpM). I have Usman winning, but the best value is on this fight going the distance.

Best Bet: Fight Goes to Decision (-145)

Gaethje vs. Fiziev Predictions

Fight Odds: Gaethje (+175) vs. Fiziev (-225)

Justin Gaethje (23-4) has been tapped out in two of his last three fights. Gaethje has 19 TKO/KO wins and has the power to knockout anyone. Rafael Fiziev (12-1) has been knocked out once.

Gaethje averages 7.46 SLpM, but he also averages 7.85 SApM. Fiziev averages 4.81 SLpM and 4.86 SApM. Gaethje has been stopped in all four of his career losses. This is going to be a war.

Neither fighter will be looking to take the fight to the mat. Some big shots are going to be landed and this fight will end by stoppage. My best bet is on Fiziev winning inside the distance.

Best Bet: Fiziev ITD (+110)

Nelson vs. Barberena Predictions

Fight Odds: Nelson (-375) vs. Barberena (+280)

Gunnar Nelson (18-5-1) is a huge favorite against Bryan Barberena (18-9). Nelson earned a decision win against Takashi Sato last year in his first fight since 2019, which also snapped a two-fight losing streak.

Barberena is coming off a loss to Rafael dos Anjos (Submission). Nelson averages 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes and will look to take the fight to the mat. Barberena only has 54% takedown defense.

Barberena averages 5.92 SLpM (Nelson averages 1.83 SLpM), but it’ll be difficult to land many shots if he’s on his back for a lot of the fight. I’m betting on Nelson to win by decision.

Best Bet: Nelson to Win by Decision (+240)

UFC 286 Betting Lines

Here are the complete odds for every fight scheduled for UFC 286 on Saturday:

Leon Edwards (+205) vs. Kamaru Usman (-245)

Justin Gaethje (+175) vs. Rafael Fiziev (-225)

Gunnar Nelson (-375) vs. Bryan Barberena (+280)

Jennifer Maia (+150) vs. Casey O’Neill (-185)

Marvin Vettori (-275) vs. Roman Dolidze (+210)

Jack Shore (-550) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (+390)

Chris Duncan (-115) vs. Omar Morales (-105)

Sam Patterson (-300) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (+240)

Muhammad Mokaev (-900) vs. Jafel Filho (+575)

Lerone Murphy (-185) vs. Gabriel Santos (+150)

Christian Leroy Duncan (-225) vs. Dusko Todorovic (+185)

Jake Hadley (-450) vs. Malcolm Gordon (+325)

Joanne Wood (-175) vs. Luana Carolina (+145)

Jai Herbert (+165) vs. Ludovit Klein (-210)

Juliana Miller (-500) vs. Veronica Hardy (+350)