UFC on ESPN 15 is this Saturday at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Pedro Munhoz will fight veteran Frankie Edgar in the main event and he comes into the fight as a heavy favorite.
UFC 252 was a mess for me. Who had O’Malley losing, let alone in the opening round? There were multiple big upsets on Saturday, but at least Miocic came through for me.
I ended up 1-3 (-2 Units), which ended the winning streak I had going.
Bet on the Fights with Online UFC Bookies.
Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar Predictions
Fight Odds: Munhoz (-250) vs. Edgar (+200)
Munhoz (18-4-0-1) is ranked #5 in the bantamweight division, so this is going to be a very tough fight for Edgar (23-8-1) in his debut at this weight. This is the third weight class Edgar has fought in.
Edgar is a warrior, but well past his prime. Since 2016, he’s only 3-4 in the UFC. Last year, he lost a decision to Holloway and then he was knocked out in the first round by Jung.
After losing a decision to Sterling last June, Munhoz can’t afford a loss to Edgar.
Frankie will have a 3’’ reach advantage, but Munhoz has a lot more power. Prior to the Sterling loss, Munhoz had picked up two first round TKO wins against Caraway and Garbrandt.
Munhoz averages 5.29 SLpM (Edgar averages 3.60 SLpM) and had KO power. Edgar’s chin isn’t what it once was and he has suffered two knockouts since 2018 – the only two TKO/KO losses he has.
Edgar has only landed two takedowns in his last five fights as well and Munhoz has 81% TDD.
Best Bet: Pedro Munhoz ITD (-145)
Alonzo Menifield vs. Ovince St. Preux Predictions
Fight Odds: Menifield (-140) vs. St. Preux (+110)
St. Preux (24-14) is just 2-4 since 2018. He made the move to heavyweight in his last fight, but he lost a split decision to Rothwell and now he’s back down to LHW to take on Menifield (9-1).
Menifield is a beast and already has 8 TKO/KO wins, but he lost his last fight to Clark, as he couldn’t finish the fight in the first round and he was completely gassed in the 2nd/3rd rounds.
That loss was in June, so it’s unlikely Menifield has improved his cardio much.
He’s always going to have a chance to finish fights early, but my money is on the underdog. OSP is a relatively smart fighter and he should realize trading early with Menifield is a terrible game plan.
OSP has eight submission wins and he’s dangerous on the mat. If he can survive the early onslaught from Menifield, St. Preux has the skills to take the fight to the mat and tap out his opponent.
Best Bet: Ovince St. Preux (+110) at America’s Bookie
UFC on ESPN 15 Underdog Special
This is a weak fight card and I’m not going to be targeting too many fights. At the time of publishing, there are only four main card fights and one features Mike Rodriguez vs. Marcin Prachnio.
Rodriguez is 1-2-0-1 in the UFC and Prachnio is 0-2. How this is a main card fight is beyond me, but the problem is dealing with travel restrictions, which impacted multiple fights on this card.
Anyways, my UFC on ESPN 15 underdog best bet is Austin Hubbard.
Hubbard (12-4) is only 2-2 since joining the promotion last year. Joe Solecki (9-2) won his UFC debut last December against Wiman by decision. Solecki utilized his wrestling (4 takedowns) mixed in with some ground and pound to win, but Hubbard has fought better wrestlers than Solecki.
Madsen dominated Hubbard two fights ago – landing eight takedowns in a decision win. Hubbard bounced back, though, with a win against Rohskopf (TKO) who is a noted wrestler as well.
Solecki is more unproven than Hubbard at this point and shouldn’t be favored.
Best Bet: Austin Hubbard (+120) at America’s Bookie
UFC on ESPN 15 Parlay Predictions
I’m going to be cautious with my parlay bets this week, as there are a lot of unproven fighters on this fight card and we could see a lot of upsets again like at UFC 252 this past weekend.
Here’s my UFC on ESPN 15 parlay best bet:
Munhoz ML + Menifield / St. Preux Fight to End ITD (-110 Odds)
Munhoz should have little problem defeating Edgar in the main event.
I also can’t see the Menifield vs. OSP fight going the distance. If Menifield gasses again, which I think is the most likely outcome, OSP will be able to submit him unlike Clark.
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UFC on ESPN 15 Betting Lines
Pedro Munhoz (-250) vs. Frankie Edgar (+200)
Alonzo Menifield (-140) vs. Ovince St. Preux (+110)
Mike Rodriguez (-237) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+187)
Daniel Rodriguez (-185) vs. Takashi Sato (+155)
Mizuki Inoue (-150) vs. Amanda Lemos (+120)
Joe Solecki (-150) vs. Austin Hubbard (+120)
Mariya Agapova (-1100) vs. Shana Dobson (+750)
Ike Villanueva (-125) vs. Jorge Gonzalez (-105)
Timur Valiev (-510) vs. Mark Striegl (+380)
Carlton Minus (-140) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (+110)
Dwight Grant vs. TBD
