UFC Vegas 59 (UFC on ESPN 40) is on Saturday, August 6th 2022.
The event will be hosted at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas and will be aired free in the USA and Canada. The prelims start at 7:00 PM ET and the main card gets underway at 10:00 PM ET.
Thiago Santos will fight Jamahal Hill in the main event, but the more intriguing fight is the co-main event between Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal. Ariane Lipski is also featured on the main card.
There are also two TUF 30 Finals (Team Pena vs. Team Nunes) on the main card.
Mohammed Usman will fight Zac Pauga in the TUF 30 Heavyweight Final and Brogan Walker will take on Juliana Miller in the TUF 30 Women’s Flyweight Final. There’s plenty of action to wager on.
Santos vs. Hill Predictions
Fight Odds: Santos (+245) vs. Hill (-295)
Santos (22-10) is on the tail end of his UFC career. Dating back to 2019, Santos is 1-4 with his lone win coming against Johnny Walker (Decision) last year. Hill (10-1-0-1) is 2-1 since last year.
Hill has won two consecutive fights against Jimmy Crute (KO) and Walker (KO). He was knocked out by Paul Craig prior to that and before that he knocked out Ovince St. Preux.
Hill is a southpaw with a 3” reach advantage and has plenty of power. He has six TKO/KO wins. He also averages an impressive 7.06 SLpM, while Santos only averages 3.77 SLpM.
Neither fighter has much of a ground game, so they’ll likely exchange blows in the stand-up. This fight is scheduled for five rounds and Santos has gone a full five rounds in three of his last five fights.
Santos has proven durable in his recent fights. I have little doubt Hill will win, but I’m not betting on the ML at the current odds. My best bet is on over 2.5 rounds in the UFC Vegas 59 main event.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (+155)
Luque vs. Neal Predictions
Fight Odds: Luque (-180) vs. Neal (+155)
Luque (21-8-1) is 4-1 since 2020, but he’s coming off a loss to Belal Muhammad (Decision). He won four in a row prior to that by stoppage, including submission wins against Tyron Woodley and Michael Chiesa.
Neal started out in the UFC with five consecutive wins, which includes four stoppage victories.
However, Neal is 1-2 in his last three fights (all went the distance) and hasn’t looked impressive. He won against Santiago Ponzinibbio last December, but lost to Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny.
This is another fight that’ll likely remain standing for the majority of the time. Luque averages 5.30 SLpM and 5.18 SApM, while Neal averages 4.63 SLpM and 4.91 SApM.
Both of these guys are capable finishers, but I’m betting on Luque to win in the co-main event.
Best Bet: Vincente Luque ML (-180)
TUF 30 Finals Predictions
Fight Odds: Usman (+210) vs. Pauga (-250)
Prior to TUF 30, Usman (7-2) lost his last fight against Brandon Sayles (Sub) because he gassed. Pauga (5-0) has four career wins by decision, so gassing shouldn’t be a problem for him.
Usman is bigger than Pauga and will have a 3” reach advantage, but Pauga looks much stronger. Pauga should win and will feature on my parlays, but predicting if he can finish Usman or not is a tougher task.
Fight Odds: Walker (+100) vs. Miller (-120)
Walker (7-2) is the more experienced in this fight and that should prove helpful. Miller (2-1) is quite a bit younger (26 vs. 34). This is one of the toughest fights on the card to predict.
I believe Walker should have the slight edge in striking and if she’s able to defend takedowns, she’ll win this fight. I wouldn’t bet the house on her, but Walker presents some value at even money.
UFC Vegas 59 Underdog Special
There aren’t many underdogs to like on this card, but I’ll be betting on Augusto Sakai.
Fight Odds: Sakai (+200) vs. Spivak (-240)
Sakai (15-4-1) has lost three consecutive fights by TKO/KO. He lost those fights to Alistair Overeem, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Tai Tuivasa who were all tough match-ups.
He’ll be fighting Sergey Spivak (14-3) who is 5-3 since joining the UFC. Spivak is coming off a victory against Greg Hardy (TKO) earlier this year, but he lost to Tom Aspinall the fight prior (TKO).
Both fighters have power – Sakai has 11 TKO/KO wins and Spivak has 6 TKO/KO wins. Both have also been knocked out multiple times. Sakai has a striking edge (5.04 SLpM vs. 3.79 SLpM).
The problem with Sakai has been his striking defense (4.09 SApM). If Sakai can avoid eating big shots he has a chance to pull off the upset. He needs to win this fight to stay in the top 15 heavyweight rankings.
UFC Vegas 59 Parlay Picks
There are lots of opportunities to bet on parlays for UFC Vegas 59.
Here are a few of the parlays I’ll be betting on this Saturday:
Hill ML + Luque ML + Pauga ML (+191 Payout Odds)
Hill ML + Pauga ML + Oleksiejczuk ML + McKinney ML (+145 Payout Odds)
Hill ML + Oleksiejczuk ML + McKinney ML + Lipski ML (+175 Payout Odds)
I’m going heavy on Hill in the main event at UFC Vegas 59, as I can’t see him losing.
Two bankers for parlays on Saturday are also Michal Oleksiejczuk (-580) vs. Sam Alvey (+440) and Terrance McKinney (-850) vs. Erick Gonzalez (+600). These are the two biggest favorites.
I’m also using Ariane Lipski (-175) on a parlay to defeat Priscila Cachoeira (+150).
UFC Vegas 59 Betting Lines
Here are the latest betting odds for UFC Vegas 59:
Thiago Santos (+245) vs. Jamahal Hill (-295)
Vicente Luque (-180) vs. Geoff Neal (+155)
Mohammed Usman (+210) vs. Zac Pauga (-250)
Brogan Walker (+100) vs. Juliana Miller (-120)
Augusto Sakai (+200) vs. Sergey Spivak (-240)
Ariane Lipski (-175) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+150)
Sam Alvey (+440) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (-580)
Terrance McKinney (-850) vs. Erick Gonzalez (+600)
Bryan Battle (-260) vs. Takashi Soto (+220)
Jason Witt (+195) vs. Josh Quinlan (-230)
Cory McKenna (-225) vs. Miranda Granger (+190)
Mayra Bueno Silva (+105) vs. Stephanie Egger (-125)
